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India, home to 18% of the world’s population, uses only 6% of the world’s primary energy.
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India’s energy consumption has almost doubled since 2000 and the potential for further rapid growth is enormous.
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India’s economy, already the world’s fifth, is growing rapidly and policies are in place to press ahead with the country’s modernisation and an expansion of its manufacturing.
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If a well-managed expansion of energy supply can be achieved, the prize in terms of improved welfare and quality of life for India’s 1.3 billion people is huge.
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Accroding to the World Bank estimate (2020), 99% of India's population has access electricity. Though another estimate suggests that 96.7% of India's population is now connected to grid. 2.4% of Indian households are still unelectrified. Most of them are concentrated in the rural areas of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Bihar. Majority of the unelectrified houses cited their inability to afford grid-connection as the reason for not having and electricity connection.
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Policy-makers at national and state levels are intensifying their efforts to ensure that energy is a spur, rather than a hindrance, to India’s advancement, looking to removing obstacles to investment in energy supply while also focusing on energy efficiency and pricing reform (the deregulation of diesel prices in late 2014, taking advantage of the fall in the oil price, means that all oil-based transport fuels are now subsidy-free).
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The MoP governs the electricity sector in India and also hosts the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE).
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The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is the main advisor to the MoP and is responsible for the technical co-ordination and supervision of programmes and data collection and dissemination, notably through the five-year National Electricity Plan.
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Under the Electricity Act 2003 the Central Energy Regulator Commission (CERC) is responsible for: fixing tariffs (regulated tariff and the tariff discovered through competitive bidding); licensing of transmission and trading; market development(facilitating open access, licensed traders, power exchanges); grid security (grid code, deviation settlement mechanism, ancillary services); regulating the interstate transmission system; adjudication of disputes; promotion of renewable energy sources; consumer protection; among other matters. The State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) collaborate through the Forum of Regulators (FoR).
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Public-sector undertakings (PSUs) under the MoP include the Power Finance Corporation (PFC) and Rural Electrification Corporation, which function as non-banking financial institutions and provide loans for power sector development.
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National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) is India’s largest integrated thermal power company and the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) the largest hydropower producer.
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In addition, the MoP oversees the functioning of the North Eastern Electric Power Corporation (NEEPCO), the system operator Power System Operation Corporation (POSOCO) and the central transmission utility Power Grid Corporation of India Limited(Powergrid).
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India has several electricity transmission operators in the country.
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Powergrid owns and operates the majority of the interstate transmission lines, while intrastate lines are owned by the state transmission utilities. As recent reforms opened the sector to private or merchant investment, private-sector entities also build, own and operate interstate transmission lines.
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Some energy-related departments are run directly under the Prime Minister’s Office. These include the DAE, which works on the development of nuclear power technology and the application of other radiation technologies, and NITI Aayog, which is an official think tank and policy advisory body of the GoI, co-ordinating activities that are inter-ministerial in nature, such as India's electric vehicle (EV) programme and reform of energy data.
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DAE has a mission to enhance the share of nuclear power in the power sector by deployment of indigenous and other proven technologies, as well as thorium-based reactors with associated fuel cycle facilities.
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A central-government-owned corporation administered by the DAE, the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) is responsible for the generation of nuclear power, operating India’s 21 nuclear reactors.
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The MNRE(ministry of new and renewable energy) is in charge of the development of solar, wind and other renewables in India.
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Under the MNRE are the National Institute of Solar Energy, the National Institute of Wind Energy and the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA), which functions as a non-banking financial institution providing loans for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects.
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Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) is responsible for the implementation of various MNRE subsidy schemes, such as the solar park scheme and the grid-connected solar rooftop scheme.
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Biofuels are managed by the MoPNG.(ministry of petroleum and natural gas).
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India is one of the largest electricity market areas in the world, comparable to the power systems of the European Union, the People’s Republic of China (“China”), the Russian Federation (“Russia”) and the United States.
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The national grid of India is the largest national synchronous grid in the world.
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The Government of India (GoI) has focused on keeping up with strong demand growth, while expanding energy access to millions of consumers every year.
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After years of scarcity, India’s electricity system has now reached surplus power and good adequacy thanks to investment in thermal and renewable capacity, including from the private sector, which accounts for around 50% of the installed power capacity.
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The GoI has been working to foster the financial health of the power sector.
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Long overdue reforms of power distribution companies (DISCOMs) are also taking shape, fostered by the central government Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme to decrease debt ratios.
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To avoid continuous bail outs of the DISCOMs by India’s governments, the GoI has announced plans to strengthen the UDAY scheme and introduce strict conditionality of government loans to the power sector as part of a new tariff policy.
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As the renewable energy sector has entered a period of very dynamic development, more effortsare needed to remove barriers to investment and maintain momentum, notably for distributed generation, such as solar photovoltaic (PV).
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India has reached “one nation one grid” as it has synchronised its regional grids into one national grid at one frequency, but its markets remain fragmented, notably at the retail level, but also in wholesale trading.
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Structural reforms are under discussion to foster the creation of a wholesale market place for trading of power across India, including least-cost dispatch of electricity. The GoI is now tackling these structural concerns. In the context of surplus power, opportunities abound to carry out reforms to incorporate best practices from around the world.
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These particularly relate to the governance of power markets and systems to build a joint vison and enhance the role and collaboration of system and grid operators.
