Context

• It is being perceived as a tightrope walk for India, taking a more neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war.
• It is widely said that India’s statement at the UN lacked condemnation of the Russian invasion.

India-Ukraine Relations: A backgrounder

• With a population of over 40 million and an area of about 600,000 sq km, Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe.
• India has an extensive bilateral relationship with Ukraine, spanning all spheres of cooperation. India was one of the first countries to recognize Ukraine.
• India recognized the Republic of Ukraine as a sovereign country in December 1991 and established diplomatic relations in January 1992.
• The Embassy of India in Kyiv was opened in May 1992.  Ukraine opened its Mission in Delhi in February 1993 – its first in Asia.

(1) Trade

• Bilateral trade between the two countries has grown significantly in the last 25 years.
• As per data from the Indian government, the bilateral trade between the two nations stood at $2.3 billion so far this fiscal, compared with $2.5 billion in the last fiscal (FY21). 
• India is Ukraine’s largest export destination in the Asia-Pacific and the fifth largest overall export destination.

(2) Diplomacy

• India and Ukraine have signed several MOUs/Agreements in many spheres.
• These include Diplomatic relations, visa matters, consular matters, trade and commercial matters, space, science and technology, defense, etc.

(3) Culture

• There is a great interest in Indian culture in Ukraine at the public level, covering various aspects such as dances, yoga, philosophy, Ayurveda and spirituality.
• Many Indian movies have also been shot in Ukraine, for example most recent being the ‘Bahubali 2: The Conclusion’.
• A small but vibrant Indian community lives in Ukraine, comprising mostly of business professionals and students.
• There are about 18,000 Indian students studying in Ukraine, mainly in the field of medicine.

Why is Russia invading Ukraine now?

• Undoing historic injustice: President Putin has frequently accused Ukraine of being taken over by extremists, ever since its pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted in 2014 after months of protests against his rule.
• Ukraine’s affinity towards West and NATO: Russia has long resisted Ukraine’s move towards the European Union and the West’s defensive military alliance, NATO.
• So-called ‘oppression’ in Ukraine: It is now clear that Russia is seeking to overthrow Ukraine’s democratically elected government. Its aim is that Ukraine be freed from oppression and “cleansed of the Nazis”.

Why is this war a no-lesser significant event?

Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is a clear violation of the rules-based international order.

• First war of the century: These are terrifying times for the world, witnessing a major power invading a European neighbour for the first time since World War II.
• Annexation of a democratic nation: For Europe’s leaders, this invasion has brought some of the darkest hours since the 1940s.
• Covid disruptions: The global economic landscape, in a post-Covid situation, is in a shambles.
• Intense militarization: The military industrial complex everywhere will be strengthened. As more and more armament is used up in the conflicts and more arms are manufactured.
• Heading up towards mutually assured destruction

India’s position on this war so far

(1) India is subtle to Russia

• New Delhi has taken a subtle pro-Moscow position on the question of Russian attacks against Ukraine.
• This pro-Russia tilt is not just the position of the Indian government, but is something, somewhat surprisingly, shared by much of the Indian strategic community as well.

(2) Evacuation of Indians remain a priority

• Ukraine has sought India’s support in its fight against the Russian forces.
• In an emotional appeal, Ukrainian ambassador urged PM Modi for a personal intervention.
• Hundreds of Indian students remain stranded in Ukraine and its border which is seemingly India’s topmost priority.

How would the war impact India?

(1) Economic Impact

• This war has immediate consequences for global trade, capital flows, financial markets and access to technology.
• It can hurt Asia through multiple channels, such as:
• Tighter global financial conditions
• Elevated uncertainty and the risk of weaker global demand
• Higher commodity prices, especially oil

(2) Impact on diaspora

• According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Education and Science, there are around 18,095 Indian students in the country. In 2020, 24 per cent of its overseas students were from India.
• Ukrainian medical colleges are a godsend for students who are unable to get seats in government colleges or afford the hefty prices charged by private institutions in India. 

India’s dilemma

• India may not share a border with either Russia or Ukraine, and as many intellectual elites have already argued, the case for New Delhi not taking sides is straightforward.
• The West’s critical sanctions will inhibit any nation (including India) from doing business with Russia and potentially diversify Russia-India ties.

India needs Russia

• Arms trade: Russia is one of India’s largest arms suppliers and a key strategic ally. More than half of India’s arms imports between 2016-2020 were from Russia.
• Independent foreign policy: India’s special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia as a totem of Indian strategic autonomy.
• Multi-polarity and institutional reforms: India shares Russia’s goal of a multipolar world. It is a member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and of BRICS, a loose grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

What message has India’s silence conveyed?

• India is neither openly criticizing nor endorsing Russian actions.
• However, this radio silence is seen as an endorsement of war.

Why is India silent?

• China’s political patronage to Russia: A deepening global crisis would allow Russia to deepen its ties with China for political support, market access and technology.
• Decline of US hegemony: A US-led international order now seems pretty much over, anchored as it was by financial imperialism through dollar-dependence, a petro-dollar market and via strategic military dominance.
• Open opportunism for China: It is likely to use this opportunity to exhaust America’s foreign policy attention-capital away from its strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.
• Balancing China: This circumstances could negatively affect the coordinated approach that Delhi seeks among like-minded partners to balance China.

Western narratives of India’s position

• Maintaining influence: India’s recent effort aims to “reclaim” or expand its “sphere of influence” in the Indian subcontinent.
• Endorsing unification through revivalism: It creates a rhetoric around the integrated creation of Akhand Bharat is part of the thought process of right wing factions.
• India’s territorial overtures for future: There have been voices of reclaiming Pakistan occupied Kashmir using the clouds of this war.

Is India doing a mistake?

• Russian justifications for its actions against Ukraine are similar to those Beijing makes versus India:
• Historical claims on territory
• Ethnic Linkages
• This military action would go against the respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty for which India frequently advocates.
• Moscow may or may not be able to moderate Chinese antagonism towards New Delhi.
• The hawks and the far right wing will gain popularity due to this war.

Threats remain to India

This war on Ukraine could have major implications for India’s strategic calculus:

• Increasing Chinese assertion: It will no doubt embolden China and its territorial ambitions.
• Sanctions on defense trade: India may be sanctioned by the US if it continues with the S-400 missile system deal, but also could extend to future defense purchases.
• Pakistan Proximity: Pressure from the West on Russia will move it closer to India’s adversaries, China and Pakistan.

Options for India

There are four potential options India can/could choose from:

1. Condemn
2. Support
3. Stay silent or
4. Express displeasure and call for diplomacy

The first option will pit India against Russia, the second will pit it against the U.S. and its allies, the third option will be read as pro-Russia, and the fourth option — which it has taken — is the least harmful.

Way forward

• Geopolitical priority: India’s Russia tilt should be seen not just as a product of its time-tested friendship with Moscow but also as a geopolitical necessity.
• Upholding morality: However, with the rise of right-wing populism and authoritarianism across the globe, moments such as this in history, warrant bold, corrective action – and more importantly, a principled, moral outlook.
• Upholding democratic principles: Silently siding with Russian imperial nostalgia, India’s “balanced posturing” and silent endorsement of the Russian president may hurt India’s credentials as a democratic republic.
• No factionist divisions: India must also make it clear to coercing countries that their “with us or against us” formulations are hardly constructive. There are no innocents in this conflict.

By: VISHAL GOYAL