As per Crisil India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be steady at 6.5% in fiscal 2026 despite uncertainties stemming from geopolitical turns and trade-related issues led by US tariff actions.

• The forecast is based on two assumptions, Crisil said at its flagship India Outlook seminar today. These include another spell of normal monsoon and commodity prices continuing to remain soft. 
• Cooling food inflation, the tax benefits announced in the Union Budget 2025-2026, and lower borrowing costs are expected to drive discretionary consumption.
• Growth is now returning to pre-pandemic rates as fiscal impulse normalises and the high-base effect wears off. Even with that, the high frequency Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data reveals that India maintains its pole position among major economies.