A cyclone is a large scale air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure. Cyclones are characterized by inward spiralling winds that rotate about a zone of low pressure. Tropical cyclones are intense low-pressure areas confined to the area lying between 30° N and 30° S latitudes, in the atmosphere around which high velocity winds blow. Horizontally, it extends up to 500-1,000 km and vertically from surface to 12-14 km.

Body:

Arabian Sea is comparatively less prone to cyclonic storms than Bay of Bengal:

• Temperature: BOB is hotter than Arabian sea. Hot water temperature is the basic criteria for the development & intensification of cyclones.
• Salinity: Arabian sea has higher salinity than BOB. It’s easier to heat & simultaneously evaporate water having lower salinity.
• Location: The typhoons originating in the Pacific Ocean too influences the cyclones in BOB, not the case in Arabian Sea.
• Movement: According to IMD cyclones originating in Arabian Sea are believed to move northwest. So they actually move away from Indian mainland.
• The Bay receives higher rainfall and constant inflow of fresh water from the Ganga and Brahmaputra rivers. This means that the Bay’s surface water keeps getting refreshed, making it impossible for the warm water to mix with the cooler water below, making it ideal for a depression.

Cyclones in Arabian Sea:

• In the usual course, there was an occurrence of one extremely severe cyclone in every four-five years in the Arabian.
• The cyclone pattern and occurrence has shown a change and the climatological data from the last few years suggest that the Arabian Sea (west coast) also started receiving tropical cyclones of high intensity in a small time interval.
• For instance, in 15 years (1998 to 2013), five extremely severe cyclones originated in the Sea.
• In October 2014, the west coast of India saw an extremely severe cyclonic storm, ‘Nilofar’ (Category 4).
• Winds blowing at speeds greater than 125 miles per hour forced authorities to evacuate nearly 30,000 people residing along the coastline.
• In 2015, within one week, the Arabian Sea experienced two more cyclones, even stronger than Nilofar: Cyclone ‘Chapal’ followed by Cyclone ‘Megh’.

Impact of Climate change on cyclone behaviour in Arabian Sea:

• The studies associated with temperature suggest that the Indian Ocean is warming, particularly the Arabian Sea, which is doing so at the fastest rate.
• Previously, tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea were restricted to Gujarat.
• In the past decade though, Kerala and Karnataka have also become more vulnerable to cyclones. A recent example is ‘Ockhi’.
• The Arabian Sea is quickly responding to climate change signals, heating rapidly and driving more and more cyclones, and excessive rainfall, although, experts still do not understand how much of a performance climate change must work on Ockhi.
• The rise in Arabian Sea surface temperature makes it warmer than other seas all through this period.
• Global warming adds to climate variability and weather changes.
• A sophisticated climate model to compare the conditions in 2015 to conditions in 1860, keeping in mind the carbon footprints. The findings suggest that 64 per cent of the cyclone risk in the Arabian Sea was due to climate change.
• The coastal areas surrounding the Arabian Sea are at specific risk since the geographical location offers cyclones nowhere to go but the land.

Cyclone Management in India:

• India is highly vulnerable to natural disasters especially cyclones, earthquakes, floods, landslides, and drought. Natural disasters cause a loss of 2% of GDP every year in India. According to the Home ministry, 8% of total area in India is prone to cyclones.
• In 2016, National Disaster Management Plan was unveiled to tackle disaster. It provides a framework to deal with prevention, mitigation, response and recovery during a disaster.
• Due to increased awareness and tracking of Cyclone, the death toll has been reduced substantially. For example, Very severe cyclone Hudhud and Phailin claimed lives of around 138 and 45 people respectively, which might have been more. It was reduced due to the early warning and relocation of the population from the cyclone-hit areas.
• But the destruction of infrastructure due to cyclonic hit is not been reduced which leads to increase in poverty due to the economic weakening of the affected population.

Measures to tackle such incidences:

• The National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP), to be implemented with financial assistance from the World Bank, is envisaged to have four major components:
  • Component A: Improvement of early warning dissemination system by strengthening the Last Mile Connectivity (LMC) of cyclone warnings and advisories.
  • Component B: Cyclone risk mitigation investments.
  • Component C: Technical assistance for hazard risk management and capacity-building.
  • Component D: Project management and institutional support.
• These components are highly interdependent and have to be implemented in a coherent manner.
• The NDMA had come up with its National Guidelines of Management of Cyclones in 2008. The basic premise of these guidelines is that the mitigation has to be multi-sectoral.
• Developing Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) frameworks for addressing the sustainability and optimal utilisation of coastal resources as also cyclone impact minimisation plans.
• Ensuring cyclone resistant design standards are incorporated in the rural/ urban housing schemes in coastal areas
• Implementing coastal flood zoning, flood plain development and flood inundation management and regulatory plans.
• Coastal bio-shields spread, preservation and restoration/ regeneration plans.
• There is a need for private sector participation in designing and implementing policies, plans, and standards.
• Need of Disaster Management program to be inclusive including women, civil society, and academia.

Conclusion:

In Indian waters, cyclonic storms are associated with heavy rains, thunderstorms, high tides and intense winds that cause shocking destruction in coastal areas. The increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea can result in a massive loss of lives, livelihood and costal ecology. India should prepare to mitigate and deflect the destruction caused by Cyclones. We need to employ technology, strict following of command structure and most importantly the participation and cooperation of local communities in the affected area