Demographic dividend occurs when the proportion of working people in the total population is high because this indicates that more people have the potential to be productive and contribute to growth of the economy. In other words, the ratio of the working age population is high and the dependency ratio in terms of proportion of children and elderly people low. Reforms in the health and education sector, financial inclusion and adequate employment opportunities are essential pre-requisites to ensure that India’s young population is truly an asset.

The study on demographic dividend in India by United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) throws up two interesting facts.

1. The window of demographic dividend opportunity in India is available for five decades from 2005-06 to 2055-56, longer than any other country in the world.
2. This demographic dividend window is available at different times in different states because of differential behaviour of the population parameters.

It also reveals the following findings:

• At present, India, overall as a country, has a large proportion of population that is young. Close to 30% of India’s population is in the age group 0-14 years.
• The elderly in the 60-plus age group are still a small proportion (8%) of the country’s population.
• The working age group 15-59 years accounts for 62.5% of India’s population. The working-age population will reach the highest proportion of approximately 65% in 2036.

The reasons behind such an occurrence:

• Different states have behaved differently in the past and are projected to behave differently in terms of population parameters in future also.
• The fertility decline across states and regions has been different.
• Some states, especially in southern India, started seeing the fertility decline earlier than other states, especially the states in the hinterland. Example: Kerala:1.6 where as in Bihar:3.1
• This created regional variations in the degrees and timings of fertility decline.

Different sets of states have their windows of demographic dividend available at different time periods. As a result, there is need for a differential approach in forward-looking policymaking and programme planning to harness the demographic dividend opportunity.

• Where window is closing soon (example: Delhi, Gujarat, Punjab etc.)

Policy Priorities: ageing and migrant-friendly policies and programmes

• Where window is open and will close in the next 10-15 years (example: Karnataka, Odisha, HP etc.)

Policy Priorities: empowering girls and women, provisioning of health, education and skill development for young people, and employment generation

• Where window is yet to open (example: Bihar, UP, MP etc.)

Policy Priorities: three-fold – 1) addressing harmful practices such as child marriage. 2) Access to quality sexual and reproductive health services and family planning services to all. 3)provisioning of health, education, life and vocational skills to all the young people.

Conclusion:  Fine-tuning the planning and implementation of schemes and programmes by factoring in population dynamics is likely to yield greater socio-economic impact and larger benefits for people.