The Trump administration has decided to withdraw roughly 7,000 troops from Afghanistan after withdrawal from Syria. This decision will have major consequences for peace in Afghanistan and the neighbourhood.

 The US policy on Afghanistan in 2017 was considered a paradigm shift. Its core objectives were to help the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces stabilize the security situation, gain the momentum against the Taliban, and prevent the Islamic State from gaining a foothold in Afghanistan.

However, last year there was a decision to withdraw the troops. Such decisions have once again underscored Trump’s unmatched tendency to shock his own administration for pursuing an isolationist and anti-interventionist foreign policy to appease its core political base.

Impacts on India’s strategic interests due to America’s withdrawal:

• Rise of Taliban:
  • India has two main interests in Afghanistan, which are, preventing any extremist group from taking over Afghanistan, and maintaining economic cooperation with the Afghan government and civil society.
  • The Taliban has refused to negotiate with the current Afghan regime, deeming it to be illegitimate.
  • The fears of Afghanistan returning to its heroin-sustained war-lordism are high probability.
• Increased Pakistan leverage:
  • The reason for Taliban’s resilience is the support and succour it receives from Rawalpindi. Pakistan’s leverage in Afghanistan is set to grow.
  • India’s Afghanistan policy has a major objective to curtail Islamabad’s influence in Kabul and deny Pakistan’s state and non-state agents leverage to plot against Indian interests.
• Instable Kashmir:
  • The US withdrawing troops from Afghanistan could affect the Kashmir Valley as terrorist outfits may feel empowered.
• Geopolitics in Asian Heartland:
  • India’s problems are exacerbated because American withdrawal comes at a time when its views on Afghanistan are at significant variance with other traditional regional partners like Russia and Iran.
  • China is already making inroads into Afghanistan with her BRI project. The process will be further easier.
  • Turkey is also eying an opportunity to play its role to safeguard the interests of Afghanistan’s Turkmen-Turkic community
• Commercial Interests:
  • India’s Afghanistan policy’s another objective is to gain access to vast energy markets in Central Asia, is also at stake.
  • India has presence in Afghanistan after the construction of the Chahbahar Port in Iran and the highway that links it to Kabul.
  • Indian infrastructure projects of Salma dam, Parliament building, infrastructure projects will be at stake.
  • The recently started trade initiative between Afghanistan and India will be wiped out.

Way Forward:

• The U.S.’s eventual pullout as Afghanistan’s peacekeeper is inevitable, close bilateral consultations should be made to help Afghanistan according to its own needs.
• India has always supported for Afghanistan’s democracy. Use of her ‘soft power’ – ranging from telecommunications to education, community development programmes can be pushed forward.
• India’s best course with Afghanistan remains its own regional strategy, not becoming a part of any other country’s strategy.
• Playing a larger role in regional security would enhance the status of India as regional powers as well as the stability of South, Central, and West Asia.
• India must seek to build capacities and capabilities of Afghan nationals and its institutions for governance and delivery of public service, develop socio-economic infrastructure, secure lives and promote livelihood.
• Inactive SAARC must now be revived to strengthen the regional co-operation in South Asia.
• Tier-II diplomacy and involving other stakeholders: India, which has been against holding talks with the Taliban for a long time, finally sent two retired diplomats, at the ‘non-official level’, to join them at the Moscow peace talks.
• Continuing the efforts of implementing mega infrastructure projects, providing military equipments and training to Afghan personnel on the sidelines.
• Use of regional groupings like SCO to combat the terrorism emanating from Afghanistan.

Conclusion:

Echoing the Afghan stand, India has been asserting that the peace process must be “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled.”