Context: Recently, Bahrain and UAE have signed a historic agreement with Israel aimed at normalising relations between the two sides. Termed at Abraham Accord this peace deal comes almost 26 years after a similar agreement between Israel and Jordan in 1994. 

Background

• Israel had signed peace agreements with Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. But the UAE, along with most other Arab nations, did not recognise Israel. Thus, UAE which was formed in 1971 had no formal diplomatic or economic relations with Israel.
• Under this peace agreement, Israel confirmed that it would not annex large parts of the occupied West Bank.
• The UAE relied on white-collar Palestinians in creating its nation. Over time, it maintained its stance that Israel should allow the creation of a Palestinian state on land it seized in the 1967 war.
• Israel and the Gulf Arab states began establishing tentative links after the Oslo peace accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1993.

What is the deal?

• The deal halts Israeli annexation plans, the Palestinians have repeatedly urged Arab governments not to normalize ties with Israel until a peace agreement establishing an independent Palestinian state is reached.

Significance

• The announcement makes the UAE the first Gulf Arab state to do so and only the third Arab nation to have active diplomatic ties to Israel.
• For Israel, the announcement comes after years of boasting by Israeli PM Netanyahu that his government enjoys closer ties to Arab nations than publicly acknowledged.
• Both the UAE and Israel are the USA’s close allies in West Asia.

Current Scenario

Significance of the Accord

• The agreement shows how the Arab countries are gradually decoupling themselves from the Palestine question.
• Palestine was among former Ottoman territories placed under UK administration by the League of Nations in 1922. All of these territories eventually became fully independent States, except Palestine.
• Full diplomatic ties will be established between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain which will have a positive impact on the entire region.
• The deal buys UAE a lot of goodwill in the US, where its image has been tarnished by its involvement in the Yemen war.
• In South Asia, it will put Pakistan in a bind, whether to follow UAE’s steps (will be seen as giving up Islamic cause of Palestine) or not to follow the UAE (since it is already in feud with the Saudis over not taking up the Kashmir case, Pakistan cannot afford another hostile Islamic Country).
• In the upcoming presidential election in the USA, the accord could help shore up support among pro-Israel Christian evangelical voters, an important part of current President’s political base.

More Deals

• Other gulf states in the region like Oman could follow suit and sign similar agreements with Israel
• One of the biggest Gulf Arab powers, Saudi Arabia could follow the suit as well.

Impact on the UAE

• The deal smoothens the UAE’s international campaign to be seen as a beacon of tolerance in the Middle East despite being governed by autocratic rulers.
• It puts the UAE out first in a regional recognition race among neighbouring Gulf Arab states.

Impact on Israel

• The announcement justifies the year-long claims of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that his government enjoys closer ties to Arab nations than publicly acknowledged.
• The deal gives Netanyahu a domestic boost at a time when Israel’s coalition government is facing infighting and the possibility of early elections.

Impact on the USA

• The recognition grants a diplomatic win to the USA President Donald Trump ahead of the November election.
• Neither his efforts to bring the war in Afghanistan to an end nor efforts to bring peace between Israel and the Palestinians have been successful yet.

For Palestine

• For Palestinians, who long have relied on Arab backing in their struggle for independence, the announcement marked both a win and setback for the Israel-Palestine relations.
• While the deal halts Israeli annexation plans, the Palestinians have repeatedly urged Arab governments not to normalize relations with Israel until a peace agreement establishing an independent Palestinian state is reached.

Concern

• The Palestinians have not embraced the USA’s vision. 86% of Palestinians believe the normalization agreement with the UAE serves only Israel’s interests and not their own.
• There is a possibility that the Palestine quest is further ignored.
• Shia-Sunni rifts in the region may get wide and violent.
• Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (representing Shia) have a long history of enmity. For decades, one of the main sources of instability in West Asia has been the cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
• The Sunni-Shiite schism may also provoke violence between Muslims in such places as Pakistan, Nigeria and Indonesia.

Indian Interest in West Asia

• Geopolitical: West Asia occupies an important position in international relations due to its geographical location and proximity to continents and countries South Asia, China, Central Asia, Europe, and Africa.
• Energy: The region is strategically significant due to its enormous energy resources, trade route links to different parts of the world.
• It is the world's largest oil-producing region accounting for 34% of world production, 45% of crude oil exports and 48% of oil proven reserves.
• Diaspora: Indian expatriates have constituted a substantial share of the regional labour market.
• Remittances from the region constitute a major chunk of total remittances to India.

Opportunity for India

• Defence and Security: India should use this unexpected opportunity to give itself a bigger role in a region which is its strategic backyard. The first step should be to ramp up defence and security relations with UAE.
• Israel is already a very close defence partner.
• While some work has already happened, India should leverage its economy for a bigger opening in this region. Importantly, India can use its good offices to ensure that any future deal on a regional security framework gives adequate space to Iran, which may be weak but not so weak that it cannot be a hugely disruptive power if it so chooses.

Road Ahead

• A balance between Shia and Sunni, between Persian and Arab, is key to any sustainable peace.
• The US may be a pre-eminent power in the Middle East, but Russia has made a space for itself, spending a lot less money. In recent years, China has indicated its willingness to play a larger role in this region, and is close to both UAE and Israel and, increasingly, Saudi Arabia.
• India should make its moves before this market and this extended neighbourhood come under the Chinese sphere of influence.
• A deal that could, if played right, open the doors for a changed geopolitical arrangement in the Middle East should have a stronger Indian footprint.

AlsoRead:https://abhipedia.abhimanu.com/Article/IAS/MjA0MzM5/UAE-Israel-peace-agreement-and-establishment-of-diplomatic-ties-International-Affairs-IAS