INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS:

EXPANDING VISTAS OF PARTNERSHIP

Relations between India and Central Asia are ancient and civilisational. India has been connected closely with Central Asia through the Silk Route from circa 3rd century BC till 15th century AD when the sea route from Europe to India was discovered.

 This made the land journey unviable because it was more risky, longer in duration, more expensive and volumes of cargo that could be carried by sea-faring vessels were much larger than by caravans over the land route.

• The Silk Route connected India with Central Asia not only for transportation of goods and wares like silk, textiles, spices etc but was an effective channel of exchange of thoughts, ideas, religion and philosophy.
• Budhism travelled over this route from India to Central Asia and from there to West China in contemporary Xinjiang region.
• During the Soviet period culture, music, dance, movies and literature bound the Soviet Republics closely with India.
• Political contacts grew and expanded with frequent exchange of visits.
•  Popularity of iconic Bollywood stars like Raj Kapoor, Nargis, Mithun Chakraborty and others brought India into the homes and hearts of common people of this region.

Bilateral relations however suffered considerable neglect in the 25 years after emergence of these countries as independent States in 1991 post the breakdown of the former Soviet Union.

 PROMINENT REAGIONAL FEATURES

• All these countries are landlocked . Some of them are doubly landlocked. These countries hence felt that it will be difficult for them to prosper as they do not have access to seas.
• Most Central Asian States particularly Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have converted the perceived disadvantage of being landlocked into an asset by constructing a web and network of roads, railways, highways, oil and gas pipelines  cris-crossing from East to West and North to South to connect industrial and production hubs with consumer markets.
• Last few years have seen highways and railroads traversing from the East in China through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Europe, Russia, Iran and the Middle East.
• Similarly oil from Caspian Sea offshore facilities in Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan is being shipped by pipelines to the western region of China.
• All Central Asian States are rich and well endowed potentially with mineral and hydroelectric resources.
• Kazakhstan has the world’s second largest reserves and is the world’s largest producer — 23,000 tons of uranium in 2014.
• Uzbekistan has large reserves of gas, uranium and gold.
•  Turkmenistan is endowed with world’s fourth largest reserves of natural gas.
• Tajikistan is blessed with huge hydroelectric potential.
• Kyrgyzstan is rich in gold and hydroelectric power.

Central Asian States have used the 25 years since independence in nation building and consolidation of their statehood.

• Track record of these countries on socio-economic development is mixed. Some of the nations showing a much better standard of human development than others.
• Uzbekistan is a potential leader in Central Asia.
• Religious extremism, fundamentalism and terrorism pose challenges to these societies and to regional stability.
• Issues like water security, borders, environmental degradation and migration have become acute.
• Central Asian republics face serious threat from illegal drug trade emanating from Afghanistan.

 Traditionally, Central Asia has been an arena of “great game’’. The modern version is being played out even today. Russia, China, US, Turkey, Iran, Europe, EU, Japan, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan have substantial security and economic stakes in the region.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE REGION

Significance of this region in foreign policy matrix of India cannot be overemphasised.

India’s foreign policy is conceptualised as comprising of sets of ever widening concentric circles around a central axis of historical and cultural commonalities.

• Security, stability and prosperity of Central Asia is imperative for peace and economic development of India.
• Modi governments  ''Neighbourhood First'' policy has given increased importance to India's proximate region.
• Since Central Asia comprises our  ''extended neighborhood'', it deserves much greater attention than it has received so far.
• Afghanistan poses a rising challenge for all these countries as well as for India. Beginning of  the Withdrawal of U.S and Nato forces as well as change in national leadership in Afghanistan in 2014 has increased violence and turbulence in the country. 
• Talks between Afghanistan, Pakistan, USA and China to persuade Taliban to enter into negotiations with Kabul are drifting aimlessly.It is necessary to evolve an inclusive regional solution for ensuring peace in Afghanistan.
• For this, India and Central Asia need to collaborate with other regional powers like Russia, Iran, China and Pakistan as also with USA and EU to promote security and stability in Afghanistan in order to prevent a spillover effect of the extremist forces rearing to go post the withdrawl of N.A.T.O forces.
• Central Asia finds itself exposed and vulnerable to influences like Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Taliban, IUM, Hizb-ut-Tahrir and others.
• India and Central Asia can collaborate to mutual benefit to strengthen the fabric of their social, inter-ethnic, inter-racial structures so that extremist and divisive pressures are contained and minimised.

