Context

China has approved the construction of a massive 60 GW hydropower dam at the Great Bend of the Yarlung Zangbo River (known as the Brahmaputra in India) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). This move has triggered significant strategic, ecological, and geopolitical concerns for downstream countries—India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh.

About the Medog Dam Project

• Location:
  Medog County in TAR, near the Great Bend where the Yarlung Zangbo takes a U-turn southward into Arunachal Pradesh, becoming the Brahmaputra.
• Geographical Significance:
  Located in a high-rainfall, seismically active Eastern Himalayan zone—an ecologically fragile and tectonically volatile area near the Indo-China border.
• Capacity:
  Designed to generate 60,000 MW, making it the largest hydroelectric project in the world.

Strategic Significance

• Proximity to Disputed Territory:
  Situated near Upper Siang in Arunachal Pradesh, a region China claims as "South Tibet," increasing its leverage in regional disputes.
• Hydro-Political Advantage:
  Gives China greater control over the flow of the Brahmaputra, shifting the power dynamics among the riparian countries.

Geopolitical Implications

• Upstream Control:
  China's unilateral decision-making disrupts the balance of riparian rights, tilting water governance in its favour.
• Lack of Legal Mechanisms:
  None of the four riparian countries (China, India, Bhutan, Bangladesh) are signatories to the UN Watercourses Convention (1997), leaving a legal vacuum on transboundary water-sharing.
• Border Disputes Intensified:
  Adds a hydro-political dimension to India–China tensions, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh.
• India’s Countermove:
  India has proposed the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project as a strategic response, reflecting a reactive approach rather than a proactive policy.

Ecological and Livelihood Concerns

• Disruption of Natural Flow:
  Reservoir storage for power generation may reduce perennial flows downstream, affecting irrigation, aquatic ecosystems, and sediment transport.
• Risk to Downstream Communities:
  Sudden water releases can cause flash floods, undermining traditional agro-pastoral livelihoods in Assam and Bangladesh.
• Seismic and GLOF Hazards:
  The dam sits in a high-risk earthquake zone (site of the 1950 Assam–Tibet earthquake) and is vulnerable to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
• Impact on Monsoonal Patterns:
  Altered flow regimes can disrupt groundwater recharge and seasonal water availability critical for agriculture in Northeast India.
• Biodiversity Threats:
  Changes to aquatic habitats and migration routes could endanger endemic species and threaten riverine biodiversity.

Strategic Alternatives for India

1. Riparian Diplomacy:
   Lead initiatives for eco-regional water cooperation, shifting from competitive dam-building to collaborative river governance.
2. Strengthening ELM:
   Improve the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) with China for real-time data sharing, risk assessment, and transparency.
3. Ecological Stewardship:
   Advocate for a transboundary sustainability framework prioritizing ecological balance over megaproject dominance.
4. Disaster Preparedness:
   Enhance early warning systems, flood-resilient infrastructure, and community-level adaptation strategies.
5. Regional Coordination:
   Propose a Brahmaputra River Commission involving India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh for integrated river basin management, flood planning, and environmental conservation.

Conclusion

The Brahmaputra is more than a river—it is a cultural, ecological, and economic lifeline for millions across the Eastern Himalayas. While the Medog Dam may offer enormous energy potential, it risks compromising regional stability, environmental integrity, and the livelihoods of downstream communities. A shift is needed—from hydro-hegemony to hydrological harmony—to ensure sustainable and equitable water governance in South Asia.

Source: The Hindu