• According to IMD (India Meteorological Department), India could witness a near-normal monsoon this season.
• The rainfall in the four-month season from June to September is likely to be 96% of the 50-year average of 89 cm with a model error of +/-5%.
• The south-west monsoon, which makes its onset over the country in June, irrigates over half of India’s cropland and sustains the livelihood of over 58% of its population that is dependent on agriculture.
•  The monsoon forecast is crucial, as it directly influences agricultural production and has a spiralling impact on inflation and growth.
• According to the weather department, there is 39% probability of normal rainfall, 32% probability of below normal and 17% probability of deficient rains. There are low chances of the monsoon rainfall being above normal (10%) or in excess (2%).
• The monsoon was dismal in 2018 ending with an overall deficit of 9.4%, pushing several states—including Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Gujarat, Telangana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh—into dought.

How does IMD calculate monsoon level?

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expresses the projected rainfall in terms of Long Period Average (LPA).
• The LPA is the average rainfall recorded during the months from June to September, calculated during the 50-year period from 1951 to 2000.
• LPA is kept as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for the monsoon season every year.
• The LPA of the monsoon season over the entire country is 89 cm.
• Like the countrywide figure, IMD maintains an independent LPA for every homogeneous region of the country.
• E.g. 143.83 cm, 97.55 cm, 71.61 cm, and 61.5 cm for East and Northeast India, Central India, South Peninsular India, and Northwest India respectively.
• Going by this, IMD maintains five rainfall distribution categories on an all-India scale. These are:
• Normal or Near Normal - when there is +/-10% departure of actual rainfall i.e. between 96-104% of LPA
• Below normal - when departure of actual rainfall is less than 10% of LPA i.e. 90-96% of LPA
• Above normal - when actual rainfall is 104-110% of LPA
• Deficient - when departure of actual rainfall is less than 90% of LPA
• Excess - when departure of actual rainfall is more than 110% of LPA