• India will host the next steering committee meeting of the proposed 1,814 kilometre-long Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline.

About TAPI:

• TAPI will run 1,800 km, 200 km through Turkmenistan (starting from Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan's eastern Mary province), 773 km through Herat and Kandahar provinces, Afghanistan, and 827 km through Multan and Quetta, Pakistan, to end at Fazilka in northern Punjab province, India .
• TAPI will carry 90 million standard cu m/day (MMscmd) of natural gas from the 16-tcf Galkynysh field (formerly South Yolotan-Osman) for 30 years, with India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan originally set to have received 38, 38, and 14 MMscmd, respectively.
• Afghanistan, however, has reduced its requirement to just 1.5-4 MMscmd, opening the possibility of India and Pakistan's share growing to as much as 44.25 MMscmd each.

Analysis:

• Turkmenistan would benefit the most from TAPI through diversification of its export base. TAPI would ensure not only pipeline connectivity but also diplomatic connectivity between Turkmenistan and South Asia, most importantly India.
• Turkmenistan has the world's fourth largest gas reserves behind only Iran, Russia, and Qatar .Despite such huge gas potential, Turkmenistan has so far failed to reap the benefits of exports, primarily due to a lack of developed infrastructure and being surrounded by other oil and gas producing nations such as Iran, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.
• In Afghanistan, where only 43% of the population has access to electricity,12 the TAPI pipeline could be an economic boon. Aside from the $400 million/year of transit fees, equal to about 1.965% of Afghanistan's 2014 GDP, the project would provide jobs to 25,000 Afghans. Natural gas will offer Afghanistan a cheaper power-generation alternative to the diesel-based generation supported by the US government 2008-15
• Pakistan, in an effort to address chronic energy shortages, has recently agreed to buy LNG from Qatar for 15 years, from 2016-2030.
• It will bring India much needed energy at competitive pricing, and could easily supply about 15% of India’s projected needs by the time it is completed in the 2020s.
• This project also gives India an opportunity to secure its interest in Central Asia. TAPI’s success will also ensure that India, Pakistan and Afghanistan find ways of cooperating on other issues as well.
• Security remains TAPI's foremost concern, particularly in the wake of the drawdown of US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces. Some regions of the pipeline route are under Taliban control, particularly the Greshk district of southern Helmand province. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has pledged a 7,000-strong force to guard the pipeline and its construction but it is unclear if he has had contact with the Taliban regarding TAPI's security.
• Similar concerns remain regarding Pakistan's Balochistan province, through which the pipeline will pass. Ongoing separatist movements in the province already attack gas pipelines passing through it.