Sri Lanka is currently undergoing deep constitutional and political turmoil- President Maithripala Sirisena appointed former president and member of parliament Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister on 26 October 2018 before formally dismissing the incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe. As a maritime neighbor, it is a matter of great concern for India.

ONGOING POLITICAL CRISIS IN SRI LANKA:

• Uneasy Coalition: The Sirisena-Wickremesinghe led National Unity government had been struggling to repay the debts and recorded lowest growth rate in past 16 years. President Sirisena blamed Wikrimesinghe for a huge economic loss and an assassination plot on him. This soured the ties between the coalition parties.
• UPFA’s withdrawal of support: On October 26, the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), the party to which Sirisena belong, announced it was withdrawing from Sri Lanka’s National Unity government.
• Constitutional Crisis: President Maithripala Sirisena appointed former president and member of parliament Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister on 26 October 2018 before formally dismissing the incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, resulting in two concurrent prime ministers. Wickremesinghe and the United National Party (UNP) viewed the appointment as illegal, and he refused to resign.
• Sirisena Prorogues the Parliament: Sirisena, ignoring all criticisms and calls of the opposition to reconvene parliament and on 27 October prorogued parliament, delaying its meeting till 16 November.
• Failed attempt of dissolving the Parliament: After an attempt to form a new cabinet of ministers with Rajapaksa as prime minister failed, Sirisena attempted to dissolve parliament on 9 November. The UNP declared the move unconstitutional and subsequently the Supreme Court has stayed Sirisena's dissolution until December 2018.
• Election to solve the Crisis: Both the Sirisena-Rajapaksa camps have, expectedly, welcomed fresh elections, claiming it would reflect the true will of the people. Free and fair elections are, no doubt, central to a democracy; but when conducted in the wake of the questionable sacking of Parliament, they may be anything.

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS AGGRAVATED THE CRISIS

• Second Amendment to 1972 Constitution in 1978: This introduced Executive Presidency to Sri Lanka, it has given immunity and much power to the president, including powers to prorogue and dissolve parliament. It has often created political instabilities as the president has sufficient powers to intervene with the work of the government — including ending its term.
• 19th Amendment of 2015: Reducing the Powers of the President: It stipulates that the president cannot dissolve parliament until the last six months of the parliamentary term, without the support of a two-third majority of parliament. Thus, the dissolution attempt of current parliament by president is unconstitutional, as it has neither completed 4.5 years term nor have two third majority has supported it.
• Vested Interpretation of the constitution:
• • Rajapaksa camp argues that: Article 33(2) (c) of the Sri Lankan Constitution, which says the President has the power to summon, prorogue and dissolve Parliament. Arguing that as the UPFA withdrew from the cabinet, the cabinet ceased to exist, and therefore the prime minister also ceased to exist according to Article 46(2). Again section 14(f) of the Interpretation Ordinance to argue that as a rule whoever has the authority to make an appointment similarly has the power to remove an individual from office.
• • Wikrimesinghe camp counter argues that: Article 46(2) provides that the prime minister can only cease to hold office where he resigns or ceases to be a member of parliament. Article 48(1) provides that the cabinet can be dissolved in the following circumstances: where the prime minister dies, resigns or otherwise ceases to hold office. Additionally, the Supreme Court in a number of decisions has ruled that the Interpretation Ordinance does not apply to the constitution.
  Sri Lanka is at a crossroads where it has to make a crucial choice between democratic consolidation or a retreat to authoritarianism. The judiciary has a crucial task at hand.

IMPLICATION ON INDIA - SRI LANKA TIES:

• An assault on Democracy: India, a mature democratic nation, want to preserve the democratic values in other countries especially its neighbors. India has asked that democratic values and constitutional process be respected. A peaceful neighbor is always beneficial for India.
• Tamil Factor: The Tamil leaders of our country accuse Rajapaksa as killer of Tamil’s in the island nation. Tamil Nadu leaders have reacted strongly to the current crisis and sought immediate intervention of the centre.
• Rajapaksa- an older ally of China: Sri Lanka had grown closer to China under Rajapaksa's rule. The current political establishment looked towards India as Chinese debt pinched the country's economy. Although it is believed that Rajapaksa has made conciliatory noises towards India, there is nothing to suggest that he will not revert to his old ways again.
• Aggravating rivalry between India-China: The developments in Sri Lanka also play into broader rivalry between India and China across the Indian Ocean. Both the countries trying hard to influence the regime to serve their own interests.
  Thus the current crisis can be seen as a bad sign for India Sri Lanka relationship.

WAY AHEAD FOR INDIA

• Adopted a “wait and watch” attitude towards the crisis in Sri Lanka, closely monitoring the developments.
• The lessons learnt from handling the earlier political crisis in the Maldives will be of help to resolve the crisis in a democratic way.
• India’s top leadership should work the phones with all channels in an attempt to resolve the crisis and uncertainty as developments in Sri Lanka will have an impact on Tamil Nadu.