India’s challenge in European geopolitics

Context: The resignation of Germany’s Naval chief over his comments made in India, show the complexity of European geopolitics.

• For India, an important strategic priority today is to rebalance the Indo-Pacific. Delhi, however, recognises that this expansive challenge can’t be met by any one power, including the US. A larger European role in securing Asia therefore becomes critical.

Importance of Russia in balancing China

• Peace with Russia in Europe might be necessary for America to focus on Asia has been the key motivation behind President Joe Biden’s decision to intensify engagement with Vladimir Putin in the last few months.
• On the question of Ukraine’s membership of NATO, the US and its European allies have suggested that membership is certainly not imminent; but they are unwilling to say Ukraine will “never” be admitted.

Geopolitical contradictions

• First, Europe remains geopolitically unstable. The European settlements of 1919, 1945, and 1991 have not provided stability.
• Second, Europe is struggling to integrate Russia on mutually acceptable terms. Bolshevik revolution of 1917 put Russia and the West at odds with each other. The collapse of the Soviet Union has not resolved this contradiction.
• Third, there is growing tension between the US and Europe. Though Europe relies on the US for its security, it resents American dominance over its geo-politics. This was stated by EU’s foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell and also by French president Emmanuel Macron.
• Fourth, The emergence of the idea that Europe must look after its own security. Though the EU is a powerful economic entity ($17 trillion), it is still a weak security actor.

Why Europe remains a weak security actor?

• Dominance of the US and Russia: The ambition to construct a strong geopolitical personality for the EU is hobbled by divisions over the role of Russia and the US in the region.
• Mutual suspicions: The historically rooted mutual suspicions among European states also plays role.
• Reluctance to spend on defence: This is compounded by the reluctance to spend more on defence and the inability to develop collective defence arrangements outside of NATO led by the US.

Suggestions for India
The contradictions in Europe demand that Delhi discard its tendency to view the region through the “East versus West” binary.

• Delhi today could profitably take a leaf out of the book of the Indian national movement.

In the late 18th century, as European powers competed for influence in the subcontinent, many Indian princes sought to take advantage of the contradictions between Britain and France.

• Imperial Germany supported the formation of a nationalist government of India in Kabul in 1915 headed by Raja Mahendra Pratap Singh.

Eager to accelerate Indian independence during the Second World War, Netaji turned to Germany and Japan, the world’s newest great power.

• The sharpening struggle for Indian independence, and more broadly the liberation of Asia between the two World Wars, inevitably involved exploiting the contradictions between different imperial powers.

This was complicated, however, by rapid realignment among the major powers —friends became adversaries and enemies became allies.

• The Indian and Asian national movements were deeply divided in coping with the shifting great power dynamic.
• The world enters a similar moment today that could rearrange relations between the US, UK, Europe, Russia, China and Japan.

Road Ahead

• India’s struggle for independence involved exploiting the contradictions between different imperial powers. As the world enters a similar movement, and there is an emergence of tensions between the US, UK, Europe, Russia, China, and Japan, India should leverage these contradictions for its national benefit.