India-Pakistan-Bangladesh account for approximately 95% of South Asia’s GDP and population. Along with China, they account for 18.5% of global GDP and 41% of global population.

Extent of poor unity in south Asia :-

India-Pakistan rivalry, further complicated by China-Pakistan proximity and India-China hostility.

Souring of Pakistan-Bangladesh relations :-

• Commercial ties between the two countries had generally been affected by a slow paced development in trade diplomacy since last few years.
• Besides issues of non-tariff barriers, including visa issues to Pakistani businessmen hinder commercial contacts between our two countries.
• Both states have also withdrawn their diplomatic missions and Pakistan also avoided attending the SAARC Sanitation Conference
• The bilateral trade of Pakistan and Bangladesh is also not very significant.

India Pakistan:-

• Pakistan and India have potential trade capacity of $20 billion compared to the current $3 billion.
• Terrorism, border disputes and militancy in Kashmir are leading to harmful impact on the South Asian region as a whole.
• Aircargo flights are encumbered by limited access to Indian airspace by Pakistan and vice-versa.

India Bangladesh :-

• Underdeveloped transport and logistics services and bureaucratic procedures are deterring India-Bangladesh cross border trade, which can grow by 300%.
• India-China tug of war over Bangladesh.
• Illegal migration,land and maritime boundary issues,insurgency,drug trafficking.
• The growing trade deficit is also a great concern for Bangladesh. Despite Dhaka’s repeated requests, India has been tardy in relaxing tariffs and non-tariff barriers and opening up the market of Indian provinces bordering Bangladesh.
• Another thorny issue is shooting at the border by Indian guards.
• Although India and Bangladesh have started exploring opportunities using Ashuganj inland port, regional inland waterways remain unexplored.

Connectivity issues in south Asia :-

• The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC) has a pivotal position in developing joint investment agreements but sluggish progress in infrastructural development has rendered the corridor nearly comatose.
• Due to cross-border barriers and lack of transport facilitation among IPB, freight movement is taking place along expensive routes, escalating investment cost.
• Movement of trucks across the international frontier is confined by absence of cross-border agreements between India and Bangladesh and India and Pakistan.
• Rail connectivity is restricted due to technical problems of different gauges, track structures, signalling and so forth. Absence of a multilateral agreement has restricted the realisation of the railway potential.

Water disputes:-

• The three largest trans-boundary river basins, Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra, are all within China-India-Pakistan-Bangladesh. This represents a huge potential for water-sharing and hydro power projects across the basins, but political mistrust is an impediment.
• The Zangmu hydroelectricity dam has raised concerns in India over downstream water supply. This damming, along with that of the Ganga, could exacerbate Bangladesh’s downstream water scarcity.

Other issues:-

• IPB fail to attract sufficient tourists due to poor civil aviation connectivity, complex regulations and lack of visa liberalisation procedures.
• Communalism has cast a pall of darkness over South Asian region. Religious zealots, who hardly practice their respective religions, are the main communal and sectarian activists fomenting troubles and dividing their society; thus undermining national solidarity.

However there are still good relations among the countries:-

• India, Pakistan and Bangladesh (IPB) have common sociocultural bonds and people-to-people connectivity remains positive.
• India continues to be the natural choice for external investors including Chinese multinational enterprises like Alibaba and Xiaomi. In 2016, foreign direct investment to Pakistan rose by 56%, largely due to Chinese investment in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure.
• China has already pledged $38 billion to Bangladesh under the BRI. Synergetic integration of the economic corridors with other BRI projects can accelerate inward investment into IPB
• Trade relationship has improved significantly between India and Bangladesh. India has provided zero duty access of Bangladeshi products thereby addressing the tariff related issue to a great extent.
• Bangladesh, Cambodia and China have signed a framework to strengthen digital regional trade.
• Pakistan- Bangladesh:-Despite problems in trade relations, Pakistani and Bangladeshi entrepreneurs continue to participate in annual exhibitions/trade fairs like Dhaka Trade Fair and Expo Pakistan.

Implications of poor unity in south Asia :-

Chinese factor:- China is injecting huge funds into physical infrastructure such as Pakistan’s Gwadar port project and $20 billion in various Indian industrial and infrastructural projects. China has committed $1.4 billion for building Colombo Port City and is set to invest $1 billion more. So the influence of China is increasing in South Asia.

A surge in Chinese economic and diplomatic involvement in South Asia poses a serious rival for Indian influence in its neighbourhood. For instance Maldives Nepal moving towards China. China’s increasing role in Nepal, Indian ocean, Srilanka is causing concerns to India .

Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan are paying the price of regional disintegration.

Trade is still not up to the mark and is way below potential.

Impacts the security issues and terrorism and makes border management more vulnerable.

The role of SAARC is diminishing and south Asia trade is taking toll.

Way forward:-

• China can lead in transport and transit agreements to facilitate smooth movement of freight and passenger vehicles across IPB resulting in integration with China and also South Asia.
• With greater electricity generation and utilisation of domestic energy endowments, combined efforts of BCIM, CPEC and the proposed China-Nepal-India (CNI) Economic Corridor under BRI, can capitalise on regional energy potential.
• Digital connectivity can act as the gateway to a holistic transformation of the region via the CIPB conduit.
• China is unable to attract students from South Asia against the improved facilities provided by the U.S. and U.K. Only 5% of outbound students of IPB go to China, compared to 22% to the U.S. If these opportunities are tapped, it would enhance mobility of both tourists and students.
• India thus needs to strengthen the various regional groupings in this region like the ASEAN and the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). Importantly, they should work together to resolve all the issues.
• India and Bangladesh need to strengthen their military ties. Much more can be done in terms of increasing visits, contacts at various level as well as by selling military hardware. Apart from initiating joint exercises, India should consider the China model of gifting hardware in the initial instance, and offer technical expertise that Bangladeshi military is in need of.
• Commonalities like shared history, more or less common language, common heritage, literature, art, and culture can be enhanced through track II diplomacy, which in turn can be expanded and taken to another level through skilled diplomacy of leaders Through shared goals, means, and institutions (like SAARC) every regional state including these three can achieve their interests and get satisfactory status on the regional and international level.

Conclusion:-

Strategic collaboration that rises to the occasion, looking beyond historical animosity and misgivings, can unlock a new era of regionalism whose benefits far outweigh negatives.