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India has built an institutional framework capable of providing the required investment.
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Reforms to this framework would allow greater economic efficiency, notably to boost cost-effective dispatch and balancing at the intrastate level, increase cross-border transmission capacity available for trades and better utilise existing assets.
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Today around 90% of trading is done through bilateral long-term contracts. This prevents efficient price discovery in the market, and leads to stressed assets and renewable energy curtailment.
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Governance challenges at the interface between open markets and regulated services currently limit the opportunities for economic efficiency and consumer benefits. Structural market reforms are needed to further improve the financial stability, reliability and efficiency of electricity distribution. Reliable electricity supply to consumers can be fostered by introducing power quality norms, metering and billing, and moving towards cost-reflective and market-based tariffs.
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India’s electricity generation has increased exponentially in the last decade, with an average annual growth rate of 6%.
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Share of coal power in India's total installed capacity (in 2022) is 49.9%. Total contribution of fossil fuels in India's total installed power capacity is 57.9%.
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Share of renewable energy in total power generation has gone up.
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Hydropower in India's installed power capacity in around 11%.
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Power generation from other renewables (wind, solar, and bioenergy and waste) has increased.
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Nuclear power is also increasing, but at a much slower pace than coal and renewables.
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Recently, India stands 4th in solar PV deployment across the globe as on end of 2021. Solar power installed capacity has reached around 61.97 GW as on November 2022.
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Solar installed capacity in India has increased rapidly from 2.63 GW in 2013 to 61.97 GW in 2022.
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The largest power markets within India are the states of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka.
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The act covers major issues involving generation, distribution, transmission and trading in power.
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The Act delicenses power generation completely (except for all nuclear and hydro-power projects over a certain size).
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10 percent of the power supplied by suppliers and distributors to the consumers has to be generated using renewable and non-conventional sources of energy.
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The techno-economic clearance from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has been done away with for any power plant, except for hydro-electric power stations above a certain amount of capital investment.
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The generators can sell electricity to any licensees or where allowed by the state regulatory commissions, to consumers directly.
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The regulatory body can impose a surcharge to compensate for some loss in cross-subsidy revenue to the State Electricity Boards (SEB’s) due to this direct sale of electricity by generators to the consumers.
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The Act licenses distribution in rural areas and brings in a licensing regime for distribution in urban areas.
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No person shall transmit electricity; or distribute electricity; or undertake trading in electricity, unless he is authorised to do so by a licence issued by authorised commissions.
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Setting up the State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC) has been made mandatory.
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An appellate tribunal to hear appeals against the decision of CERC and SERCs.
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Metering of electricity supplied was made mandatory.
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For rural and remote areas, a stand-alone system for generation and distribution is permitted.
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Thrust to complete rural electrification and provide for management of rural distribution by panchayat, cooperative societies, NGOs, franchisees etc.
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Central Electricity Authority (CEA) to prepare the National Electricity Plan.
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Discoms are the weakest link in the electricity value chain.
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They are plagued by low collection, higher power purchase cost, inadequate tariff hikes and subsidy disbursement and mounting dues from government departments.
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The tentatively-named Atal Distribution System Improvement Yojana (ADITYA) scheme will help power distribution companies (discoms) pare their losses and effectively monitor electricity consumption.
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The ?2.86 trillion scheme aims to ensure continuous power supply to all residents and it involves adopting models such as privatizing state-run discoms and having multiple supply, network and distribution franchisees.
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The scheme envisages states to approve a roadmap to make discoms viable by switching to prepaid smart meters within three years and also clearing their dues.
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It will specify a trajectory for loss reduction and contain incentives and disincentives for meeting targets.
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States with more than 18% aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses can opt for an infrastructure support reform package.
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This entails choosing an option between running discoms in the public-private partnership (PPP) mode, inducting multiple supply and network franchisees, and working through input-based distribution franchisees.
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It has set an ambition of reducing electricity losses to less than 12%.
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The energy sector plays a critical role in both meeting sustainable development objectives and reducing environmental externalities in India.
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The country is vulnerable to climate change impacts and is exposed to growing water stress, storms, floods and other extreme weather events.
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Adaptation and resilience of the energy system to these conditions should receive higher political priority.
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Moreover, India attaches great importance to the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on ozone-depleting substances, given its soaring cooling demand.
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India acknowledges that early action to address air pollution and emissions will reduce future adaptation needs.
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Providing secure, affordable and sustainable energy to all is an important policy priority in India, and major progress has been made towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably SDG7 on energy.
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India has been addressing energy-related environmental pollution since the 1980s, including issues related to air, water andland, and energy sector waste, with ground-breaking legislation under the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act.
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Universal household and village electricity access 1 has been a key priority for the Government of India (GoI) for the past 15 years (with particular focus on rural areas).
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In April 2018 the GoI announced that India had achieved its goal of providing electricity to every village in India (600 000 villages).
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A year later, in April 2019, the GoI announced that it had effectively connected all the households that were willing to do so (26 million), according to the latest government data.
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The Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana (DDUGJY) and the Saubhagya schemes are the two main government policies to respectively complete provision of electricity access for every village and household.
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The introduction of the Saubhagya scheme in September 2017 helped accelerate the rate of household electrification, connecting the last mile.
