The Sample Registration System (SRS) Report 2021 released by the Registrar General of India sheds light on the country’s evolving demographic patterns, including fertility trends, age distribution, and marriage patterns. This report offers valuable insights into the population dynamics that will shape India’s future social and economic landscape.

Key Highlights of the SRS Report

1. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Remains Constant:
   The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), a key indicator of population growth, has remained steady at 2.0 in 2021, signaling a crucial milestone for India. This means that, on average, a woman in India is expected to have two children in her lifetime. With a TFR of 2.0, India’s fertility rate has now dipped below the replacement level of 2.1, which is the level at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration. This marks a significant shift from previous decades when the fertility rate was much higher, reflecting ongoing improvements in family planning, healthcare, and education.

2. State-wise Variations in Fertility Rates:
   The SRS report also highlights regional disparities in fertility rates across the country:

• Bihar reported the highest fertility rate at 3.0, indicating higher birth rates in the state.
• Delhi and West Bengal recorded the lowest fertility rates at 1.4, indicating fertility levels far below replacement.
• States such as Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra, and Punjab reported fertility rates between 1.5 and 1.6, indicating that fertility levels are generally below replacement in these states.

1. Rural vs. Urban Fertility Rates:
   The report also distinguishes fertility trends between urban and rural areas:

• Urban areas showed a lower TFR of 1.6, reflective of greater access to education, healthcare, and career opportunities, which influence delayed marriages and fewer children.
• Rural areas recorded a higher TFR of 2.2, suggesting that fertility rates remain higher in regions with limited access to such resources.

1. Changes in Age Distribution:
   The SRS report highlights significant demographic shifts:

• The proportion of children (aged 0-14 years) in India’s population has declined from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021. This suggests that India’s population is aging gradually.
• The proportion of the working-age population (15-59 years) has increased from 53.4% in 1971 to 66.2% in 2021, indicating a growing workforce.
• The elderly population (60 years and above) has grown from 6% in 1971 to 9% in 2021, indicating the country’s aging demographic and the emerging challenges of elderly care.

1. Marriage Patterns:
   One of the contributing factors to India’s declining fertility rate is the increasing age of marriage. The average age at marriage for women has risen significantly:

   • The mean age at marriage for females has increased from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021. This trend reflects changing social norms, greater educational attainment, and career opportunities for women, all of which contribute to delayed childbearing and fewer children.

Implications for India’s Demographic Future

The SRS 2021 report carries important implications for India’s future:

• Demographic Dividend: India’s large working-age population offers a demographic dividend, which can fuel economic growth. However, it also places pressure on education, employment, and healthcare systems to provide for the needs of a younger population.
• Aging Population: With the increasing proportion of elderly people in the country, there will be heightened demand for healthcare services and pension systems to address the challenges posed by an aging population.
• Regional Disparities: The regional variation in fertility rates calls for targeted policies to address specific needs, especially in states with high fertility rates. There is a need to focus on education, healthcare, and family planning in such regions to reduce fertility rates further.

Conclusion

The SRS report underscores the significant demographic transitions India is undergoing. The stabilization of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below replacement levels is a sign of progress in family planning and healthcare. However, the changing age structure of the population, coupled with the challenges posed by regional disparities and an aging population, requires careful policy planning to ensure balanced development and sustainable economic growth.

As India moves toward a population stabilization phase, it will be crucial to continue investments in education, healthcare, and women’s empowerment to sustain these positive demographic trends and address emerging challenges.