Background:-

India is the 13th most vulnerable country to climate change. Since more than 60 per cent of its agriculture is rainfed and it hosts 33 per cent of the world’s poor, climate change will have significant impacts on the food and nutritional security.

Impacts of climate change on India’s regions :-

Indo gangetic plain:-

• The Indo-Gangetic plain is one of the most populous and productive agricultural ecosystems in the world.
• Climate change will result in both flood and drought, impacting agriculture in the region
• Floods :-High-intensity precipitation events projected to increase, leading to floods, particularly in the eastern parts of the basin.
• Drought :-Western parts of the basin both Haryana and Punjab are likely to become vulnerable to drought.

Punjab:-

• Drought days to extend by 23-46 days in lower Sutlej basin
• Increase in flash floods
• Severe water-logging in south-western region

West Bengal:-

• Intensity of cyclone to increase
• Sea surge height may increase to 7.46 metres
• Sea level rise will be higher than global average
• Sunderbans and Darjeeling hill to have more rain

Haryana:-

• Increase in water evaporation
• Not much change in groundwater recharge despite high rainfall
• Increase in agricultural water stress by 2100

UP and Bihar:-

• A mere 1°C rise in temperature to reduce wheat yeilds significantly in UP
• Rice yeilds are expected to decline in Bihar
• Drought to increase in UP and Bihar

The Indian Himalayan region:-

• The Himalayas, which represent about 16.2 per cent of the total area of the country, are not only a key watershed of India but also play a crucial role in the monsoon system. Climate change impacts on the mountain range can affect the entire sub-continent
• The mean temperature of the Himalayas has gone up by 0.6°C in the past 30 years; the frequency of warmer days is also increasing
• The northeastern states of India, particularly parts of Assam and Manipur, are vulnerable
• Flash flood due to glacial lake outbursts may lead to landslides and affect large-scale food security
• Himalayan glaciers melting faster than others elsewhere in the world
• Productivity of apple has decreased by 2-3% over the past few years. This will go down further
• Projected increase in intensity of rainy days is 2-12% in the Himalayan region

Central and Peninsular India:-

• The region covers most of India’s rainfed areas that contribute more than 40 per cent of the country’s foodgrain production. Already ravaged by frequent floods and droughts, this region will be severely impacted by climate change, affecting the country’s food security

Temperature:

• Six of the 11 states will witness a temperature rise of 1°C to 4°C. Maharashtra will record a 3.4°C increase by 2100
• Most states will have hotter summer and winter.
• The winter temperature in Jharkhand will rise to such an extent that the lowest minimum temperature in the 2080 will be higher than the highest minimum temperature in the 2020s

Rainfall:

• Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand will witness increase in rainfall.
• Summer rainfall will increase by the end of this century and the number of rainy days during summer will increase by up to 10 days by 2100 in Jharkhand
• The post-monsoon and pre-monsoon increase in rainfall is projected to be more than the increase in rainfall projected for the monsoon period for 2100
• Rayalaseema region of Andhra Pradesh, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka will witness less rainfall. In Andhra Pradesh, there will be drastic decrease in southwest rainfall over Anantapur and Kadapa districts
• Northern Karnataka, already witnessing less rainfall and higher temperature, will see the temperature trends accentuated

Impact:-

• The number of days with `high’ or `very high’ rainfall (>25 mm/day) is projected to increase over Maharashtra, while the number of days with `low’ to `modrate’ rainfall is expected to reduce
• Fluctuating weather to affect agricultural yield in all the states
• For Karnataka, an increase in droughts is projected for 2021-50 for the two growing seasons. Most of the northern districts of Karnataka would have 10-80% increase in drought incidences

The desert region:-

• The Thar desert, covering 10 per cent of the total geographic area of India, is the seventh largest desert in the world. The region has witnessed unheard of floods in the recent past.

Drought :

• Parts of Rajasthan and the Kutch region of Gujarat have the highest probability of occurrence of drought
• Rajasthan:-The share of water for agriculture is set to reduce from 83% to 70% by 2050

Gujarat:-

• There will be heat stress and water shortages in the state
• Luni and the West-flowing rivers of Kutch and Saurashtra to experience acute water shortage
• The severity of drought for the Mahi and Sabarmati rivers will increase between 5% and 20% by 2050

The coast and islands:-

• The region is already witnessing climate change impacts like frequent, severe cyclones and sea ingression due to sea level rise.
  
• The Kutch region in Gujarat and the entire eastern coastal region are projected to have the highest incidence of cyclone.
• Coconut yields in Kerala are projected to increase by 30%
• Sea water intrusion will impact drinking water sources
• A one-metre rise in sea level will displace 7.1 million people in India
• Temperature fluctuation will negatively impact winter crop in AP.
•