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Over 95% of people who have gained electricity access in India since 2000 have done so as a result of grid extension, according to the IEA.
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Coal power has been used to supply about 75% of the new electricity access since 2000, with renewable sources accounting for around 20%.
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Enhancing the use of clean energy will play an important role in ensuring that electrification objectives are in line with delivering air quality improvements as well as reducing GHG emissions.
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The access paradigm is, however, changing. Recent mini-grid policy developments show promising signs for enhancing the role of renewables in ensuring electricity access.
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A draft national renewable energy mini-grid policy was published in 2016 with the aim of developing 10 000 micro-grids and mini-grids with a combined capacity of 500 megawatts.
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Air pollution is a major cause for concern in India and a key policy priority for the government.
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Combinations of various air pollutants from a diverse range of sources have led to very unhealthy levels of air pollution concentrations in certain regions, in particular major urban areas.
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The energy sector is the largest source and therefore also the key component of the solution for the air pollution crisis in India.
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Combustion of fossil fuels (in power, transport and industry) and bioenergy are the two key activities releasing air pollutants and causing negative health impacts. Non-energy-related sources, such as dust from construction of buildings and roads or fallow fields, also play an important role.
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Episodes of high concentrations of air pollutants can also be exacerbated through particular non-energy sector related events, such as burning of crop residue in specific seasons, the pollution from which can migrate from rural to urban areas. The air pollutants most characteristic to energy sector activities, including NOX, SO2 and PM 2.5.
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As many as 10 of the top 20 most polluted cities in the world are located in northern and north-western India, exceeding World Health Organization (WHO) recommended average annual concentrations by on average 10 times .
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In 2017 air pollution caused around 1.2 million premature deaths in India (12.5% of the total), with household air pollution estimated to have been the cause of over 480000 of them, and outdoor air pollution attributed to an estimated additional 670 000 (GBD, 2019).
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Coal used in power generation contributed 7.6% of all PM 2.5.
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At the end of November 2019 grid-connected renewable electricity capacity reached 84 GW, with 32 GW coming from solar photovoltaic (PV), around 37 GW from onshore wind and the remainder from small hydro. Solar PV has been on a rapid rise in recent years.
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To increase investment in renewable electricity in a cost-effective way, India has introduced national competitive auctions for wind and solar PV. Lessons have been learned following the abrupt change in the renewables support scheme from feed-in-tariffs to centrally run reverse auctions.
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Current auction volumes show that wind power has developed at a much slower pace than solar PV.
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The auctions complement other policy measures at state level, such as Renewable Purchase Obligations, and at a local level, such as further support for rooftop PV installations. To ensure continuous progress in the growth of renewables, auction design, grid connections and the financial health of the power distribution companies (DISCOMs) are critical elements for reform.
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Modern renewable energy is not only used in electricity generation – the potential is also great for heating, cooling and transport.
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India needs a holistic strategy for renewable energy to tap into this potential and to make sure that market development can be beneficial for sustainable development more generally, including local air and water quality. Potential also exists to scale up the use of bioenergy, including energy-from-waste(EfW), which requires robust sustainability governance.
The MNRE has several policies to incentivise and facilitate rooftop installations:
a) providing central financial assistance for residential, institutional, social and government buildings;
b) advising states to implement net/gross metering regulations and tariff orders;
c) providing a model memorandum of understanding, power purchase agreement (PPA) and APEX agreement for rooftop projects in the government sector; and
d) appointing experts to support public-sector undertakings in the implementation of rooftop projects in ministries and departments.
b) offering 1.75 million standalone solar agriculture pumps, central government to provide 30% subsidy and state government to provide 30% subsidy; and
c) converting 1 million grid-connected agriculture pumps to solar powered operation with central government and state government providing 30% subsidy each.
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The GoI included nuclear energy in the country’s NDC (UNFCCC,2015) and set ambitious targets to increase India’s nuclear capacity, if the supply of fuel can be ensured.
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Its 12th Five-Year Plan for 2012-17 called for total installed nuclear capacity of 63 GW equivalent by 2032.
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India has a total of seven nuclear reactors under construction, including four indigenous PHWRs totalling 2 800 MW, two Russian-built 1 000 MW PWRs and a 1 500 MW indigenous FBR.
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Moreover, India has discussed plans with France’s EDF for six EPRs, with the United States for six AP1000s, and additional six VVERs from Russia.
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In January 2019 the government stated that plans for new nuclear would fall well short of its 2032 target of 63 GW and that the total capacity is likely to be about 22.5 GW (WNA, 2018).
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India’s Department of Atomic Energy informed India’s parliament that 21 new reactors with a total installed capacity of 15 700 MW are expected to be completed in the country by 2031.
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CEA’s National Electricity Plan of 2018 confirmed 15 GW of nuclear by 2027.
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India has a largely indigenous nuclear power programme.
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Due to earlier trade bans and lack of indigenous uranium, India has uniquely been developing a nuclear fuel cycle to exploit its reserves of thorium.
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Of its total capacity, 14 reactors with an installed capacity of 4 280 MW are under IAEA safeguards and use imported fuel.
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The remaining 8 reactors with an installed capacity of 2 400 MW use indigenous fuel.
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In 2008 India and the Nuclear Suppliers Group signed an agreement that opened the doors to international trade of nuclear technology and materials.
