Context: Recently, United States has warned Russia not to invade Ukraine and urged both countries to return to a set of agreements designed to end a separatist war by Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine.
Key Issue

• Russia is seeking assurances from the US that Ukraine will not be inducted into NATO. However, the US is not prepared to give any such assurance.
• This has left the countries in a stand-off, with tens of thousands of Russian troops ready to invade Ukraine.
• Russia is keeping the tensions high at the Ukraine border in order to get sanctions relief and other concessions from the West.
• Any kind of military action by the US or EU against Russia would precipitate a major crisis for the whole world, and has so far not been mooted by any of the parties involved.

Background

• Ukraine and Russia share hundreds of years of cultural, linguistic and familial links.
• For many in Russia and in the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine, the shared heritage of the countries is an emotional issue that has been exploited for electoral and military purposes.
• As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic after Russia, and was crucial strategically, economically and culturally.

Cause of Conflict

• Balance of Power: Ever since Ukraine split from the Soviet Union, both Russia and the West have vied for greater influence in the country in order to keep the balance of power in the region in their favour.
• Buffer Zone for Western Countries: For the US and the European Union, Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West. As tensions with Russia rise, the US and the EU are increasingly determined to keep Ukraine away from Russian control.
• Russian Interest in Black Sea: The unique geography of the Black Sea region confers several geopolitical advantages to Russia.

Here is a look at the agreements, which were signed in Minsk in 2014 and 2015.
MINSK I

• Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists agreed a 12-point ceasefire deal in the capital of Belarus in September 2014. 
• Its provisions included prisoner exchanges, deliveries of humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of heavy weapons, five months into a conflict that by that point had killed more than 2,600 people - a toll that has risen to more than 14,000 now, according to the Ukrainian government. The agreement quickly broke down, with violations by both sides.

MINSK II

• Representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions signed a 13-point agreement in February 2015 in Minsk. 
• The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine gathered there at the same time and issued a declaration of support for the deal.
• The deal set out a series of military and political steps that remain unimplemented. A major blockage has been Russia's insistence that it is not a party to the conflict and therefore is not bound by its terms. 
• Point 10, for example, calls for the withdrawal of all foreign armed formations and military equipment from the two disputed regions, Donetsk and Luhansk: Ukraine says this refers to forces from Russia, but Moscow denies it has any there.

The 13 points were, in brief

1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire
2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides
3. Monitoring and verification by the OSCE
4. To start a dialogue on interim self-government for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in accordance with Ukrainian law, and acknowledge their special status by a resolution of parliament.
5. A pardon and amnesty for people involved in the fighting
6. An exchange of hostages and prisoners.
7. Provision of humanitarian assistance.
8. Resumption of socio-economic ties, including pensions.
9. Restore full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine.
10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment and mercenaries.
11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine including decentralisation, with specific mention of Donetsk and Luhansk.
12. Elections in Donetsk and Luhansk on terms to be agreed with their representatives.
13. Intensify the work of a Trilateral Contact Group including representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE.

India’s Stand

• India did not join the Western powers’ condemnation of Russia’s intervention in Crimea and kept a low profile on the issue.
• In November 2020, India voted against a Ukraine-sponsored resolution in the United Nations (UN) that condemned alleged human rights violations in Crimea thereby backing old ally Russia on the issue.Assam Rifles’ dual control structure, and its role