CRISIL Ltd, the leading global analytics company, expects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to touch 6% in fiscal 2024, compared with 7% estimated by the National Statistics Office (NSO) for fiscal 2023.

• A complex interplay of geopolitical events, stubbornly high inflation — and sharp rate hikes to counter that — have turned the global environment gloomier.
• On the domestic front, the peak impact of the rate hikes — 250 basis points since May 2022, which has pushed interest rates above pre-Covid-19 levels — will play out in fiscal 2024.
• Consumer inflation is expected to moderate to 5.0% on average in fiscal 2024 from 6.8% in fiscal 2023, owing to high-base effect and some softening of crude and commodity prices.
• A good rabi harvest would help cool food inflation, while the slowing economy should moderate core inflation.