Issues and Analysis on Yemen - Ceasefire Broken for UPSC Civil Services Examination (General Studies) Preparation

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    Yemen - Ceasefire Broken

    Why in news?

    • Renewed clashes broke out between Houthi rebel fighters and Saudi-backed pro-government forces in Yemen.

    What is the recent happening?

    • The tussle in Yemen is essentially between Yemen’s Shia Houthi rebels loyal to the former President and the forces loyal to the current government.
    • [The former is Ali Abdullah Saleh and the latter is Present Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.]
    • The two factions claim to constitute the Yemeni government.
    • Following the December 2018 ceasefire agreement, Houthi rebels were withdrawing from three of Yemen’s ports.
    • But while the withdrawal was under way, Houthis, who are reportedly getting support from Iran, allegedly carried out a drone attack on a Saudi pipeline.
    • In retaliation, Riyadh launched airstrikes on Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen controlled by the rebels.
    • The attack killed at least six civilians, including children.
    • Yemen now risks falling back to the pre-ceasefire days of conflict.
    • Fighting is broken out in parts of the government-controlled south too.

    How has Saudi's role been?

    • Saudi Arabia started its Yemen military campaign in March 2015 with the goal of driving Houthis out of territories they captured.
    • Four years of war have devastated the country of Yemen.
    • According to the UN, at least 7,000 civilians have been killed.
    • Thousands of others have died due to disease, poor health care and malnutrition.
    • The blockade Saudi Arabia imposed on Yemen steadily worsened its hunger problem and health-care crisis, and is now on the brink of a famine.
    • Even when the ceasefire was holding, the Saudis did not halt bombing Yemen.
    • Saudi Arabia appears to be frustrated that it is not able to defeat the Houthis even after years of heavy bombing.
    • The Houthis, on their part, continue to provoke the Saudis through cross-border rocket and drone attacks, both affecting the Yemenis severely.

    Why is the recent attack so dangerous?

    • The resumption of hostilities is more dangerous in the regional angle.
    • Tensions are already on the rise in West Asia over the U.S.-Iran standoff.
    • The U.S. had earlier warned against possible attacks by either Iran or Iran-backed militias against American interests or its allies in the region.
    • U.S. has also deployed an aircraft carrier and a bomber squad to the Gulf.
    • Immediately after the pipeline was attacked, the Saudis blamed Iran for ordering it.
    • Both Iran and the Houthis have refuted this allegation.
    • Whatever the case be, the incident and subsequent Saudi airstrikes show how the Yemeni conflict is entangled with the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

    What is the way forward?

    • Moving ahead, the Hodeida model should be replicated elsewhere in Yemen.
    • Hodeidah is the city wherefrom Yemen’s government and Houthi rebels agreed on the first phase of a withdrawal.
    • The ceasefire took effect in this Red Sea port city and both the rebels and government forces showed compliance till the rebels pulled out recently.
    • It is only safe if the parties to the conflict continue talks under international mediation.
    • For this to be achieved, the Houthis should decouple themselves from the regional politics.
    • They should stay focussed on resolving differences with the government and rebuilding the war-torn country.
    • Importantly, Saudi Arabia should get out of Yemen.

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