Anatomy of India’s Ukraine dilemma

Context: India abstained from a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution which is for condemning the Russian military action against Ukraine.
India’s Response

• India’s response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine has been shaped by harsh geopolitical situations.
• Although India abstained from voting against Russia, India expressed strong uneasiness about the Russian actions.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi, spoke to Russian President Putin and called for an “immediate cessation of violence”
• India has so far ignored Ukraine’s pleas that urge India to mediate with Russia to halt its military advances.

Options for India
Condemn Russian aggression

• This option will set India against Russia.

Support Russian aggression

• This option will set India against the U.S. and its allies.

Remain silent on Russian aggression

• This option will be considered as pro-Russian tilt.

Express displeasure (short of condemning) and call for diplomacy

• It is one of the best possible options for India as it is least harmful.

India’s pro-Russian Tilt

• India has taken a subtle pro-Russian position on the Ukraine issue.
• This pro-Russia tilt is not just the stand of the government, but also of the Indian strategic community.
• There is an increasing hearing of subtle and indirect justifications of the Russian military actions from the Indian strategic community.
• India’s Russia tilt is not just because of its friendship with Russia but instead it is a geopolitical necessity.

Reasons for India’s pro-Russian tilt:-
Weakened US led global order

• India is slowly recognising the weakening of the U.S. led global order and the rise of China as a major power.
• US withdrawal from the region (Middle east and central Asia) and its decline as the chief system shaper has further complicated India’s position in the region.

The China factor

• China as the rising superpower and Russia as its strategic ally at a time when China has shown its aggressive intentions against India is an unprecedented challenge for India.
• Hence, having Russia for its support is crucial for India.
• Even though Russia may not be able to counter Chinese actions towards India directly, an India-Russia strategic partnership will certainly help India.
• The longer the standoff lasts in Ukraine, the closer China and Russia could become, this certainly is a problem for India.

Hostile neighbourhood

• India is currently under immense pressure from China, Pakistan and Taliban-led Afghanistan in its neighbourhood. Here lies the dilemma for India.
• India needs Russia’s help to manage its neighbourhood problems through defence supplies, working together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) or exploring opportunities for collaboration in Afghanistan.
• Russia is India’s only partner of consequence in the Continent.
• If the U.S.-Russia rivalry becomes more severe, the focus on the Indo-Pacific and China would reduce.

Implication of India’s interests

• Russian action in Ukraine ignoring the concerns of the rest of the world including the U.S. will strengthen China and its territorial ambitions.
• The new sanctions regime may have implications on India’s defence deals with Russia.
• Further India’s weak response on the issue will reduce India’s ability to be a “swing state” or a “leading power”.
• India’s position also indicates that when it comes to geopolitics, India will prioritise its interests over its principles.
• If tensions between Russia and the West continue, balancing the two will be a complex task to Indian diplomacy.

Strategic autonomy

• In the recent past, India’s strategic autonomy has been under a lot of stress.
• However, India’s response to the Ukraine crisis, particularly its “explanation of vote” at the UNSC indicates a recourse to the principle of strategic autonomy.
• India made it clear that it will make statements and will not be pressured by either party.
• In this regard, India’s subtle support to Russia is not due to Russian pressure but is to safeguard its own interests.

Conclusion

• India’s response to the Ukraine crisis exposes the vulnerability of India, given its hostile neighborhood. This may diminish India’s projection as major power or swing state. It also shows that when it comes to geopolitics, India will choose its interests over principles. The move shows India’s adherence to strategic autonomy and safeguarding its own interests.

Road Ahead

• With the stalemate at the UNSC, India being friends with both the United States/West and Russia, and being constantly urged by Ukraine, is uniquely placed to undertake some much-needed mediation between the rival sides.