Grey Rhino Event

Geography Disasters and Management issues

15-Sep-25

Grey Rhino Event

Context:
The Wayanad landslide in Kerala (July 2024) has been classified as a “Grey Rhino Event” in the 2025 report Sliding Earth, Scattered Lives, highlighting how repeated scientific warnings were ignored despite clear evidence of ecological vulnerability and extreme rainfall risks.

What is a Grey Rhino Event?

A "Grey Rhino" is a highly probable, high-impact event that is clearly visible and foreseeable, yet often neglected or under-addressed by policymakers and institutions until it causes severe damage.

Origin of the Concept

Coined by: Michele Wucker, U.S. policy analyst
Introduced in: The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (2016)
Developed as a counterpoint to the “Black Swan” theory (which refers to rare, unpredictable events)

Key Characteristics:

Feature	Description
Predictable	The risk is well-known and documented (e.g., Wayanad’s fragile slopes identified in multiple ESA and ISRO reports)
Visible Warning Signs	Clear early indicators (e.g., over 600 mm rainfall in 48 hours triggered the landslide, as predicted by climate models)
Neglected Response	Warnings often ignored due to bureaucratic inertia, political priorities, or economic pressures
High Impact	Causes widespread loss — human lives, infrastructure, biodiversity
Actionable	Unlike black swans, grey rhinos can be mitigated through early policy action, zoning, or risk reduction measures

Grey Rhino vs Black Swan

Parameter	Grey Rhino	Black Swan
Probability	High	Extremely Low
Predictability	Known and visible	Unpredictable
Response	Often ignored	Cannot be planned for
Example	Climate-induced landslides, financial crises	COVID-19, 9/11 attacks

Why It Matters:

Improves Risk Governance

Helps in prioritising evident but overlooked threats, such as environmental degradation, urban flooding, or landslides.

Disaster Preparedness

Encourages proactive action: early warnings, land-use planning, evacuation protocols, and eco-sensitive development.

Policy Relevance

Drives accountability by identifying where governments failed to act despite clear risks.

Case Study: Wayanad Landslide as a Grey Rhino

Background: Wayanad’s slopes have long been flagged as ecologically fragile.
Ignored Warnings: Repeated recommendations for land-use regulation, afforestation, and evacuation were sidelined.
Trigger: Intense rainfall (600 mm in 48 hours)
Impact: Displacement, fatalities, and major loss of biodiversity and farmland.
Lesson: A classic grey rhino — visible, warned about, but unaddressed until disaster struck.

Conclusion:

“Grey Rhino” events serve as a wake-up call for policymakers to stop ignoring the obvious. In an era of escalating climate risks and environmental degradation, recognizing and acting on grey rhinos is critical to build resilience, reduce disaster losses, and ensure sustainable development.

Source: Down To Earth

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