Context: A recent sci-fi novel(Ministry of the Future) describes what will happen in the future if countries fail to implement a carbon mitigation programme.

Key highlights from the novel on India and Climate Change

• The novel appreciated the efforts of the Indian government such as spraying sulphur dioxide on clouds in the Indian Ocean. As this spraying would reduce solar radiation and bring the temperature down.

• A massive heat wave will strike Uttar Pradesh which will kill millions. The generations to come will face severe and relatively long heat episodes, floods, droughts and water uncertainty, more storms, sea-level rise, biodiversity loss and much more.

• The novel proposes measures to cope with the consequences of catastrophic climate change.

Geo-engineering

• It is an umbrella term for various experimental technologies designed to deliberately alter the climate system to reduce the impacts of global warming.

• It basically compensates for the significant shortfall in mitigation options that are necessary to keep temperature rise below the agreed target level.

Various Geo-engineering solutions to combat climate change are:-

• Cloud seeding: Cloud Seeding is a process to induce rain in moisture-filled clouds by sprinkling the upper reaches of clouds with chemicals such as common salt or silver iodide, usually with the help of jets fixed to airplanes.

• Usually, rain occurs when moisture content in a cloud becomes too heavy and can no longer be held. Cloud seeding aims to accelerate this process by making more chemical nuclei available to facilitate the process.

• Stratosphere aerosol injection (SAI): Most aerosols cause atmospheric cooling, either by directly reflecting incoming solar radiation or indirectly through their impact on clouds. For example, anthropogenic aerosols alone have cooled global surface temperatures by up to 0.8 °C over the last century.

• They are short-lived in the atmosphere and more regionally variable relative to longer-lived emissions, like carbon dioxide. But there is very little scientific data to assess the impact and the uncertainty.

• Solar Radiation Modification (SRM): SRM aims to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space, thereby reducing surface temperatures. 

• Scientists are proposing to do this by a variety of techniques such as making clouds brighter, thereby reflecting sunlight like a mirror. Or by thinning/ removing the ‘cirrus clouds’ that absorb solar radiations and warm the earth. These technologies are attracting the most attention.

• Any SAI or SRM action will have cross-border effects.

What needs to be kept in mind while promoting geoengineering solutions?

• The nations must accept that geoengineering is a precautionary measure and it should not dilute the pressure on major emitters to do more to reduce their carbon emissions.

• The process of establishing a credible multilateral process for dialogue and decision must start soon because the risk of wrong decisions is very high.

Key Solutions

• The success of geoengineering solutions depends on 

• a) A cooperative scientific research process to analyse the available information for major volcanic eruptions that altered solar radiation, 

• b) The governments must plan and evaluate pilot experiments and multilaterally approve them,

• c) The world needs to agree on a global agreement that prohibits unilateral action and sets up a process for a multilateral agreement on geoengineering initiatives.

• European Commission can take the lead in this as it will require an inter-country mechanism even for its own inter-membership decision on this issue.