Context: Melting of the ice in the Arctic region has as much impact on the geopolitics as it has on the environment. 
Melting of Arctic ice and its impact on climate

• Arctic region is warming up twice as fast as the global average.
• The ice cap is shrinking fast — since 1980, the volume of Arctic sea ice has declined by as much as 75 per cent.
• The loss of ice and the warming waters will affect sea levels, salinity levels, and current and precipitation patterns.
• The Tundra is returning to swamp, the permafrost is thawing, sudden storms are ravaging coastlines and wildfires are devastating interior Canada and Russia.
• The rich biodiversity of the Arctic region is under serious threat.
• These changes are making the survival of Arctic marine life, plants and birds difficult while encouraging species from lower latitudes to move north.
• The Arctic is also home to about 40 different indigenous groups, whose culture, economy and way of life is in danger of being swept away.

Opportunities in melting of the Arctic

• The Northern Sea Route (NSR) which connect the North Atlantic to the North Pacific through a short polar arc was once not open for navigation.
• The melting ice has now made it a reality and a trickle of commercial cargo vessels has been going through every summer since the last decade.
• The opening of the Arctic presents huge commercial and economic opportunities, particularly in shipping, energy, fisheries and mineral resources.
• Oil and natural gas deposits, estimated to be 22 per cent of the world’s unexplored resources, mostly in the Arctic ocean, will be open to access along with mineral deposits.

Challenges in exploiting opportunities

• Navigation conditions are dangerous and restricted to the summer.
• There is a lack of deep-water ports, a need for ice-breakers, shortage of workers trained for polar conditions, and high insurance costs.
• Mining and deep-sea drilling carry massive costs and environmental risks.
• Unlike Antarctica, the Arctic is not a global common and there is no overarching treaty that governs it, only the UN Convention of Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
• Large parts of it are under the sovereignty of the five littoral states — Russia, Canada, Norway, Denmark (Greenland) and the US — and exploitation of the new resources is well within their rights.

Geopolitics of the Arctic

• Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark have put in overlapping claims for extended continental shelves.
• The US, not a party to UNCLOS, is unable to put in a formal claim but is under pressure to strengthen its Arctic presence.
• For the present, Russia is the dominant power, with the longest Arctic coastline, half the Arctic population, and a full-fledged strategic policy.
• Russia anticipates huge dividends from commercial traffic including through the use of its ports, pilots and ice-breakers.
• China, playing for economic advantage, has moved in fast, projecting the Polar Silk Road as an extension of the BRI, and has invested heavily in ports, energy, undersea infrastructure and mining projects.

What are the concerns for India

• India’s extensive coastline makes it vulnerable to the impact of Arctic warming on ocean currents, weather patterns, fisheries and most importantly, our monsoon.
• Scientific research in Arctic developments, in which India has a good record, will contribute to our understanding of climatic changes in the Third Pole — the Himalayas.
• The strategic implications of an active China in the Arctic and its growing economic and strategic relationship with Russia are self-evident and need close monitoring.

Suggestion

• India has observer status in the Arctic Council, which is the predominant inter-governmental forum for cooperation on the environmental and development (though not the security) aspects of the Arctic.
• India should leverage its present in Arctic Council for a strategic policy that encompassed economic, environmental, scientific and political aspects.

Road Ahead

• India’s interests in these developments in the region though distant are not peripheral. India must strive to protect its interest and strive for the strategic policy for the region.