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Bilateral agreements with the United States, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, South Korea, the Czech Republic, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Namibia and Japan were signed.
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Investment challenges in India relate to the liability of the vendor for all nuclear safety aspects, rather than the operator, which makes the import of foreign technology difficult (some bilateral agreements have special provisions to dispense with India’s liability law).
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In 2016 the GoI asserted that “international and domestic concerns” over India's liability laws had been resolved with the 2015 establishment of the India Nuclear Insurance Pool, but suppliers remain hesitant to invest in India.
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Electric car sales in India are still negligible as a share of vehicle sales.
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In 2013 the GoI launched the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020.
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The government has a target for 15% of vehicle sales to be electric by 2022 and introduced a significant incentive programme, the so-called Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &)Electric Vehicles, or FAME.
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It provides subsidies to cities across India worth around 60% of the cost of the purchase of EVs.
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India also has a support programme for local EVmanufacturers.
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Many states, such as Karnataka, Telangana, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh and Maharastra, have followed national policy and set state-level targets for the deployment of EVs, including electric buses.
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Depending on the charging method used, EVs can provide flexibility resources to the power system (smart charging, time-of-use charging, vehicle-to-grid [V2G] services).
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However, they can also create significant system integration challenges locally.
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In line with the EV ramp-up, further adjustments to the tariff systems will be required.
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As of today 13 Indian states have a defined tariff for charging of EVs, but only 4 states (Delhi,Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Telangana) have applied tariff pricing to the category.
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Previous studies on the impact of EV charging on system integration have found that fixed time-of-use pricing approaches can have negative side effects for the system, because EV charging can contribute to capacity spikes that can occur at the beginning of low-cost time windows.
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Hence, promoting managed charging of entire EV fleets in line with real-time system conditions is likely to be the preferable option once EVs achieve scale.
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India is the world’s second largest producer of coal after the People’s Republic of China.
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The share of coal in both the energy mix and the power mix in India has been increasing since the 1970s, and in 2017 coal provided 44% of the total primary energy supply (TPES) and 74% of electricity generation.
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Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel resource in India, although Indian coal is generally of poor quality, with high ash content and low calorific value.
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With the nationalisation of India’s coal industry in 1975, Coal India Limited (CIL) was set up as a monopoly to market coal and to manage the coal mines.
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This decision reflected the need to have energy for economic growth, and a new appreciation of energy security after the first oil shock.
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Being the most abundant fossil fuel in India, coal was identified as the foundation of its energy supply. The nationalisation aimed to foster safety, mitigate frequent mining accidents and stimulate investment in the country.
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In 1993 the coal production monopoly of CIL was partially broken with the allocation of captive blocks for power, iron and steel and, later on for cement, coal gasification and coal liquefaction.
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A decade later, in 2003, power sector reform triggered coal demand to rise rapidly in this sector. Over the years, however, coal production was not able to catch up with demand and CIL faced difficulties ramping up production, not only because of insufficient investment and productivity, but also because of barriers to production caused by delays in statutory clearance, notably to use land that was dedicated to afforestation.
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The coal demand–supply gap started increasing year by year, which was met through imports. With a view to developing and increasing domestic coal production, the Government of India (GoI) allocated 218 coal blocks to captive use. However, in 2014 the Supreme Court declared that the majority (204 out of 218) of the captive block allocation from 1993 was arbitrary and illegal, which brought production at those blocks to a halt.
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To auction these cancelled coal blocks through competitive bidding and to allocate the same to public-sector companies, in 2015 the GoI enacted the Coal Mines (Special Provision) Act and amended the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act of 1957 and the Coal Mines (Nationalisation) Act of 1973.
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Considerable progress has been made in building coal power plants and in ramping up coal production. Since May 2014, 52 new mines have been opened, adding over 160 Mt of mining capacity per year.
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Coal power generation has increased continuously in India since 1973, which has reinforced the role of coal in electrification and economic development, and explains why addressing the negative impacts of coal was not a priority, given the focus on increasing the supply of energy, in particular electricity generation. Most of the coal consumed in India is domestic and a large share of it is transported throughout the country, sometimes over long distances. As coal supply has been scarce, the allocation of coal is regulated by the government to ensure supply is prioritised while reducing transport and logistics costs. Given that demand is scattered throughout India, this means that coal is mostly transported by the rail system.
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Transport of increasing amounts of coal over long distances has put pressure on the rail system.
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Coal mining supports direct employment of around 500 000 workers.
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Considering direct and indirect employment, several million jobs are dependent on the coal industry.
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However, India has to deal with the environmental externalities linked to production and use of coal, which are equally abundant – its ecosystems are affected by mining, there is air pollution from coal use, impact on water at different stages of the production and consumption process, and the CO2 emissions associated with coal burning.
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India’s coal dependence is unlikely to disappear in the medium term and it is therefore a must for policymakers, industry and, more generally, Indian society, to minimise its negative impacts by using state-of-the-art technology in a cost-efficient way.
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Today, the Indian coal sector is at a crossroads. On the one hand, the Indian economy is expected to grow considerably in the coming years, and so too are the three largest coal-consuming sectors: electricity generation, iron and steel and cement production.
