Context: The COVID-19 pandemic began as a global health crisis. As it spread rapidly across nations, country after country responded with a lockdown, triggering a global economic crisis. Certain geopolitical trendlines were already discernible but the COVID-19 shock therapy has brought these into sharper focus, defining the contours of the emerging global (dis)order.
1) Ascent of Asia

• Economic aspect: Until the 18th century, Asia accounted for half the global GDP. The Industrial Revolution accompanied by European naval expansion and colonialism contributed to the rise of the West.
• The 2008 global financial crisis and the resilience of the Asian economies led to the rise of Asia.
• Current economic forecasts indicate that out of the G-20 countries, only China and India are likely to register economic growth during 2020 despite the global lockdown measures.
• Response to the pandemic: Asian countries have demonstrated greater agility and responsiveness in tackling the pandemic and more effective state capacity compared to the United States and Europe. Consequently, Asian economies will recover faster than those in the West.

(2) Retreat of US

• Lack of resources: Due to its interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• America Alone Policy: During the current crisis, the U.S.’s efforts are at cornering supplies of scarce medical equipment and medicines and acquiring biotech companies engaged in research and development in allied states.
• Mismanagement in handling crisis at home: Its pandemic handling has not been successful at home and showed that countries are losing trust in the U.S.’s leadership.

(3) Internal Challenges of Europe

• Expansion of membership to EU: There is difference in threat perception between the old Europe and new Europe making it difficult to reach agreement on political matters e:g relations with Russia and China.
• Rise of Euroscepticism: The rising populism has permitted some EU members to welcome the virtues of “illiberal democracy”. It has worsened with the Brexit.
• North-South divide within the Eurozone: When austerity measures were imposed on Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal by the ECB, the strains came up. The ECB chief’s statement that “ECB is not here to close spreads” undermined solidarity as the Italians are battling with the pandemic and growing borrowing costs.
• Export Control: The medical equipments were denied to Italy by its EU members who introduced export controls leading to China airlifting medical teams and critical supplies.
• Failure of concept of Shared Sovereignty: The Schengen visa or free-border movement became the victim to the pandemic. A Schengen visa is a short-stay visa that allows a person to travel to any members of the Schengen Area, per stays up to 90 days for tourism or business purposes. It enables its holder to enter, freely travel within, and leave the Schengen zone from any of the Schengen member countries.

(4) Rising China

• Assertive China: While China’s growing economic role has been visible since it joined the WTO, its more assertive stand has taken shape under President Xi Jinping’s leadership with the call that a rejuvenated China is now ready to assume global responsibilities.
• Concerns regarding Chinese Rise: Chinese assertiveness has raised concerns in its neighborhood and the U.S. which feels betrayed because it assisted China in the hope that an economically integrated China would become politically open. The pandemic has seen increasing rhetoric on both sides.
• Belt and Road Initiative: It seeks to connect China to the Eurasia and Africa through both maritime and land routes by investing trillions of dollars in infrastructure building as a kind of pre-emptive move against any U.S. attempts at containment.

(5) Weakening of International Bodies

• Global Concerns: The COVID-19 shows the failure of international and multilateral bodies in dealing them. The WHO which was expected to lead global efforts against the health crisis became a victim of politics.
• Subject to Big Power Politics: During the Cold War, U.S.-Soviet rivalry blocked the UNSC on many sensitive issues and now with major power rivalry returning, they are becoming ineffective again.
• Losing Autonomy: Agencies such as WHO have lost autonomy over time as their regular budgets have reduced forcing them to increasingly rely on voluntary contributions sourced largely from western countries and foundations.

(6) The energy Politics

• The growing interest in renewables and green technologies on account of climate change concerns and the U.S. emerging as a major energy producer have fundamentally altered the energy markets.
• The looming economic recession and depressed oil prices will exacerbate internal tensions in West Asian countries, which are solely dependent on oil revenues.
• Long-standing rivalries in the region may now create political instability in countries where regime structures are fragile.

(7) Greater unpredictability

• A vaccine for the novel coronavirus, possibly by end-2020, will help deal with the global health crisis but these unfolding trends have now been aggravated by the more pernicious(harmful) panic virus
• Rising nationalism and protectionist responses will prolong the economic recession into a depression, sharpening inequalities and polarisations. This will lead to greater unpredictability and turbulent times in international relations.