Context: Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani discussed the evolving security situation in the region and other areas of mutual and bilateral interest. During a phone call, the two also exchange Eid-ul-Adha greetings. President Ghani thanked Prime Minister Modi for timely supply of food and medical assistance to meet Afghan requirements. PM Modi reiterated India's commitment to the people of Afghanistan in their quest for a peaceful, prosperous and inclusive Afghanistan. The phone call happened as reports said Afghan forces retook a prison in the country's east, a day after the Islamic State terrorist group attacked the facility in which at least 29 people were killed. 
Background

• In Feb 2020, he US and Taliban have negotiated a peace deal to bring an end to a near twenty years of war in Afghanistan. 
• However, within 24 hours of the much-hyped deal, violence and major disagreements about it have erupted in Afghanistan.
• The terms of the deal, the manner in which it was negotiated, indicate that the deal was more about providing an honourable exit route for the US' military campaign in Afghanistan rather than about ending the violence in the country.

Given the war fatigue and the geopolitical stakes in Afghanistan, most of the key players are lending legitimacy to the Taliban.

• US: US president wants to fulfil his electoral promise of withdrawing the US military from the conflict zone.
• Russia: Russia, just like Syria, sees Afghanistan as another theatre to outplay the US.
• Pakistan: Pakistan military may consider the Taliban as a strategic asset once it returns to power, which can be used against India to fuel terrorism.
• China: Pakistan's closeness with the Taliban and given the strong strategic relationship between Pakistan and China, these may be used by China to extend the influence of its Belt and Road initiative over Afghanistan.

India's Approach

• India is the state that seems to be on the losing end in Afghanistan. The reason for this lies in India's approach in dealing with the Taliban starting from supporting the Northern Alliance (the force that fought against the Taliban) in 1996 and now supporting Ashraf Ghani Government in Afghanistan.
• The Taliban regime was anti-India because India had militarily supported the Northern Alliance that kept up the military pressure against the Taliban.
• India insisted with a moralistic approach towards Taliban i.e India will not engage in any dialogue with any terrorist group.
• Further, India put all its eggs in the democratically elected government, even on the eve of the signing of the peace deal in Doha.
• This approach has been called by many foreign policy experts as not a smart diplomatic strategy and called for a more dynamic policy.

An interlinked set of mitigation strategies could help India protect its interests:

• Broader Diplomatic Engagement: India should consider appointing a special envoy dedicated to Afghan reconciliation. The envoy can ensure that Indian views are expressed at every meeting, broaden engagement with the Afghan government and other political actors, and reach out to certain Taliban representatives.
• Continued Training and Investments: India should provide more military training to Afghan security forces and invest in longer-term capacity-building programs. It should actively support and invest in the National Directorate of Security (for example, by providing training and sharing intelligence). Finally, given the continued levels of violence and the impact of the coronavirus on the Afghan economy, India should expand its development assistance.
• Working With and Through Others: India should look to broaden its engagements with Iran and Russia, explore opportunities for cooperation (as limited as they might be) with China, and find common ground with the United States on Afghanistan’s future. This does not mean forcing competing interests to align; it means investing in a wider diplomatic initiative with the view to carve out areas of convergence.

Road Ahead

• In the current situation, it is essential for India to maintain its strong links with the Afghan government, build and support its traditional Afghan allies and open lines of communication with the Taliban.
• India had strictly refused to put boots on the ground previously and would maintain the status quo. Instead India has invested heavily in training security forces and supplying with necessary equipment.
• The key concern and challenge is the protection of the investment that India has made in Afghanistan.