Context: The latest data from the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) provides evidence of an uptake in the use of modern contraceptives in rural and urban areas, an improvement in family planning demands being met, and a decline in the average number of children borne by a woman.

• It proves that the country’s population is stabilising.
• The data is the response to myth and misconception around the two-child norm. 
• Fears over a “population explosion” and calls for a “two-child policy” are misguided.
• In 2020, the PM spoke about a likely decision on revising the age of marriage for women, which many stakeholders view as an indirect attempt at controlling the population size.

Key inferences from the data

• The first part of the NFHS-5 report records data for 17 States and five Union Territories. 
• The Total Fertility Rate (number of children born per woman) has decreased across 14 out of 17 States and is either at 2.1 children per woman or less.
• This also implies that most States have attained replacement level fertility. 
• This is the average number of children born per woman at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.
• Increase in modern methods of contraception: During NFHS-3 and NFHS-4, conducted between 2005 and 2016, there was a decline in the use of modern methods of contraception (oral pills, condoms, intra-uterine device) across 12 of 22 States and UTs.
• But in NFHS-5 as many as 11 out of 12 States have witnessed an increase in their use.
• Contraceptive prevalence rate: The number of districts with a modern contraceptives prevalence rate of over 60% has also increased significantly between the survey rounds (from 37 in 2015-16 to 111 in 2019-20). 
• The indicator to gauge the demand met for contraception has also increased. The top performers here are Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana.
• There is a rise in child marriages recorded by the Survey and policy makers should pay attention to this area to curb early pregnancies.

Future projections

• As per World Population Prospects projections of the United Nations in 2019 India’s population will peak by 2050, followed by steeper decline in population. 
• Total fertility rate will reach 1.3 in 2100. 
• These projections emphasize advancement in female education attainment and access to contraceptives as key contributors to the decline in fertility and slow population growth.

Concerns with two-child policy

• Absence of evidence: There is no evidence on the effectiveness of a two-child policy, which would particularly be detrimental for vulnerable population groups.
• India continues to be a society with a strong son-preference, where ultimately the families govern the number of children a woman will bear. 
• A coercive population policy will result in higher number of sex-selective abortions, abandonment of women and eventually a skewed sex ratio.
• Violates women's rights: Human rights activists argue that the laws discriminate against women right from birth by encouraging the abortion or infanticide of females. 
• The two-child policies also create incentives for men to divorce their wives and abandon their families if they want to run for political office.
• Violation of international norms: India became a signatory to the International Conference on Population and Development Declaration in 1994.
• This means India made a commitment to international community that it will honour the individual right of the couples to decide freely the number of children they want to have and also decide spacing between the births of their kids.

Significance: Both high TFR and TFR below-replacement level can be causes of worry for policy makers and planners. 

• According to the World Bank, high fertility levels pose health risks for children and their mothers. 
• Education and development lead to lower fertility levels, but when a population does not reproduce enough to be able to replace one generation of humans with the next, the aged population grows and the labour force shrinks. 
• India is headed in the right direction towards reaching the replacement level of fertility.
• We need to invest heavily in human capital, health and education for a healthy and productive population that can add to national and global accomplishments of the country. 

Road Ahead

• National Population Policy, 2000: If a women’s needs for family planning and sexual and reproductive healthcare are met, along with other basic health and education needs, then population stabilisation will be achieved naturally, not as a matter of control or coercion. 
• This approach is also well-reflected in the National Population Policy, 2000.
• The National Population Policy came in 2000 with long-term objective of stabilizing population by 2045.
• It is family health programmes that are needed to uphold the right and dignity of individuals.
• Formulating appropriate family planning information and communication, improving primary care facilities, and focusing on pockets of unmet need for contraceptives will have the desired impact on strengthening women’s health and ensuring healthy children, lowering maternal, infant and child mortality.
• Women’s education, income and workforce participation are critical for ensuring that girls stay in school longer, become part of economically productive workforce, delay their age of marriage, have fewer and healthier children and contribute to the household and national economy.

Two Child Policy in India

• India does not have a national child policy.
• Local laws: Many local laws in India apply penalties for having more than two children.
• Like Assam, many other Indian states have also imposed a two-child policy, which deprives citizens with more than two children of basic rights such as running in political elections, accessing bank loans and receiving free rations, among others.
• An MP recently introduced the Population Regulation Bill, suggested that people with more than two children should be disqualified from being able to run in elections. The bill has not yet been cleared for consideration.