What is the issue?

• US national security adviser John Bolton recently outlined conditions for a U.S. troop departure from Syria.
• This has given way to the recent tussle between US and Turkey.

What is the dispute?

• The US national security adviser said the troops would leave the war-torn country after the Islamic State is beaten.
• He also said Kurds, U.S. allies in the fight against the IS, should be protected.
• This contradicts with Trump’s insistence that the withdrawal would be immediate and without any pre-conditions.
• Turkish President Erdogan refused to John Bolton’s suggestions for an orderly exit and the plan to protect the Syrian Kurds.
• Turkey considers the Syrian Democratic Forces, the official military wing of Syrian Kurdistan, an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
• The Kurdistan Workers’ Party is, indeed, deemed a terrorist group by Turkey and the U.S.
• Turkey sees an autonomous, militarily powerful Kurdistan on the Syrian side of the border as a threat to its territorial integrity.
• But Turkey was limited by U.S. presence in the Kurdish-populated region in pursuing its own military options.
• It is highly likely that Turkey could attack the Kurds as soon as the U.S. troops leave.

What is the implication?

• Tensions were so high that Mr. Erdogan refused to meet Mr. Bolton, who was in Turkey.
• The U.S. is now in a dilemma.
• Its President has announced the withdrawal. But it cannot just exit Syria without considering the existing geopolitical equations in the region.
• Part of the problem is with the way Mr. Trump announced his decision to withdraw troops.
• He should have held talks with the stakeholders, including Turkey, Russia and Kurds, before taking a decision.

• He could have at least used his intent to pull out from Syria as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from other countries involved in the civil war.

What could be done now?

• The U.S. could go ahead with the unilateral pull-out irrespective of what Turkey does.
• This would leave the Kurds at the mercy of Mr. Erdogan and the Turkish troops.
• Otherwise, Trump can wait on his decision and continue to station troops in Syria.
• This can influence, at least partially, the outcome of the civil war.
• But this is unlikely, given his aversion to keeping troops indefinitely in Syria (and other West Asian conflict zones).
• In the third case, the U.S. can stagger the withdrawal and pursue talks with Turkey, Russia and the Syrian government.
• It can try reaching an agreement to guarantee the protection of the Kurds and the defeat of the IS in Syria.
• US should continue to keep diplomatic channels open to ensure that the pull-out is done in an orderly fashion.