Context:

• Haryana, a pivotal agricultural state in India, is currently facing a severe winter rainfall deficit of 59% during the months of January and February 2025. This alarming shortfall, coupled with unseasonably high temperatures, poses significant threats to the state's rabi crops, particularly wheat, which is a staple food and a major contributor to the region's economy.

Key Points:

• Between January 1 and February 20, 2025, Haryana recorded only 11.1 mm of rainfall, starkly contrasting with the normal average of 27.2 mm for this period.
• This 59% deficit is not uniform across the state; districts such as Kaithal and Karnal have reported deficits of 89% and 87%, respectively. Other districts like Faridabad and Palwal have also experienced significant shortfalls of 36% and 33%. In contrast, Gurgaon has fared slightly better with a deficit of only 9%. This rainfall deficiency is part of a broader trend affecting northern India, with neighboring Punjab also reporting a 65% shortfall during the same timeframe.

Impact on wheat production

• The implications of this rainfall deficit are dire for wheat production, which is critical for both local and national food security. Farmers, such as Tej Maan from Hisar, anticipate a staggering 40-50% reduction in wheat yields due to the lack of moisture and elevated temperatures.
•  Historically, Haryana produced approximately 11.8 million tons of wheat in 2024 and 10.5 million tons in 2023, despite facing rainfall deficits. However, the current climatic conditions are more severe, raising concerns about the sustainability of wheat production in the state.
• In addition to wheat, other crops such as barley, mustard (oilseeds), and various vegetables, including cauliflower and peas, are also at risk. These crops thrive in cooler temperatures and require adequate moisture during their growth phases, conditions that are currently absent.

Climatic factors and groundwater concerns

• The winter of 2025 has seen maximum and minimum temperatures across Haryana significantly exceed normal levels. This warm weather has disrupted the critical growth stages of wheat, further jeopardizing yields.
• The reduced rainfall has led to an increased reliance on groundwater for irrigation, exacerbating an already critical issue of groundwater depletion in Haryana. The state has been grappling with declining groundwater levels for years, and the current situation could worsen this crisis.

Economic implications

• Haryana is a major contributor to India’s food grain reserves, and a decline in wheat production could have far-reaching consequences for national food security.
• It could lead to increased market prices, affecting not only farmers but also consumers. Additionally, farmers are likely to face increased costs for irrigation, further straining their incomes due to lower yields.

Causes of the deficit

• The primary reason for the deficient winter rains in northern India has been attributed to weak western disturbances. While these disturbances have been frequent, they have lacked the intensity required to bring substantial rainfall to the plains.
• Furthermore, climate change is increasingly recognized as a factor that alters weather patterns and contributes to temperature anomalies, complicating the agricultural landscape.