Context

A forecast of a below average monsoon in 2019, after last year’s erratic rainfall that flooded Kerala and crippled agriculture in eastern and western States, is a cause for worry.

Forecast and predictions regarding Monsoon

• If the assessment from one agency, Skymet, is any indication, there is a prospect of an El Niño, often associated with drought conditions, taking hold.

• If the assessment from one agency, Skymet, is any indication, there is a prospect of an El Niño, often associated with drought conditions, taking hold.

• Should the monsoon, which normally sets in between June 1 and July 15 across the country, turn out to be deficient, it will add to the pressures on rural employment and the economy as a whole.

• Things may become clearer when the India Meteorological Department also issues its forecast, although error margins and the erratic nature of rainfall in different regions render the exercise fraught with uncertainty.

• Last year, for instance, the realisation of rainfall was 91% of the long-term average, while the prediction was for 97%.

Preparations to handle an extreme situation

• It is the responsibility of State administrations to prepare for the likelihood of a heat spike, particularly during April and May, to prevent loss of life and extreme distress to communities.

• Official agencies and NGOs should start adopting the drill on this, using the template drawn up by the National Disaster Management Authority.

Steps to be taken

• Small Precautions-The key elements of protection in a heat wave are avoiding exposure during the hottest part of the day around noon, especially in the case of senior citizens, staying adequately hydrated, wearing suitable clothing including headgear, and creating shade in public places.

• Information technology-These messages and weather alerts can be disseminated through television, mobile phone messaging and social media platforms.

• Local Bodies-Urban local bodies in particular have a responsibility to care for the large number of vulnerable city dwellers.

Challenges

• During the current year, there is apprehension that the focus of administrators will mainly be on the conduct of the elections, relegating the public health risk of heat waves to the backburner.

• With the availability of advance weather alerts, there is no reason why local bodies cannot institute remedial measures.

• Mitigating the effect of heat waves is vital to ensuring a high turnout in the elections by making it safe for voters.

Conclusion

• India is looking at another uncertain monsoon, bringing into sharp relief the neglected potential of decentralised water-harvesting.

• It is more than a decade since the National Commission on Farmers suggested the wider adoption of both rainwater harvesting and aquifer recharge, in order to provide irrigation for small farmers.

• It is time to take measures that will help communities achieve resilience.