Keeping a close eye on China’s nuclear capabilities

Context: The only real substantive outcome of the recent virtual summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping has been some unconfirmed reports of the two sides, the United States and China, agreeing to hold strategic nuclear talks sometime in the near future.

• The PRC’s nuclear capabilities, in particular, are undergoing a fundamental transformation and a shift seems to be evident in both the quantity and the quality of the PRC’s atomic arsenal. India needs to be cautious.

Evidence of China’s expanding Nuclear Arsenal

• Recently, greater evidence has emerged that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is expanding the size of its nuclear arsenal by building more missile silos (storeroom).
• It indicates that the PRC is fielding a larger nuclear force based on fixed land-based capabilities.
• The nuclear missile silo field in the Xinjiang region in western China is believed to host 110 silos.
• Also, there is evidence that China had built a site with 120 silos in the arid region of Yumen, in the Gansu province.

Evidence from the SIPRI Year Book 2021

• According to the SIPRI Year Book 2021, China’s nuclear arsenal consisted of 350 warheads at that start of 2021, up from 320 at the start of 2020.
• China is pursuing a planned modernisation of its nuclear arsenal because it fears the multi-layered missile defence capabilities of the United States.
• China is arming its missiles with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) capabilities to neutralise America’s missile shield.
• The Peoples Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) fields a range of Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) and Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs), and China also on a sizeable inventory of fissile material.
• China’s expansion is cause for concern because even as the U.S. and Russia are attempting to reduce the size of their respective arsenals, the PRC is on an expansionist mode.

What are the implications for India of China’s increasing military capabilities?
For India, there are some serious implications with China’s increasingly minatory nuclear military capabilities.

• First, the size of China’s nuclear arsenal complicates the potency of India’s nuclear arsenal. A significantly larger Chinese nuclear arsenal paired to missile defences will limit damage to the PRC. It also threatens the survivability of the Indian nuclear arsenal.
• Secondly, the Launch on Warning (LoW) posture reduces the decision time for any Indian retaliatory nuclear strike in the heat of a war or crisis and places pressure on India to pursue its own LoW. The PRC could also significantly degrade an Indian retaliatory strike if China chooses to resort to First Use (FU) of nuclear weapons, and completely eradicate India’s nuclear forces.
• Thirdly, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese have added two new Type 094 (Jin class) SSBNs/nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines to their existing fleet. The Chinese Navy has carried out bathymetric and ocean mapping surveys in the Indian Ocean, crucial to the execution of sub-surface military operations. 
• The Bay of Bengal’s sea depth is very conducive for nuclear submarine missions, which will leave India exposed to a Chinese atomic pincer from the maritime & the continental domain.
• The major concern is the coercive leverage fixed land-based nuclear capabilities give the Chinese in consolidating their territorial gains in Depsang, Demchok and Gogra-Hotsprings.
• It is unlikely that the strategic balance between China and India will change because of the Chinese nuclear expansion, but it is essential for India to keep a close eye on its neighbour and work on enhancing its own strategic capabilities.

Road Ahead

• Indian strategic planners will have to think about the quantitative nuclear balance and India’s nuclear posture vis-à-vis the PRC. The maritime dimension of China’s nuclear capabilities might not be an immediate strategic challenge but will potentially become one in the coming years for New Delhi. It will have to specifically watch the pattern in the People Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) nuclear submarine deployments and address the deficit in its subsurface nuclear delivery capabilities.