Introduction

• India is set to witness a sharp slowdown in population growth in the next two decades. Although the country as a whole will enjoy the “demographic dividend” phase, some states will start transitioning to an ageing society by the 2030s.
• It will surprise many readers to learn that population in the 0-19 age bracket has already peaked due to sharp declines in total fertility rates (TFR) across the country. The southern states, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal and Maharashtra now have fertility rates well below the replacement rate.  TFR in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are above the replacement rate but are also experiencing significant declines.
• As a result, the national TFR is expected to be below replacement level by 2021 (adjusted for the skewed gender ratio, it may already be there). The age distribution, however, implies that India's working-age population will grow by roughly 9.7mn per year during 2021-31 and 4.2mn per year in 2031-41. Meanwhile, the proportion of elementary school-going children, i.e. 5-14 age group, will witness significant declines.
• Contrary to popular perception, many states need to pay greater attention to consolidating/merging schools to make them viable rather than building new ones. At the other end of the age scale, policy makers need to prepare for ageing. This will need investments in health care as well as a plan for increasing the retirement age in a phased manner.

Recent trends       

• Population growth in India has been slowing in recent decades from an annual growth rate of 2.5% (1971-81) to 1.3% (2011-16).
• It is below 1 per cent in the southern states as well as West Bengal, Punjab, Maharashtra, Odisha, Assam and Himachal Pradesh.
• This is mainly due to the steady decline in India’s total fertility rate (TFR) from 4.5 in 1984 to 2.3 as of 2016.
• India’s TFR may already be close to the effective replacement level fertility of 2.1 after accounting for its skewed sex ratio.
• However, there is a wide variation among states, with 13 states already below the replacement rate of 2.1
• India has reached the current TFR at a relatively low per capita income when compared to the experience of major developed economies but similar to that of other Asian countries
• India has entered the next stage of demographic transition, the so-called “demographic dividend” phase, with slow population growth along with high working-age population.
• However, there are significant heterogeneity across states in terms of fertility, mortality, age- structure.
• The southern states and few other are already quite advanced while states like Bihar, U.P are still in the early stages of demographic transition.

Population and its age structure are projected up to 2041, for 22 major states, which account for 98.4 per cent of India’s population as per Census 2011.

• National level: TFR will decline rapidly below replacement level to 1.8 by 2021 and stabilize around 1.7. in line with the fertility patterns of other countries such as China and Brazil.
• States below replacement level fertility are expected to see TFR decline as low as 1.5-1.6 by 2021 and stabilizing thereafter.
• States lagging in the fertility transition will see TFR fall below replacement level to 1.8 at different years.
• The decline in fertility is due to rising female education, postponement of marriage, access to family planning methods and decline in infant mortality, especially in the last decade.
• Sex ratio at birth remains higher than the normal range of 1.02-1.076 at the national level and in 17 out of 22 major states.

Because of the skewed sex ratio, the effective replacement level fertility after considering the skewed sex ratio could be around 2.15-2.2, with a sex ratio of 1.11 for India.

• National level: Population growth will slow rapidly, growing less than 1 percent over the next two decades, as seen in Germany and France.
• Positive population growth will be due to population momentum and the continued rise in life expectancy.
• State level: Population and growth rate will continue to vary across states due to different levels of fertility, mortality and age composition.
• Tamil Nadu’s population growth will start declining during 2031-41 unless offset by inward migration.
• Population growth will halve over the next two decades in Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Bihar alone will have a population growth rate of 1 per cent.
• Along with Jharkhand, these states will account for nearly two-thirds of the increase in India’s population during 2021-41.

• With low TFR and increasing life expectancy, Population at the national level and in several states will begin ageing significantly in a decade.
• Young population (0-19) has already started to decline drop from 41% in 2011 to 25%. With all states projected to witness a decline.
• Elderly population (60 & above), will double from 8.6% in 2011 to 16%.
• Demographic dividend will peak around 2041, with the share of working-age population (20-59) at 59%
• By 20141, India’s age-structure will resemble that of China and Thailand as seen during the current decade.

• Changes in the size of working-age population plays a key role in determining the size of labour force and direction of inter-state labour migration.
• As per the NSSO Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18, India’s labour force participation rate for the age-group 15-59 years is around 53 per cent (80 per cent for males, 25 per cent for females)
• Additional jobs of 9.7 million in 2021-31 and 4.2 million in 2031-41 will need to be created for the working age population depending on the changes in schooling years, age distribution and female labour force participation.
• The younger states with rising working-age population will meet the labour deficit in many of the ageing states due to varying rate of working group population. following the current migration pattern.

• Population in the 5-14 age-group corresponding to the number of elementary school-going children will decline by 18% in 2041 and this will have very important social and economic consequences like the increase in number of schools per capita which may need to be merged in order to keep them viable, as in countries like china, Japan etc.
• The focus from quantity towards quality and efficiency of education is also needed.

• If India’s hospital facilities remain at current levels, rising population over the next two decades will sharply reduce the per capita availability of hospital beds across all major states.
• India already fares poorly relative to other emerging and developed economies in terms of per capita availability of hospital beds.
• States with high population growth with low hospital facilities need to expand them rapidly. While states with changing age structure will need to adopt more geriatric care facilities

• India’s healthy life expectancy at the age of 60, which is the average number of years a 60-year old person is expected to live in full health taking into account the impact of diseases and injuries, has continually increased over the years for both men and women.
• Healthy life expectancy at the age of 60 now stands at 12.9 years (12.5 years for males; 13.3 years for females). It is still much lower than developed and emerging economies.
• In future, increasing the retirement age for both men and women is needed due to aging population and pressure on pension funding.