Context: A rising youth population in India can provide many benefits to India. The demographic dividend is close to five-decade-long demographic opportunities that can be leveraged only with suitable policies and programmes.

• COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns have deepened the Inequality in India. The dominance of the informal economy makes the government subsidies and employment schemes a difficult one for all benefactors to reap the benefits.

Current Scenario

• According to various international studies, the median age in India would be 28 years by 2022-23, in contrast to 37 in China and 45 in Western Europe. This is an enormous growth opportunity as India will have the highest number of people in the workforce.

Challenges due to Covid-19

• As per an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) study, the equivalent of five years or more of per capita income is likely to be lost by the end of 2021 due to Covid-19.
• The World Bank mentioned that the world would witness deep global recessions fuelled by lowered investments, displacement of human capital, and disintegration of global trade and supply chains.
• The effects of increased use of plastics and the generation of bio-medical wastes during the pandemic will cost, fisheries, tourism, and maritime transport industries, an additional $40 billion, according to a UN Environment Program report.

The two caveats
The demographic dividend is an extraordinary opportunity. There are, however, two caveats.
First: Dividend available in different states at different times.

• India’s population heterogeneity ensures that the window of demographic dividend becomes available at different times in different States.
• Example of Kerala vs. Bihar: While Kerala’s population is already ageing, in Bihar the working-age cohort is predicted to continue increasing till 2051.
• Decline in 11 major states by 2031: By 2031, the overall size of our vast working-age population would have declined in 11 of the 22 major States.

Second: Many factors that matter for harnessing the dividend
Factors that matter: Harnessing the demographic dividend will depend upon the-

• Employability of the working-age population.
• Health.
• Education.
• Vocational training and skill.
• Besides appropriate land and labour policies, as well as good governance.

Demography is not destiny: India will gain from its demographic opportunity only if policies and programmes are aligned to this demographic shift. Demography is not destiny.

Advantages of rising young population

• India’s non-working population would be outnumbered by the working population, leading to a favourable demographic dividend. This will accelerate urbanisation and the growth of industries.
• The purchasing power of the populace will increase. It will open up a bigger domestic market, thus attracting more investment and increasing opportunities.
• The younger population will be more climate-conscious. This can simply be explained by younger generations seeing the real-time impact of climate change. Further, they will be more inclined to act towards a greener tomorrow.
• This is also clear by a UN report on climate change. The report mention that close to half a million youth around the world have taken (or are taking) action against climate change through initiatives at their homes, schools, and communities.
• This is the reason the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), 2021, puts only two G20 (or Group of Twenty) countries — India and U.K. — in the top 10.

Suggestions

• The need of the hour is for public-private partnership (PPP) models to bridge the skill gap.
• Education and skilling are also key components in enhancing the capabilities of the growing young population
• Labour-intensive sectors need to be better supported for further job creation.
• Government policies must ensure that they comprehensively cover all aspects aimed at increasing human development and standards of living.

Ensure training in line with the market demand: Most districts now have excellent broadband connectivity-

• Let geography not trump demography: Irrespective of a rural or urban setting, the public school system must ensure that every child completes high school education, and is pushed into appropriate skilling, training and vocational education in line with market demand.
• Translating literacy into skill: Growing female literacy is not translating into relevant and marketable skills.
• A comprehensive approach is needed to improve their prospects vis-à-vis gainful employment.
• Need of the flexible policies: Flexible entry and exit policies for women into virtual classrooms, and into modules for open digital training, and vocational education would help them access contemporary vocations.

Road Ahead

• The policies that we adopt and their effective implementation will ensure that our demographic dividend, a time-limited opportunity, becomes a boon for India.

By: Shubham Tiwari