The government’s Sample Registration System in 22 states shows that TFR for India declined to 2.2 in 2017 after being stable at 2.3 between 2013 and 2016. Further, the country’s annual population growth rate fell from 2.5% in 1971-81—a time when ‘population explosion’ was bandied around commonly, and when India infamously experimented with forced sterilisation—to 1.3% in 2011-16.

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Population control measures are no longer needed:

• The TFR in the country is down from 5.52 in 1971.
• The TFR is expected to reach 1.8 in 2021 – similar to the current rate in France – and stabilise at 1.7, the stage where China, which is heading for a population decline, is now.
• As per the Sample Registration System (SRS) that provides the most dynamic data on fertility rates, even the states that have a higher fertility rate—Bihar (3.2), Uttar Pradesh (3), Madhya Pradesh (2.7), Rajasthan (2.6), Jharkhand (2.5), Chhattisgarh (2.4) and Assam (2.3)—than the national TFR have shown precipitous decline in fertility rates.
• 13 of the 22 major states TFR is below 2.1, meaning that these states, including those in the south, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal and Maharashtra are already quite advanced in their demographic transition, mirroring trends in countries with much higher levels of income.
• Just a decade ago, for instance, Bihar had a TFR of 4 and UP of 4.1 while MP, Jharkhand and Rajasthan had a TFR of 3.5 each.
• States already below replacement level fertility will see a further decline to decline to 1.5-1.6. The survey estimates that the large poorer states of central India, like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh are likely to reach TFR levels below 1.8 between 2021 and 2031.
• Some states like Tamil Nadu could witness population declines after 2031 unless there is migration from other states.
• With such trends likely to continue, as demographers predict, the population burden on India’s resources will only ease in the coming decades.
• Given the improving levels of education, especially amongst women, and access to contraception, late marriage, financial independence of women, etc, fertility rates are coming down sharply.
• Local culture also plays a strong factor.
• As educational attainment levels go up, and more women push marriage for later, TFR will come down further, even child-bearing shifts to the older age-brackets.
• The solution to achieving population stability rests on increasing access for women to education and jobs.

Population control measures are necessary because:

• Population experts have said that while India’s large population presents challenges in providing food, housing, jobs and other essentials, the country has entered a demographic stage when a plateauing of population and a subsequent decline in numbers is just decades away.
• India currently adds around 10 million people annually to the working age population; this increase is likely to decline to 4.2 million in 2031-41.
• It is indeed a fact that population of India is growing and will continue to grow for the next couple of decades. This is because, as compared to the past, there are a higher proportion of people in the marriageable age group who will produce children, and people are now living longer.
• In India, the global demand for water in 2050 is projected to be more than 50 per cent of what it was in 2000.
• The demand for food will double in the year 2050 and even if India manages to feed its expanding population, its growth may not be ecologically sustainable.
• Women empowerment as people will not favour for sons because of cap of 2 child policy
• Though China’s one-child policy has been criticized as against human dignity and rights, it has improved and controlled the nation’s population by a possible 400 million people as per the report of East India Forum.
• If Population control won’t happen, there will be no resources left, and the growing population’s demand will increase to the next level, resulting in increasing death rates increasing in the country.

Conclusion:

As per National Family Health Survey data, the country-level TFR in India is 2.23, which is not hugely above the desired level of 2.1. Twenty states/UTs have achieved the replacement-level TFR, another five have got it below 2.2, with the remaining 11 states (including Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh) having a higher rate. Thus, the need of the hour is better education and awareness rather than an iron hand policy to control the population. Government should improve the implementation of poverty alleviation measures which can also help control population.