RELATIONS WITH INDIA

India has not been able to take advantage of its civilisational and historical ties with the region as adequate attention was not accorded to the relations. Another significant reason for the listless state of bilateral ties is that India does not share physical borders with any of the Central Asian states. This is a huge bottleneck in promoting and expanding economic, commercial, energy, tourist links etc. with them. No direct  route from India to these countries is available as Pakistan does not permit goods, cargo or people to move through its territory to Afghanistan, let alone to Central Asia beyond it. Trade hence has been conducted with Central Asia through China. This is both time consuming and expensive. Alternatively cargo has to be sent to by sea to Northern Europe from where it is transported by rail and road through Russia and other adjacent countries.

India has registered significant progress in concluding agreements for

• development  of Chabahar port,
• development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and
• becoming a member of Ashgabat Agreement.

 India’s membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as also of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) should go a considerable way in bridging this gap.

India uses the instrumentality of soft power and its ready acceptability in Central Asia to strengthen bilateral ties.

 There is immense interest in Indian classical dance, music, Bollywood films, yoga, literature etc. in these countries.

 India regularly and frequently arranges cultural events in these countries and also provides scholarships for study in India of these disciplines by young men and women of these countries. Several of them on their return to their native countries after receiving high quality training in eminent institutions in India and  open their own institutions to teach and  promote Indian culture and further reinforce ties with India.

The Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme is an effective instrument under which young professionals of these countries undergo training and human capacity development in areas ranging from banking, remote sensing and English speaking to agriculture, rural development and information technology in the premier institutions in India. This initiative exposes the youth of these countries to India’s economic progress as well as its civilisation and heritage. ITEC has significantly contributed to economic and social growth and development of beneficiary countries.

More energy and vigour needs to be imparted to the area of commercial and economic ties. One important reason for the uninspiring level of bilateral commercial ties is lack of authentic and up-to-date information on potential and possibilities available in this area.

 Chambers of Commerce as well as official government agencies need to be more active to bridge the “information deficit’’ between India and the region.

The Indian Trade Promotion Organization (ITPO) needs to pay more attention to this region. There is a need to provide greater exposure for Indian companies and products amongst business and consumers of these countries.

Significant opportunities exist for Indian companies to undertake projects for building infrastructure related to rail network, roads, highways, power stations, transmission lines, renewable energy, nuclear power etc in these countries.

 Many projects are funded by international agencies and multilateral banks like ADB, EBRD, IBRD, IDB and others. It is expected that AIIB and NDB will also enter this market shortly. Indian companies with  wide experience can make a significant contribution to development of this region.

Several areas present excellent opportunities for enhancing bilateral trade and economic cooperation.

In addition to oil and gas, information technology, pharmaceuticals and textiles, areas like higher education, space, civil nuclear energy, small and medium business, power generation, food processing and agriculture  present rich potential for deeper engagement.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS   

India became full time member of S.C.O in 2017. This will provide an opportunity to India’s Prime Minister to meet and interact with all his counterparts from Central Asia every year. An important reason for India’s failure to fully realize potential of our partnership so far  with this region is the infrequent contacts between leaders of these countries. Annual SCO summits will provide a forum to leaders of these countries to meet and discuss issues of bilateral and regional interest.

An added advantage is that Russian leadership will also be present at these conclaves. Because of the historical association of Central Asia and India with Soviet Union/Russia, several possibilities exist to promote cooperation in security, defence, energy and economy with Central Asian region in conjunction with Russia.

Another significant development, although confined to relations with only one Central Asian State and not the region as a whole, is commencement of construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline . This project has been under protracted discussions for last several years. The 1800 km long pipeline is expected  to be completed by end 2019. India is expected to receive about 13 bcm per annum  once the pipeline is completed.

In January 2019 India proposed the formation of  “India- Central-Asia Development group” to take forward development partnerships between India and the Central Asian countries.

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CONCLUSION

Strengthening of relations between India and Central Asia is to mutual benefit of all countries involved. It is not directed at countering China’s presence in the region.

• India is interested in expanding its ties with the region as it will promote security, stability, economic growth and development of all countries.
• Good relations with India will provide an assured market to these countries for their energy, raw materials, oil and gas, uranium, minerals, hydro electric power etc.
• India is the fastest growing economy in the world today and can be a stable, assured, expanding market for these countries.

The current political, strategic and economic scenario, both regionally and internationally, presents immense challenges but also potential for India and Central Asia to qualitatively enhance their engagement.

Both India and Central Asia are factors of peace, stability, growth and development, in the region and the world.  Stronger relations between them will contribute to increased security and prosperity of these countries and the world.

Source: OBSERVER RESERCH INSTITUTE(Orfonline.org)