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The prospects for the electricity sector are bright, driven by economic development, the increasing number of people with access to electricity and the growing middle class who will expand their use of air conditioners and other appliances. On the other hand, climate commitments made by India (within the framework of the Paris Agreement), air pollution, water stress in some areas and other environmental issues, and the declining costs of renewables, in particular solar photovoltaic (PV), impact the business case of the coal sector at large.
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The main certainty is that, given its central role in the energy and economy in India, a part of India’s success in the future is linked to the successful and efficient management of the coal sector.
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In 2017 coal production totalled 726 Mt, of which 635.6 Mt was thermal coal, 47.5 Mt lignite and 40.9 Mt coking coal.
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Almost 94% of the production is open pit, with the balance mined in underground mines.
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Production costs in India are INR 1200/t (USD18/t) on average, lower than in most countries, even adjusted for quality, as the country has low strip ratios.
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Average costs are very much dependent on the performance of CIL, which accounts for 80% of domestic production (with an average cost of INR 1 176/t).
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However, production growth has not been able to keep up with demand growth, especially since the electricity sector reform of 2003, leading to increasing domestic coal supply shortages and imports.
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Hard coal production in India is concentrated in four states – Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh – which account for almost 80% of production.
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Other producing states are Telangana, Maharashtra and West Bengal, with smaller volumes produced also in Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya and Assam.
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Jharkhand is the largest producer of coking coal.
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4 High-ash coal, i.e. coal with a low calorific value (CV), is predominant in India, with 70% of domestic supply in the CV range of 3 400-4 600 kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg) GAR (gross as received).
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This is lower quality than the international standards, especially seaborne-traded thermal coal, which is typically in the range of 5000-6 000 kcal/kg NAR (net as received).
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Lignite production in India (around 47 Mt in 2017) is much smaller than hard coal, and it is produced mostly in three states: more than half in Tamil Nadu and less than one quarter each in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
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The National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) is India’s largest coal power generator and one of the largest in the world, with 52 GW of installed coal generation capacity.
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Utilities owned by the state governments hold another 59 GW, while independent power producers (IPPs) account for 75 GW.
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Different public joint ventures in which NTPC is present account for 5 GW.
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Additionally, there are captive power plants with a total capacity of 54 GW, which produce electricity for own use in certain industries (steel, aluminium, cement and fertilisers).
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India has 50 GW of capacity under construction, with 50% being supercritical, while among installed capacity less than one-third is supercritical.
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India’s subcritical coal-fired fleet is relatively young at 15 years old on average.
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Coal power generation has grown at an astonishing rate of 8% per year during the past decade, surpassing the robust growth of 6.5% in power demand, which was strongly driven by the Electricity Sector Reform of 2003.
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Besides operational issues, a low plant load factor has economic implications for the recovery of investment costs.
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Around 55 GW of coal power plants in India are under severe financial stress, including many state-owned plants, for which tariff revenues very often do not cover generation costs. Private plants are struggling to conclude power purchase agreements (PPAs) and fuel supply agreements (FSAs).
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These non-performing assets in the power system have become a problem for the financial sector, as many of them have not repaid their loans.
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2019 generation optimisation plan a large potential investment in new coal plants up to 2030 (105 GW of pithead plants and 44 GW of load-centred plants) (CEA, 2019).
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The 2018 National Electricity Plan includes a new target for the closure of 48.3 GW of end-of-life coal plants. Specifically, the plan forecasts the closure of the oldest 22.7 GW of coal power plants up to 2021/22.
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This would include 5.9 GW of normal end-of-life retirements and 16.8 GW of early closures because of non-compliance with air quality regulations.
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An additional 25.6 GW of coal capacity is being considered for early retirement in the five years from 2021/22 to 2026/27.
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India’s power system is experiencing rapidly rising shares of variable renewable electricity, which has two different impacts on the economics of existing coal power plants.
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On the one hand, it means less generation from these plants will be needed, which brings more economic and financial stress for many producers. On the other, flexibility requirements of the electricity system will rise. Many coal plants in India were not designed to follow load, but to provide baseload power.
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The GoI is currently identifying the plants that can and need to provide such flexibility. The deployment of other sources of flexibility, such as natural gas, pumped hydro storage or nuclear remain below expectations.
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The implementation of the new power market reforms are important to support flexibility and CERC has proposed reforms of ancillary services and short-term markets and economic dispatch.
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Oil remains an essential energy source for India.
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It is the second-largest source in the country’s total primary energy supply (TPES) and the largest in its total final consumption(TFC).
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Oil demand has increased rapidly over the last several decades and India is now the third-largest oil-consuming country in the world.
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In the last decade, India’s domestic oil production has remained relatively stable at an average of 862 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), with an annual average growth rate of 0.3%, but oil’s share of total domestic energy production has declined.
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For refined products, India’s production has increased steadily and the country is currently a net exporter.
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Over the same period, India’s oil demand grew by more than 50%, mostly led by rapid growth in gasoline and diesel for transport, the largest oil-consuming sector, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in cooking.
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While the rate varies, oil demand has been growing across all sectors and is expected to surpass that of the People’s Republic of China(“China”) in the early 2021 as India becomes the leader of oil demand growth.
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With continued strong growth in oil demand against falling domestic production, India has become more reliant on oil imports, which hovered around 83% in 2018.
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At the same time, India’s import bill for crude oil has increased by 27% from USD 88 billion in 2017 to USD 112 billion in 2018.
