Cyclone Idai is the seventh major storm of the Indian Ocean season – more than double the average for this time of year – the long-term trend does not support the idea that these type of events are now more frequent.

Body:

Cyclone is any large system of winds that circulates about a centre of low atmospheric pressure in a counter-clockwise direction north of the Equator and in a clockwise direction to the south.

Conditions Favourable for Cyclone Formation:

• Large sea surface with temperature higher than 27° C
• Presence of the Coriolis force enough to create a cyclonic vortex
• About 65 per cent of cyclonic activity occurs between 10° and 20° latitude.
• Small variations in the vertical wind speed
• A pre-existing weak low-pressure area or low-level-cyclonic circulation
• High humidity (around 50 to 60 per cent) is required in the mid-troposphere, since the presence of moist air leads to the formation of cumulonimbus cloud.

The interesting thing is that the frequency of tropical cyclones has decreased ever so slightly over the last 70 years. Instead, we are getting a much higher frequency of high-intensity storms. The reasons for the same are:

• Climate change is affecting a number of factors in the background that are contributing to making the impact of these storms worse.
• Climate change makes the rainfall intensities higher, increased influences of warming on specific events.
• Warmer seas mean there is more energy available for cyclones, which only form when the water reaches 26 degrees Centigrade.
• Global warming causes a sea-level rise, the resulting flooding is more intense than it would be without human-induced climate change.
• In previous decades, the further away you were from the Equator meant the cooler the seas became and so any tropical cyclones that formed didn’t have the energy to keep going. Now climate change is impacting that relationship.
• Under increasing sea-surface temperatures, we are seeing the line of constant temperature required for these storms to form moving further and further towards the South Pole

Cyclone Management in India:

• India is highly vulnerable to natural disasters especially cyclones, earthquakes, floods, landslides, and drought. Natural disasters cause a loss of 2% of GDP every year in India. According to the Home ministry, 8% of total area in India is prone to cyclones.
• In 2016, National Disaster Management Plan was unveiled to tackle disaster. It provides a framework to deal with prevention, mitigation, response and recovery during a disaster.
• Due to increased awareness and tracking of Cyclone, the death toll has been reduced substantially. For example, Very severe cyclone Hudhud and Phailin claimed lives of around 138 and 45 people respectively, which might have been more. It was reduced due to the early warning and relocation of the population from the cyclone-hit areas.
• But the destruction of infrastructure due to cyclonic hit is not been reduced which leads to increase in poverty due to the economic weakening of the affected population.

Measures to tackle such incidences:

• The National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP), to be implemented with financial assistance from the World Bank, is envisaged to have four major components:
  • Component A: Improvement of early warning dissemination system by strengthening the Last Mile Connectivity (LMC) of cyclone warnings and advisories.
  • Component B: Cyclone risk mitigation investments.
  • Component C: Technical assistance for hazard risk management and capacity-building.
  • Component D: Project management and institutional support.
• These components are highly interdependent and have to be implemented in a coherent manner.
• The NDMA had come up with its National Guidelines of Management of Cyclones in 2008. The basic premise of these guidelines is that the mitigation has to be multi-sectoral.
• Developing Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) frameworks for addressing the sustainability and optimal utilisation of coastal resources as also cyclone impact minimisation plans.
• Ensuring cyclone resistant design standards are incorporated in the rural/ urban housing schemes in coastal areas
• Implementing coastal flood zoning, flood plain development and flood inundation management and regulatory plans.
• Coastal bio-shields spread, preservation and restoration/ regeneration plans.
• There is a need for private sector participation in designing and implementing policies, plans, and standards.
• Need of Disaster Management program to be inclusive including women, civil society, and academia.

Conclusion:

India should prepare to mitigate and deflect the destruction caused by Cyclones. We need to employ technology, strict following of command structure and most importantly the participation and cooperation of local communities in the affected area.