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Introduction:
The world today is undergoing a fundamental transformation and there are several facets to the emerging uncertainty.
Today, the momentum in manufacturing activity has weakened to levels unseen since the global financial crises. Investor and business confidence even in emerging markets is at a low ebb.
Low productivity growth and ageing demographics in advanced economies have further compounded the problem. Most countries appear to be financially vulnerable.
Present world shows Multi-polarity in various facets:
Traditional and non-traditional security threats (economic and military competition, climate change, piracy, radical ideology, cyber threats, drug and human trafficking, and energy and food security) have grown in magnitude.
Power, whether economic, political or military, is fractured.
Trade and technology are at the heart of a new round of competition and contestation.
Nationalism and regionalism are on the rise. There is less multilateralism but greater multi-polarity. Hedging and multi-alignment are the order of the day.
21st century is the Indo-Pacific region century:
Global engines of economic growth over the past three decades have shifted to Asia, first to the Asia-Pacific and now, more broadly, to the Indo-Pacific region that includes South Asia.
The continent, home to over half the global population, has emerged as the new fulcrum for geo-economic and geo-strategic realignments.
High economic growth rates across the region are accompanied by some of the highest military expenditures in the world.
In the face of automation, countries are undertaking structural reforms and emphasising skills-training to raise productivity. Development and adoption of green technology is also a priority.
Even Saudi Arabia, the quintessentially hydrocarbon-dependent economy, has endeavoured to diversify its economy through the Saudi Vision 2030 master-plan.
Obstacles of Exports Ahead:
Shaping trade, economy for two Asian giants:
Trade Balance with China:
Bilateral trade for India and China today is approximately $95 billion.
India faces a huge and rising trade imbalance. The decision at the Mamallapuram Summit, to set up a new mechanism to discuss the trade imbalance, is aimed at addressing this issue.
As members of several multilateral institutions, India and China are in a unique position to give shape to their economic destinies.
There are suggestions that the era of the World Trade Organisation (WTO)-anchored, Most Favoured Nation (MFN)-based regime is drawing to a close and that the future lies in a web of free trade agreements.
However, there is still scope for India and China to work together to strengthen the WTO.
Chinese Investments in India:
Since 2015, there has been a spurt in Chinese FDI in India (at around $8 billion).
There is great scope for China to participate in flagship initiatives such as the ‘Smart Cities Mission’ and ‘Skill India’ programmes.
As the world’s second-largest economy, China can and must play a constructive role globally and within Asia to help the world return to higher growth rates.
Therefore, for India the need of the hour is “if the world is different, we need to think, talk and engage accordingly. The wheels of change appear to have been set in motion.
There is also a need to focus on establishing partnerships, networks and an innovation system that enhance a country’s ability to share knowledge and information.
Conclusion:
Countries need to respond with policies, programmes, institutions and partnerships that maximize their economic opportunities while sustaining social fabric.
Governments must re-evaluate not only where to spend their S&T resources but also how to spend them more effectively.
It must be remembered that Asia’s rise is predicated on peace and stability. It is a sad fact that a stable regional security architecture has yet to emerge organically in Asia.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had stated at the Raisina Dialogue in 2017: that there is enough room for all Asian countries to prosper together, and that the Asia of rivalry will hold us all back. It is the Asia of cooperation that will shape this century.
By: Priyank Kishore ProfileResourcesReport error
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