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In March 2015 Prime Minister Modi set out a roadmap to reduce India’s oil imports by 10% by 2022.
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To address this, India has been broadening its strategic partnerships through international bilateral investment and foreign direct investment in India to diversify the country’s import sources and suppliers.
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The Government of India (GoI) has created the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves (ISPRL) to build its strategic crude oil reserves.
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With net imports expected to grow in the future, India can benefit from further reinforcing its oil emergency response policy, with increased emergency stocks and demand-restraint measures to counterbalance disruptions. As oil demand is expected to remain robust, India should also continue to enhance its international engagement in oil security issues.
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Petrochemicals play an essential role in enabling the key sectors of the economy to grow.
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India's annual petrochemical consumption is expected to triple to 80 MMt by 2040 forcing the country to either raise imports or invest into building new facilities. India, Asia's third largest economy, annually consumes 25-30 MMt of petrochemicals. India is a net importer of petrochemicals.
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Per capita consumption of petrochemicals in India is significantly lower than that of the developed economies.
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India is expected to contribute 10% to the incremental growth of global petrochemical demand. To promote the petrochemical sector, the Government of India has allowed 100% FDI through automatic route.
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The “Make in India” programme will give a boost to the country’s manufacturing industry, such as the automotive sector, requiring more plastics, and the increased focus on agriculture and irrigation will accelerate the demand for petrochemical fertilisers.
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The GoI’s thrust to improve national infrastructure will also stimulate the demand for synthetic materials for construction.
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In order to meet such growing demand for petrochemical products, a number of Indian state-owned energy companies are making major investments to further promote their petrochemical activities, and are expected to become significant players in the sector.
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Capacity expansions by several other manufacturers are moving ahead and gradually filling the gap between domestic demand and supply.
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Overall, the outlook for the petrochemical industry in India is more positive than it has been recently, as the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial outputs in key end-use sectors (such asautomotive and packaging) are expected to be higher than in previous years.
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There are 23 refineries with a combined refining capacity of around 5.2 mb/d.
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Out of the 23 refineries, 19 are in public sector, one in joint venture, and 3 in private sector.
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The proportion of capacity belonging to public-sector, private-sector, and joint-venture refineries stood at 57%, 36% and 7%, respectively.?
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The three largest single refineries are privately owned by Reliance and Nayara Energy, which add up to a total capacity of 88.2 Mt/y.
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They are all located on the west coast of the country facing one of the world’s largest crude oil-producing regions – the Middle East – in order to benefit from low transport costs.
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Although several refinery projects have faced delays in the past few years due to financial issues or extreme weather events, the world’s largest oil refinery and petrochemical mega-project with a capacity of 1.2 mb/d is being planned in Ratnagiri. It is a joint venture of state owned companies – IOCL, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are taking a 50% stake, with international partners Saudi Aramco and ADNOC.
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The project was expected to be completed in 2024 and commissioned in 2025, but is running into delays. The completion of this mega-project would boost India’s oil product exports after a medium-term slowdown (IEA, 2019a).
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Some refineries are planning to upgrade their capacity to produce higher-quality fuels with reduced sulphur, conforming to Bharat Stage (BS) VI (EURO VI) emission standards.
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Since April 2017 India has been rolling out EURO IV compliant fuels called BS-IV, but has decided to leapfrog the EURO V norms and directly adopt the EURO VI standard from April 2020.
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In October 2018 the Supreme Court ordered that vehicles only complying with the BS IV fuel standard cannot be sold or registered in the country after 1 April 2020.
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The development of cities in India is accelerating. An escalating level of air pollution pushed the government to impose BS VI fuels in the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi in April 2018.
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India is continuously building up its refining capacity to meet the rising domestic demand and maintain its position as Asia’s refining hub.
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To this end, the GoI prepared a roadmap for India’s oil sector to meet projected oil demand in 2040. The roadmap is based on a package of measures: first, to improve domestic production of gasoline and diesel by increasing existing brownfield refining capacity by 125 Mt per year, and build new greenfield refineries at Barmer (9 Mt per year) and on the west coast (60 Mt per year).
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Based on this plan, India’s total refining capacity could reach 401 Mt per year by 2025, and 443 Mt per year by 2030 (554 Mt per year if including 25% export capacity addition).
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The government anticipates that if the plan is realised, the built capacity would be sufficient to meet India’s domestic demand up to 2035.
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Moreover, as India wants to remain Asia’srefining hub, the government plans to further build up its refining capacity (including 25% capacity for export) up to 667 Mt per year by 2040.
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Despite being a net importer of crude oil, India is a net exporter of refined oil products thanks to its large refining capacity.
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India produces significantly more diesel and gasoline than needed for domestic consumption, which contributes to its exports of oil products .
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Most of the exported oil products in 2018 (1 306 kb/d) were road transport fuels: 43% diesel and 23% gasoline. The top five countries that imported India’s petroleum products were the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, the Netherlands, China and Turkey.
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However, India is still import-dependent on certain petroleum products.
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In 2018 India imported 800 kb/d of oil products, primarily petroleum coke (part of other products below) and LPG. India stands as world's second-largest importer of LPG after China.
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The country's LPG imports have markedly increased over the last five years, surpassing the import volumes of Japan.
