Context: Recently, Asia Power Index was released by the Lowy Institute. India has secured the position as the third most powerful nation in Asia, overtaking Japan in the 2024 Asia Power Index.

• This reflects India’s growing geopolitical influence, driven by its expanding economy, youthful population, and increasing diplomatic engagement.

About the Asia Power Index (API)

• The Lowy Institute released the first annual Asia Power Index in 2018 to rank the countries in Asia based on their resources and influences.

• The 2024 Asia Power Index Report ranks 27 countries and territories. For the first time, the Southeast Asian country of Timor Lester has been included in the Report.

• The report evaluates the power of the countries on 131 indicators across eight thematic measures: Military Capability and Defence Networks, Economic Capability and Relationships, Diplomatic and Cultural Influence, as well as Resilience and Future Resources.

• The index is divided into resource-based and influence-based determinants

• Resource-Based Determinants:

• Economic Capability: The core economic strength of a country, measured through indicators like GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), technological sophistication, and global economic connectivity.

• Military Capability: Evaluates conventional military strength based on defense spending, armed forces, weapon systems, and signature capabilities like long-range power projection.

• Resilience: The internal capacity to deter threats to state stability, including institutional robustness, geopolitical security and resource security.

• Future Resources: Forecasts the future distribution of resources, including economic, military, and demographic factors projected for 2035.

• Influence-Based Determinants:

• Economic Relationships: The capacity to exercise leverage through trade, investment, and economic diplomacy.

• Defense Networks: The strength of alliances and partnerships, measured through military cooperation and arms transfers.

• Diplomatic Influence: The extent of a country's diplomatic reach, participation in multilateral forums, and foreign policy ambition.

• Cultural Influence: The ability to shape international public opinion through cultural exports, media, and people-to-people ties.

• A country's overall power score is derived from a weighted average of these eight measures, encompassing 131 individual indicators.

Key Highlights of the Asia Power Index 2024

• The report highlights the changing dynamics of power in the Asian region. The United States of America and China were the only two countries deemed superpowers in Asia, while India was ranked as a middle power.

• Resilient USA: According to the report, the United States has consolidated its position as the most dominant power in the region. However, China is fast catching up with the US in terms of military capability, though the US is still militarily more powerful than China.

• China’s plateauing power: China’s power is plateauing. It is neither increasing nor declining. It is second behind the US in Asia but is far ahead of other countries in the region.

• Slow Rise of India: The report mentions that India’s power is rising but slowly. Its actual influence in the region is well below its potential. The report finds that India’s ability to project power east of the Malacca Strait is limited. However, the report also says that India has the potential to become a major power as it is blessed with a huge young population, landmass and economy. India is the largest economy in the world on the basis of Purchasing Power Parity.

• Decline of Russia: Russian power and influence in the Asian region have declined due to its resources and focus being diverted to its war in Ukraine.

• Emergence of Japan as a Military Power: Japan, facing an aggressive China in its backyard, has stepped up its defence spending to counter China. It is changing from an economic and cultural powerhouse to much more active in defence and security.

Challenges on India’s road to superpower status:

1. Income disparities

2. Infrastructure needs

3. Geopolitical tensions

Significance and future

• India’s rise to third place in the Asia Power Index reflects its growing influence and capabilities in the region.

• With rapid economic growth, an expanding military presence, and a more assertive diplomatic approach, India is well on its way to becoming a major global power.

• While challenges remain, the country’s potential to shape the future of Asia and beyond is stronger than ever. 

• The world will be closely watching as India continues to assert itself both regionally and globally.

Reason behind Japan decline

• Slow Population Growth: Japan’s slow population growth, limited military expansion, and relatively stagnant economic performance have caused it to lose ground to rising giants like China and India.

• Lack of Influence:  Japan’s reserved political stance, particularly in military matters, has further contributed to its slipping influence compared to India’s assertive foreign policy and defense strategies.

• Japan continues to be a formidable economic and technological force, its decline in the Asia Power Index reflects broader challenges.