Threats to India’s security and Defence budget: Striking a balance

“If you want to have peace be prepared for war” as the saying goes, but India since independence have been facing internal and external security challenges thus eluding peace.

The unending proxy war, cross border terrorism and cease fire violations on daily basis by Pakistan on one hand and China flexing its muscles and furthering its expansionist policy on other pose a grave security threats from our eastern and western front . More serious is the Pak- China axis for which India needs a robust security strategy and Grand strategy to counter the threats emerging from our neighbourhood. Though our Army Chief has time and again stated that India is ready for a two and a half war but this statement seems more psychological in nature and the ground realities are totally different. Our Finance Minister allocated Rs 4,04,365 crore (US $62.8 billion) for the Ministry of Defence (MoD). Of the MoD’s total allocations, Rs 2,79,305 crore ($43.4 billion) was earmarked for what is widely considered as India’s defence budget, and the balance was distributed between MoD (Miscellaneous) (Rs 16,206 crore) and Defence Pensions (Rs 1,08,853 crore). Like in the past several years, the defence budget for 2018-19 also grew marginally, with much of the growth being cornered by rising manpower cost. Though the major chunk of the defence budget is for army but the threats emerging from maritime boundary need to be addressed and the Indian Navy has to be empowered by allocating a good chunk of the budget. Army gets 50%, Navy 18% , Air force 27 % and others 6%. Our air power is also depleting and we are in urgent requirement of fighter aircrafts. . Though there has been around 7 % increase in the defence budget which is 1.5 % of our total GDP but it is comparatively less keeping in view the threat perceptions.

The Draft Defence Production Policy-2018

Delay in Procurement further makes this issue complex, though india’s has come up with the new policy. The draft defence production policy 2018 is ambitious and forward looking. Unlike the 2011 policy, the draft of the 2018 policy sets a clear vision, a set of objectives and strategies. Its vision is to put India “among the top five countries of the world in aerospace and defence industries,” though the timeframe within which this is to be achieved has not been articulated. The key objectives of the policy include development of a strong defence industry leading to higher self-reliance. Setting its sight on the need to reduce the current high import dependency, the draft policy identifies 13 sets of weapon systems/platforms (including fighters, helicopters, warships, missile systems, ammunition and explosives, land systems, and electronics) whose development and manufacture would commence latest by 2025. Other objectives include an increase in domestic arms sales to Rs 170,000 crore ($26 billion) by 2025, with around one-fifths of it –Rs 35,000 crore ($5.0 billion) – coming through exports.
The policy also intends to make India a “global leader in cyberspace and AI [artificial intelligence] technologies” as India is considered to be the software capital of the world. This policy aims at India’s long term defence requirement and seems little over ambitious in nature. India needs to address the immediate threats emerging from both land and maritime with China mounting pressure and new strategic alliances being formed in Asia. The start of Cold war 2.0 and recent incidence of expulsion of Russian diplomats by USA/Europe and by Russian in its response by the west the temperature is bound to rise.

Diplomacy over Military- Economic Aspects of war 

Military strike is a remedy not a solution
Though Make in India and new DDPr Policy is a right approach to counter the threats but diplomatic engagement with China and Pakistan for confidence building is the need of the hour. Any incidence between our immediate neighbour can escalate in to a full scale war and can be catastrophic as all three possess Nuclear weapons. Moreover in the era of Globalisation no nation will indulge in full scale war as it not only results in killing of innocent people and material devastation but puts a nation off track and results in economic paralyses.

By: Ajay Kumar