Rise of pan-Turkism and it means for India

Context: Recently, on the 8th Istanbul summit, the Council of Turkic States has been elevated to “Organisation of Turkic States”.

Impact of political ideas on global politics

• Internationalism based on religion, region or secular ideologies has always run headlong into resistance from sectarianism and nationalism.
• Yet, these ideas have a profound impact on global politics.
• Calls for regionalism and internationalism as well as religious and ethnic solidarity often end up as instruments for the pursuit of national interest.

The rise of pan-Turkism

• Foundation of OTS: The international symbol of solidarity among peoples of Turkic ethnicity has been the Council of Turkic States, formed in 2009 by Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
• At a summit of the Council’s leaders last week in Istanbul, it was announced that the forum has been elevated to an “Organisation of Turkic States”.
• Hungary, which has a long history of association with Turkic people, and Turkmenistan have observer status.
• At least a dozen other countries have apparently shown interest in getting observer status.

Implications: There is no escaping the fact that Turkey is determined to rewrite the geopolitics of Eurasia.

• The rise of pan-Turkism is bound to have important consequences for Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Central Asia and, more broadly, India’s Eurasian neighbourhood.

Rise of Turkey in Central Asia

• Soft power initiatives: Over the last three decades, a number of soft power initiatives — in education, culture, and religion — have raised Turkey’s profile in Central Asia and generated new bonds with the region’s elites.

Military power: It is in the domains of hard power — commercial and military — that Turkey’s progress has been impressive.

• Turkey has stunned much of the world with its military power projection into the region.
• That Kazakhstan, a member of the Russia-led regional security bloc, is moving towards strategic cooperation with Turkey, a member of US-led NATO, points to the thickening pan-Turkic bonds in a rapidly changing regional order.

The dominance of economy and trade: Nearly 5,000 Turkish companies work in Central Asia. Turkish annual trade with the region is around $10 billion.

• This could change as Turkey strengthens connectivity with Central Asia through the Caucasus.
• For the Central Asian states, living under the shadow of Chinese economic power and Russian military power, Turkey offers a chance for economic diversification and greater strategic autonomy.

Connectivity: Turkey has also made impressive progress in building transportation corridors to Central Asia and beyond, to China, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

• The so-called Lapis Lazuli Corridor now connects Turkey to Afghanistan via Turkmenistan.

What should be India’s approach towards Turkey?

• Pan-Turkism is a good reason for India to explore a more purposeful engagement with Turkey.
• Issues: There is no denying that the current differences between Delhi and Ankara over Kashmir, Pakistan and Afghanistan are real and serious.
• Need for dialogue: The current political divergence only reinforces the case for a sustained dialogue between the two governments and the strategic communities of the two countries.
• Lessons for India: Turkey’s own geopolitics offers valuable lessons on how to deal with Ankara.
• That Turkey is a NATO member has not stopped Erdogan from a strategic liaison with Russian.
• Purchase of advanced weapons like S-400 missiles from Moscow  does not stop Erdogan from meddling in Russia’s Central Asian backyard.
• Criticism of China’s repression of Turkic Uighurs in Xinjiang — that was once called “Eastern Turkestan” — goes hand-in-hand with deep economic collaboration with Beijing.

What does this policy tell India?

• One, Erdogan’s enduring enthusiasm for Pakistan does not preclude Turkey from doing business — economic and strategic — with India.
• Limiting Turkish hegemony: Erdogan’s ambitions have offended many countries in Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Caucasus.
• Many of them are eager to expand strategic cooperation with India in limiting Turkish hegemony.
• This opens a range of new opportunities for Indian foreign and security policy in Eurasia.
• Imperative to engage: Sceptics will point to the fact that Erdogan’s time is running out.
• That does not, however, alter the Indian imperative to engage with Turkey.

Road Ahead

• Independent India has struggled to develop good relations with Turkey over the decades. A hard-headed approach in Delhi today, however, might open new possibilities with Ankara and in Turkey’s Eurasian periphery.