IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change

Context: According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the  world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C and even temporarily exceeding this warming level would mean additional, severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible.
Background of the Report

• Over the years, each assessment report has built on the work of the previous ones, adding more evidence, information and data, so that most of the conclusions about climate change and its impacts have far greater clarity, certainty and wealth of new evidence now, than earlier.
• The first part report was released in August last year which was centred around the scientific basis of climate change. 

The third and final part of the report, which will look into the possibilities of reducing emissions, is expected to come out in April.

• Each of these reports have also progressively expanded the scope of their assessment, and introduced fresh information about different aspects of climate change.

Key highlights of the Report

• The latest warnings have come in the second part of IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report which talks about climate change impacts, risks and vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. 
• It has warned of multiple climate change-induced disasters in the next two decades even if strong action is taken to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas emissions. 
• Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. 
• It has said the ability of human beings, and natural systems, to cope with the changing climate was already being tested, and further rise in global warming would make it even more difficult to adapt.
• The latest report, for the first time, made an assessment of regional and sectoral impacts of climate change. 

Mega cities Vulnerabilities

• It says Lucknow and Patna are among cities predicted to reach wet-bulb temperatures of 35°C if emissions continued to rise.

It has included risks to, and vulnerabilities of, mega-cities around the world. 

• For example, it has said Mumbai is at high risk of sea-level rise and flooding, while Ahmedabad faces serious danger of heat-waves. 
• Such granular information was not available in previous assessment reports. Flooding in Mumbai and heat-waves in Ahmedabad are common occurrences. 
• What this report has done is to look at granular data affecting these events, and quantified these risks, so that there is a much clearer understanding of the threats posed to these cities.

Health impacts of climate change

• The rise in weather and climate extremes have led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt.

Also for the first time, the IPCC report has looked at the health impacts of climate change. 

• It has found that climate change is increasing vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria or dengue, particularly in sub-tropical regions of Asia. 
• It has also said deaths related to circulatory, respiratory, diabetic and infectious diseases, as well as infant mortality, are likely to increase with a rise in temperature. 
• Increasing frequency of extreme weather events like heatwaves, flooding and drought, and even air pollution was contributing to under-nutrition, allergic diseases and even mental disorders.

Uneven Climate change

• The report has said the impacts of climate change were far greater, more frequent and vastly more disruptive than previously understood.
• The report has said that while strong actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near term, in the next 20 years, would substantially reduce the threats, and the projected damages, they would not eliminate them all. 
• If the temperature rise crossed the threshold of 1.5°C from pre-industrial times, then many changes could be irreversible.
• Droughts and heatwaves will trigger biodiversity loss, as well as human migration which will severely impact food production and food security. 

Fragile ecology

• It is expected that by 2050, we would reach 1.5 degrees Celsius. Even the slightest change in climate will have a long-lasting impact on the Himalayan region due to its fragile ecology. 
• There would be a rapid increase in incidents like the Chamoli disaster and extreme weather events like heavy precipitation that we saw in Himachal and Uttarakhand this year.

Global sea levels will likely rise 44-76 cm this century if governments meet their current emission-cutting pledges. 

• With faster emission cuts, the increase could be limited to 28-55 cm. But with higher emissions, and if ice sheets collapse more quickly than expected, sea levels could rise as much as 2 m this century and 5 m by 2150.

Lack of adaptation measures

• It has recognised progress being made to adapt to the new situation, but pointed out that, in most places, it was nowhere close to what is required to be done. 

“Adaptation is essential to reduce harm, but if it is to be effective, it must go hand in hand with ambitious reductions in greenhouse gas emissions because with increased warming, the effectiveness of many adaptation options declines.

Adaptation planning and implementation has been observed across all sectors and regions, generating multiple benefits, it was unevenly distributed with observed adaptation gaps. 

• It has said the gaps in adaptation was a result of lack of funds and political commitment, and also the absence of reliable information and a sense of urgency.

Key Solutions 
The report stressed on the need to take adaptation measures:-

• It has pointed out that there were “feasible and effective” adaptation options which could reduce the risks to people and nature. But the effectiveness of these options decreases sharply with further increases in temperature.
• Many initiatives prioritise immediate and near-term climate risk reduction which reduces the opportunity for transformational adaptation.

India will achieve net zero emissions latest by 2070, that is, there will be no net carbon emissions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared at the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year. By 2030 India would also ensure 50% of its energy will be from renewable energy sources. 

• India will reduce its carbon emissions until 2030 by a billion tonnes and cut its emissions intensity per unit of GDP by less than 45%. India would also install 500 Gigawatt of renewable energy by 2030, a 50 gigawatt increase from its existing targets.

The Sixth Assessment Report, however, has presented lots of evidence to suggest that pursuing a 2°C target could be disastrous, and more ambitious actions need to be taken to keep the temperature rise within 1.5°C.
Road Ahead

• This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction, “It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. To combat this surge of crises, developing countries like India will need to significantly scale up their adaptive capacity. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks.