Context: Recently, the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP), an international think tank released the second edition of Ecological Threat Report (ETR) 2021: Understanding ecological threats, resilience and peace.
Key highlights of the report

• Around 1.26 billion people across 30 countries are suffering from both extreme ecological risk and low levels of resilience.
• These countries are least likely to be able to mitigate and adapt to new ecological threats, leading to mass displacement.
• Data were assessed for threats relating to food risk, water risk, rapid population growth, temperature anomalies and natural disasters.

Of the 178 countries in the ETR

• 30 were identified as hotspots for having low levels of resilience and a medium to extremely high catastrophic threat score.
• 13 faced extremely high and 34 others faced high ecological threats.
• The most vulnerable countries are clustered in the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
• Climate change will have an amplifying effect, causing further ecological degradation and pushing some countries through violent tipping points.
• Of the 15 countries most threatened, 9 are in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by 3 in south Asia.

Region wise analysis

• South Asia is the worst-placed, with water and food risks driving the average ETR score in the region.
• In sub-Saharan Africa, the score is influenced by high levels of population growth, which will place increased pressure on existing food and water scarcity.
• The region has the highest proportion (66 per cent) of its population suffering from food insecurity, highlighting its severity of water and food risks.
• Population growth and resource scarcity are intrinsically linked with conflict in sub-Saharan Africa.
• The report recommended a policy to combine health, food, water, refugee relief, finance, agricultural and business development into one integrated agency in high-risk areas and empowering local communities.

Other key findings of the report are

• 11 of 15 countries with the worst environmental threat scores are currently classified as being in conflict.
• Another four are classified as at high risk of substantial falls in peace, highlighting the relationship between resource degradation and conflict.
• Global food insecurity has increased by 44 per cent since 2014, affecting 30.4 per cent of the world's population in 2020, and is likely to rise further.
• From 1990 to 2020, a total of 10,320 natural disasters occurred globally. Flooding has been the most common natural disasters, accounting for 42 per cent of the total disaster count.
• In 2020, 177 countries and territories recorded a warmer average temperature compared to their historical average temperatures.
• 11 countries are projected to double their population between 2021 and 2050. They are all in sub-Saharan Africa.
• The three countries with the largest projected increases in population are Niger, Angola and Somalia, where the populations will increase by 161, 128 and 113 per cent, respectively.