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Sanjay writes a letter to his friend, Kesari. It is known that one out of 10 letters that are posted does not reach its destination. If Sanjay does not receive a reply to his letter, then what is the probability that Kesari did not receive Sanjay’s letter ? It is certain that Kesari will definitely reply to Sanjay’s letter if he receives it
10/19
9/10
1/10
9/100
Let’s analyze the problem step-by-step using given probabilities:
- Probability Kesari receives the letter: 9/10.
- Probability Kesari does not receive the letter: 1/10.
- Kesari will reply if he receives the letter.
Given Sanjay does not receive a reply, Kesari did not get the letter.
Using Bayes' theorem, calculate:
- Probability of not receiving a reply: \( P(\text{No Reply}) = P(\text{Kesari receives}) \times P(\text{No Reply}|\text{Receives}) + P(\text{Kesari does not receive}) \)
- \( P(\text{No Reply}) = (9/10) \times 0 + (1/10) = 1/10 \)
- Probability did not receive given no reply: \( \frac{1/10}{1/10} = 1 \)
Therefore, none of the options match. But to find the probability of not receiving the letter (if proposed options): It should be \( \frac{1/10}{(1 \times 9/10) + (1/10)} = \frac{1}{1.9} = \frac{10}{19} \).
Thus, Option 1 (10/19) is indeed the correct answer.
By: Parvesh Mehta ProfileResourcesReport error
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