Context: Recently, The United Nations’ latest report titled ‘UN World Population Prospect 2022’, was released.

UN World Population Prospect 2022

• The global population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022, signalling major improvements in public health that have lowered the risk of dying and increased life expectancy.

• Asia and Africa have driven much of this growth.

• They are expected to drive the next billion by 2037, while Europe's contribution will be negative due to declining population.

• Falling mortality rate first led to a spectacular population growth, peaking at 2.1% per year between 1962 and 1965.

• Between 1950 and 1987, world population doubled from 2.5 billion to 5 billion.

• For the increase from 7 to 8 billion, around 70 per cent of the added population was in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

• In 2022, the two most populous regions were both in Asia: Eastern and South-Eastern Asia with 2.3 billion people (29 per cent of the global population) and Central and Southern Asia with 2.1 billion (26 per cent).

• Between now and 2050, the global increase in the population under the age 65 will occur entirely in low income and lower-middle-income countries, since population growth in high-income and upper-middle income countries will occur only among those aged 65 or more.

• China and India with more than 1.4 billion each, accounted for larger parts of the global population in 2022. 

• The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under one per cent in 2020.

• 60% of the global population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below replacement level — up from 40% in 1990.

• All South Asian nations — India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka — have seen high levels of emigration in recent years.

Projections of the report

• The global population could grow to around 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100.

• India will have a population of 1.66 billion in 2050, going ahead of China’s 1.37 billion around that time. 

• 8 per cent of India's population is between 15-64 years old in 2022, while people aged 65 and older were seven per cent of the population.

• India will surpass China by 2023 as the world’s most populous country while 8 countries, namely India, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo, the United Republic of Tanzania, Pakistan and the Philippines will have more than half of the projected increase in global population by 2050.

• Populations of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by one per cent or more between 2022 and 2050, owing to sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated rates of emigration.

• But world’s 46 least developed countries are among the world’s fastest growing.

World Population Prospects

• Prepared by: The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.

• It presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends.

• It is a biennial publication.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India

• 31 states and Union Territories in India have reached the [population] replacement level of 2.1.

• India’s TFR has declined from 2.2 to 2.0 at the national level.

• TFR is above the national average in states like Bihar, Meghalaya, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh.

• The main reasons for the decline in fertility include an increase in the adoption of modern family planning methods and a reduction in the unmet need for family planning.

What are the concerns with the rise in population for the world?

• Globally, the population is rising but the fact is that there has been demographic decline with a low fertility rate. It is also expected that population graying will be dominant in this century.

What does rising population implies for India?

• India is set to become the world’s most populous country in the next year.

• However, with the increase in population, the fertility rate in India has also declined and has dropped below the replacement level. Therefore, the challenge lies with India in using its demographic dividend.

What is the current situation of India and what is the way forward?

• The share of the working age population peaked at 66% in 2012 globally whereas the working age population in India stood at 70% in 2020. This shows that India’s performance compared to the world is not up to the mark.

• Research also indicates that in India the economic benefit from the demographic transition has been lower than other Asian countries.

• Further, the proportion of the overall working age population in India was at 46% in 2021 while the global average was 59%.

• The situation is poorer when it comes to the employment of women in India. World Bank’s data shows that women employment in India is at only 19% compared to a global average of 46%.

• Therefore, India needs to employ more women, improve its overall human capital quality by skilling them and come up with the right policy. This will help India to utilize its demographic dividend efficiently.