• The Victoria Falls are one of southern Africa’s biggest tourist attractions.
• Now, a worst drought has reduced its flow to a trickle triggering fears that climate change might destroy a major tourist attraction such as this.

What is happening?

• The Victoria Falls located in Zambia and Zimbabwe, is of 1.7 km width and roughly 108 m height.
• The falls fed by the Zambezi River, define the boundary between Zambia and Zimbabwe in southern Africa.
• The falls are also referred to as “The Smoke that Thunders” and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
• Its flow has been reduced to a trickle due to the severe droughts in the southern African region since October 2018.
• One of the worst droughts of the century has reduced the fall’s flow to a trickle triggering fears that climate change might destroy it.

What are the possible reasons for the falls’ significant dry up?

• Typically, the months of November and December are the driest times for the region.
• In November 2019, the average flow over the falls was down by 50%
• In the last two months, over 200 elephants have died in Zimbabwe’s conservation zones due to the severe drought conditions.
• Now, many elephants and lions will be relocated by the country’s wildlife agency to save them from the drought.
• UN report - Because of the drought conditions in Zimbabwe, the majority of the population was food insecure.
• IPCC report - The southern African region is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with temperatures rising faster at over 2o Celsius as compared to global warming at 1.5o C.
• The report also projects a precipitation decrease of about 10-20%, coupled with longer dry spells over Namibia, Botswana, northern Zimbabwe and southern Zambia.
• Furthermore, it adds that the projected reductions in stream flow of 5-10% in the Zambezi River basin have been associated with increased evaporation and transpiration rates.
• These are the result of a rise in temperature with issues for hydroelectric power across the region of southern Africa.
• While the droughts are affecting both people and wildlife in Zimbabwe, the effects of the drought are being felt on both sides of the border of Victoria Falls.
• Even so, some climate scientists are advising caution in categorically putting the blame on climate change.

Were there any previous instances of slow flow?

• According to the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), at the Victoria Falls
  1. The maximum flow was recorded during the construction of the Kariba Dam in 1958, at 10,000 cubic metres per second (cumecs)
  2. The lowest flow was during the 1995-1996 season, when the annual mean flow was at 390 cumecs.
• The long term mean annual flow at Victoria Falls is over 1,100 cumecs.
• Recent ZRA data - The flows have increased from 207 cumecs on 26th November to 227 cumecs on 2nd December, 2019.
• Last year on the same date the flow was at 220 cumecs.

What is the relationship between Victoria Falls and Tourism?

• Being one of the biggest tourist attractions in southern Africa, tourism at Victoria Falls brings in revenue for both Zambia and Zimbabwe.
• The falls can be accessed through both countries.
• As 75% of the falls are visible from Zimbabwe, only 25% of the falls are visible from Zambia, more tourists access it through Zimbabwe.
• Zimbabwe - According to the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority, 62% of those who visited national parks, visited the rainforest (Victoria Falls) and the Zambezi National Park.
• While other national parks in the country are mostly visited by domestic tourists, over 71% of the arrivals at Victoria Falls were foreigners.
• The revenue from tourism increased from $917 million to $1.386 billion, out of which $1.051 billion came from foreign arrivals.
• Significantly, the opening of the Victoria Falls International Terminal in 2015, improved connectivity to the area.
• Zambia - The tourist arrivals at the Zambian side of the falls recorded a drop between 2014-15, according to Zambia’s Tourism and Art Ministry.
• The international tourist arrivals fell by over 34.7%.