The National Statistical Office recently released the first revised GDP estimates for the fiscal year 2021. According to the estimates, the GDP contracted by 6.6%. Earlier, the GDP had contracted by 7.3%. The contraction is mainly due to COVID pandemic and the lockdown imposed.

What do the estimates say?

• The real GDP for 2020-21 is 135.58 lakh crores of rupees. The real GDP for 2019-20 is 145.16 crores. The values were calculated based on 2011-12 prices.
• Nominal GDP for the 2020-21 is 198.01 lakh crores of rupees. In 2019-20, the nominal GDP was 200.75 lakh crores. This shows the nominal GDP has contracted by 1.4%.
• The Nominal GVA at basic prices reduced by 4.8%. It had grown by 6.9% in 2019-20.
• The real GVA at basic prices contracted to 4.8% in 2020-21 and had grown by 3.8% in 2019-20.

Inference

The contraction of GDP in 2021 creates a less approving base for the fiscal year 2022. This is to further contract the growth to 8.8% in 2022. The NSO expects this might change in 2023 and the GDP might jump ahead.

Growth rates of different sectors

The growth rates for 2020-21 are as follows:

• Primary sector: Quarrying, Mining, Fishing, agriculture and forestry: (-2.8%). Previous year, this was 1.6%.
• Secondary sector: Water Supply, electricity, manufacturing, gas: -7.8%. Previous year the growth was 1.9%.
• Tertiary sector: Services: -6.8%. Previous year it was -8.4%.

 Income

• The National Net Income for 2020-21 was 171.94 lakh crores. It was 177.94 crores in 2019-20. This says that the NNI has contracted by 2.9% in 2020-21. But in the previous year it had grown by 6%.
• The per capital income at current prices for 2020-21 was Rs 1,26,855. The previous year it was Rs 1,32,115.

Real Price: It is the recent price of goods and service in the country. It is the market price. It is an adjusted price.

Nominal Price: It is an unadjusted price. It does not include inflation.

By: Brijesh Kumar