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According to state-owned IOCL, 50% of India’s LPG demand will be met by imports until 2040 (IOCL, 2018).
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The increased use of LPG as a cleaner cooking fuel, replacing firewood and kerosene, is expected to turn India into the world’s largest LPG importer by 2040 (IEA, 2018).
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India also imports naphtha, for techno-commercial reasons rather than due to a domestic demand–supply gap.
Net import (left) net export (right).
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The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) regulates the entire value chain of the oil sector, including exploration and production, refining, distribution and marketing, import and export, and conservation of petroleum products.
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Under the MoPNG, the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) regulates the upstream side of the oil sector, as well as coalbed methane projects.
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The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) was created in 2006 to protect the interests of consumers and entities engaged in the sector and to promote competitive markets.
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PNGRB is also mandated to regulate the refining, processing, storage, transport, distribution, marketing and sale of petroleum, petroleum products and natural gas, excluding production of crude oil and natural gas, so as to ensure uninterrupted and adequate supply in all parts of the country.
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The PNGRB Act (2006) provides for the promotion of competition in the oil and gas sectors by ensuring the non-discriminatory open access of oil and gas pipelineinfrastructure on a common carrier/contract carrier principle at regulated tariffs determined by PNGRB under its notified regulatory framework.
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In India, two state-owned companies dominate oil production and refining activities.
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About 2/3rd of crude oil production in India is done by the ONGC.
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As of 2018 there were 12 major crude oil ports in India, with a total capacity of around 5.5 mb/d.
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The major crude oil ports are in Vadinar (1.3 mb/d), Jamnagar (1.2 mb/d) and Mumbai (865 kb/d), all located on the west coast. There are also about 12 ports handling finished products around the coast of India.
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Around 227 Mt (4.6 mb/d) of petroleum products were handled through these ports in 2017 and their share of total traffic at the ports was 33%.
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India’s crude oil pipelines have an estimated combined capacity of 159 Mt per year (3.2 mb/d). As of March 2018 India had 10 406 kilometres (km) of crude oil pipelines, including 488 km of offshore pipeline.
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IOCL owns the three longest crude oil pipelines, of which two – Mathura and Panipat – serve refineries close to Delhi from the western coast.
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India also has an extensive oil product pipeline network with a total length of 16 612 km, including 2 847 km of LPG pipeline.
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They are owned by seven different companies, although IOCL controls the majority, and most of the pipelines are small in capacity, the largest being 7.95 Mt per year (162 kb/d).
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India has six LPG pipelines with an estimated capacity of around 7.77 Mt per year(158 kb/d).
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To meet the rising LPG demand, India plans to develop more infrastructure for LPG distribution. IOCL is laying an LPG pipeline from the west coast in Gujarat to Gorakhpur in eastern Uttar Pradesh. This pipeline, with an estimated capacity of 3.75 Mtper year (76 kb/d) could become the longest LPG pipeline in the world. IOCL is also building additional import capacity at Paradeep (east), Kochi (south) and Kandla (west) to meet the increasing requirement for LPG imports.
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India's strategic crude oil storages are currently located at Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), Mangaluru (Karnataka), and padur (Karnataka).
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As of March 2018, under Phase I of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves programme, India’s total storage capacity of crude oil and oil products was around 38 Mt (281 million barrels [mb]), including 5.3 Mt (39 mb) of strategic reserve capacity.
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These strategic reserves are estimated to hold approximately 9.2 days of India’s crude requirement according to the consumption pattern of 2018/19.
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The GoI gave in-principle approval in 2018 for Phase II of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves programme, which has a capacity of 6.5 Mt or almost 50 mb.
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Storage sites are situated in 20 locations throughout the country, close to major refineries or terminals connected to pipelines. IOCL has a vast crude oil tank farm of 18 tanks with a total capacity of 1 Mt at Vadinar, on the western coast.
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There are also crude oil storage tank farms at Mundra (0.5 Mt), Viramgam in Gujarat (0.3 Mt) and at Chaksu in Rajasthan (0.2 Mt).
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The total volume of stocks from the publicly owned refineries, which have a throughput capacity of around 3 mb/d, are reported to JODI as being 92 mb (except private refineries Reliance SEZ and Nayara).
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This implies that the days of cover provided by publicly owned refineries stood at around 30 days on average.
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India’s natural gas consumption is small but increasing.
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Most gas is used in the industrial sector and in power generation.
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Residential gas consumption is small, but India is expanding its gas distribution networks rapidly, an area where major growth is expected.
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Some states and cities also promote gas vehicles to reduce emissions from the transport sector.
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Domestic production covers just over half of India’s gas supply.
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The rest is imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has increased rapidly in recent years, thanks to the decline in global gas prices.
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Investment in new LNG terminals is on a rapid rise.
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In 2014 India linked its domestic gas price to a basket of international LNG prices.
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Since domestic gas production has developed below expectations, gas use for power generation struggles to compete with cheap coal and renewables under the current contracted import prices.
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To stimulate more domestic production of oil and gas, the Government of India (GoI) has introduced a Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP), which brought freedom of price setting and marketing for new gas production.
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India aims to increase the share of natural gas to 15% of the energy mix by 2030 (PNGRB, 2013), which suggests a doubling of current demand and infrastructure needs, as part of a gas trading hub.
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This will require the availability of transport capacity across India, which will enable all market players to access LNG supplies.
