Explanation:

India’s agricultural exports had jumped from a mere $7.53 billion in 2003-04 to $43.25 billion in 2013-14.

• It happened majorly due to a bull run in global commodity prices, which ended in 2014-15.
• Exports declined to $32.81 billion by 2015-16, before steadily recovering to $41.82 billion in 2020-21.
• The agricultural trade surplus, which had narrowed down to $8.05 billion in 2016-17 due to rising imports, has also since rebounded to $20.19 billion in 2020-21.

Factors behind increased exports in 2020-21

The farm sector’s standout export performance, the best since the $43.25 billion of 2013-14, was due to following factors:

• Good monsoon season
• Agriculture production being relatively unaffected by the Covid-19 induced lockdown
• A steep surge in global commodity prices

Factors in favour of a good season

• The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a normal southwest monsoon season.
• The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization’s world food price index hit an 83-month-high in April, 2021.
• The Agriculture Export Policy (AEP), 2018, aims at achieving export target of $60 billion by 2022 and $100 billion within a few years, thereafter.

Hence option 3rd is correct.