• Islamic State’s growing presence in the country can undo Kabul’s peace moves with Taliban and other insurgents.

What is the context of the recent blast?

• ISIS - The IS set up its Afghan affiliate as a South Asian outpost when its so-called caliphate in Iraq and Syria came under strain in 2016.
• Afghanistan proved to be a relatively easier terrain for the IS to recruit fighters from and occupy turf due to its deserted and remote topography.
• When the government and the Taliban were fighting each other, the IS built a network in eastern Afghanistan and started targeting minorities.
• Most of its previous attacks were aimed at the Shia minority, the present one was targeted at Sikhs and Hindus. 
• Attack - Afghanistan has a small Sikh and Hindu population totalling to about 10,000, who live concentrated in cities like Kabul and Jalalabad.
• A bus ferrying a group of Sikhs and Hindus, who were heading to meet the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, was attacked in Jalalabad by the IS.
• The attack killed the only Sikh candidate running for upcoming elections, which speaks volumes on the current plight of minorities in Afghanistan.

How is the overall political situation in Afghanistan?

• Backdrop - The Afghani government has been trying to pilot a peace initiative with all the armed groups in the country in recent times.
• Taliban, which is the strongest armed group, has been responding positively although it has refused to drop arms for now.
• Significantly, in the run-up to Id last month, the government had announced a unilateral ceasefire, which drew a truce from the Taliban.
• Challenge - The government’s effort to reign in armed groups faces its most formidable challenge in the eastern provinces due to the rise of IS.   
• The IS, as per its worldwide stand of not engaging with any government has refused to respond to Afghan government’s outreach.
• Contrarily, it has been increasingly attacking schools and other targets, claiming it as a response to U.S. and Afghani military operations against it.

How does the future look?

• Afghanistan is struck up in an overstretched civil strife for about 4 decades now, right from the days of Soviet invasion in the 1980s.
• The war with Taliban, which controls almost of half of the country’s territory, has presently reached a stalemate and peace is being explored.
• In this context, the rise of IS might disturb the present fragile truce and force the country back to total chaos.
• While the U.S. and Afghani forces are stepping up the offensive in the eastern provinces, the lethal potency of IS only seems to be growing.