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Under the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) Act 2006, gas pipelines were declared common carriers/contract, and non-discriminatory third-party access is mandatory.
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In practice, however, several companies maintain gas supply and transport activities, generating conflicts of interest that prevent a fully functioning third-party access regime.
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The future outlook for natural gas in India depends on the growth in demand, the evolution of the pricing regime, and the pace of gas infrastructure expansion.
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International experience (notably in the European Union) suggests that the key prerequisites to a fully functioning gas market are unbundling and domestic gas hub pricing that reflects local gas supply/demand fundamentals.
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As of 1 April 2018 India has recoverable conventional natural gas reserves of 1 340 bcm, of which 61% are located offshore.
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Reserves held under the production-sharing contracts(PSC) regime account for 49% of total, whereas the two incumbent public service undertakings (PSUs), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Limited (OIL), have shares of 42% and 9%, respectively (MoPNG, 2018a).
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As for unconventional resources, recoverable coal bed methane reserves are estimated at 108 bcm.
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Different estimates for shale gas resources range from 45 to 2 100 thousand cubic feet (or 1.3 to 59 thousand cubic metres), without information on recoverable reserves (MoPNG, 2018b).
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Natural gas production has remained stable at around 30 bcm per year since 2013, following a spike in 2010-12 linked to the commissioning of new fields (D1-D3 and MA)and a steep decline in production at the Krishna Godavari Dhirubhai 6 (KG-D6) offshore field due to water and sand ingress in the reservoir (Figure 11.5), which led to the permanent shutdown of the MA Field.
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The majority of natural gas exploration and production activities are carried out by two PSUs – ONGC and OIL.
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Private and foreign players entered Indian exploration and production in the late 1990s under the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) framework.
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In 2017/18 the two PSUs accounted respectively for 71% and 9% of total natural gas production, the remaining 20% being produced under the PSC regime.
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Over two-thirds (67%) of natural gas production came from offshore fields, and in particular from the Mumbai Basin where ONGC-operated Bassein and Mumbai High fields accounted for 33% and 16% of total production, respectively.
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The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) projects a doubling of production by 2021/22 and significant changes in the production mix, as private producers under the PSC regime are expected to increase their output by five times.
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The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) oversees the oil and gas industry, from exploration and production to distribution, marketing and pricing.
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It has authority over state-owned oil and gas companies (PSUs).
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The Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) was established in 1993 under the administrative control of MoPNG and has several responsibilities, including the implementation of the NELP, HELP and Discovered Small Field Policy, as well as matters concerning PSCs and revenue-sharing contracts for discovered fields and exploration blocks.
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DGH is also engaged in opening up unexplored areas for future exploration and development of non-conventional hydrocarbon energy sources, for instance coal bed methane.
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The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) was constituted in 2006 to protect the interests of consumers, to promote competitive markets and to regulate the refining, processing, storage, transport, distribution, marketing and sale of petroleum, petroleum products and natural gas (excluding production of crude oil and natural gas.
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There have been some efforts to establish a pipeline from Iran via Pakistan to India (IPI Pipeline), but it was put on hold in 2008 following sanctions against Iran by the United States.
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Since then, a rival pipeline from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and Pakistan to India (TAPI Pipeline) has been studied.
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While both pipelines have geopolitical concerns for India as they cross Afghanistan and/or Pakistan, the latter has seen some progress.
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The ground-breaking ceremony of the 1 800 km long TAPI Pipeline took place in December 2015. The pipeline consortium – the TAPI Pipeline Company – was set up in 2014 with shareholdings by Turkmenistan (85%), India (5%), Pakistan (5%) and Afghanistan (5%).
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The project is stated to be completed within seven years, with commercial operations targeted to begin in 2022 (PIB, 2016) and is due to supply some 14 bcm per year for 30 years (PIB 2014).
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Another international pipeline is the Middle East to India Deepwater Gas Pipeline (MEIDP), being proposed by the South Asia Gas Enterprise (SAGE), from Oman to India with a length of 1 200 km and a maximum depth of 3 500 metres below sea level.
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However, as of 2015 this pipeline is no longer under the consideration by the GoI (PIB, 2015). SAGE has also presented the possibility of this undersea pipeline being used to import gas from Iran into India.
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Figure shows the various underground geographical features for recovery of conventional and unconventional gases.
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Conventional gas can occur by itself or in association with oil.
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These are shown on the left and right side of the figure, respectively.
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Coal bed methane (CBM), which is extracted from coal beds, is also an unconventional gas and, in terms of depth, occurs much closer to the land surface than other similar gases.
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However, shale rock is sometimes found 3,000 metres below the surface.
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Therefore, after deep vertical drilling, there are techniques to drill horizontally for considerable distances in various directions to extract the gas-rich shale.
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A mixture of water, chemicals, and sand is then injected into the well at very high pressures (8,000 psi) to create a number of fissures in the rock to release the gas.
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The process of using water for breaking up the rock is known as “hydro-fracturing” or “fracking”.
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The chemicals help in water and gas flow and tiny particles of sand enter the fissures to keep them open and allow the gas to flow to the surface.
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This injection has to be done several times over the life of the well.
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The number of wells to be drilled for shale gas far exceeds the number of wells required in the case of conventional gas and the land area required is a minimum of 80 to 160 acres.