• Varied but simultaneous developments took place in the recent period in different corners of the Indo-Pacific.
• They are indicative of the renewed geopolitical importance of the island states.

Why are island states significant?

• At the dawn of the modern maritime age four centuries ago, control of critically-located islands became important.
• It was part of the rivalry between European powers in the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.
• Islands helped the replenishment of supplies, positioning of troops and ammunition, and the host ship to do repair and maintenance.
• Island dominance became the key to securing the sea lines of communication.
• The Anglo-American maritime dominance over the last two centuries helped limit the contestation for the islands.
• An exception was imperial Japan’s challenge in the decades before the Second World War.
• Today, the rise of China has brought the island states back to the centre stage of major power politics.

What are the recent developments?

• Maldives - The Indian PM visited Maldives recently for the swearing-in of its new president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.
• The visit underlined the renewed warmth in the relations between the two countries.
• Under Solih’s predecessor, Abdulla Yameen, India’s relations with the Maldives rapidly deteriorated.
• The contestation between India and China in the Maldives got intertwined with the democratic struggle of the opposition parties to end Yameen’s autocracy.
• They kept demanding an Indian intervention as Yameen trampled over the parliament and judiciary, but Delhi held back.
• Sri Lanka - The intersection of Sino-Indian rivalry with domestic politics is also witnessed in the neighbouring Sri Lanka.
• The international community and India too was surprised at the recent decision of the Sri Lankan President to dismiss Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.
• India, the US and EU, emphasised the importance of due constitutional process and supported parliament test.
• But the Chinese ambassador in Colombo was quick to show up at the newly-installed PM Rajapaksa's office to congratulate him.

• Notably, during the decade-long rule (2004-15) by Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka seemed to steadily move closer to China’s orbit.
• Symbolising its influence, China won the strategic contracts to build the Colombo port city.
• It also got the contract for the construction of a new port at Hambantota in the southern part of the island.
• India, in turn, appeared to lose its historic primacy in the island state.
• Papua New Guinea - Further east, Papua New Guinea very recently hosted the forum for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's annual summit.
• It brought leaders from 20-odd countries from America to China, Malaysia to Japan and Canada to Chile to this island state.
• Here too, there is rise in Chinese commercial and political presence in the last few years.
• There was also a speculation that China might be in quest of a military base in Papua New Guinea.
• So Australia and the US moved in to announce that they will fund the development of the port facilities.
• This would be developed in the Manus Island to the north-east of the main island.
• Notably, Imperial Japan had occupied Manus and built a military base there in 1942.
• Australia also joined the US, Japan and New Zealand in unveiling a project to provide electricity to 70% of the island population by 2030.
• But countries have largely failed to anticipate the intensity of China’s power projection.

How does the future look for the Indo-Pacific?

• Contestation for influence in the island states of the Indo-Pacific has just begun.
• The European colonial powers could easily prevail over natives of the strategic island territories.
• But unlike then, in Indo-Pacific, today’s major powers have to deal with the more complex domestic politics of the island nations.
• The ruling regimes in these islands have agency and the capacity to play one power against the other.