The 11th BRICS Summit was convened in Brasília, Brazil. The 2019 Brazilian Presidency focuses on the theme, ‘BRICS: Economic Growth for an Innovative Future’. The BRICS Summit venues are chosen as per the rotational nature of venues among the five member States.
About BRICS
BRICS brings together five major emerging economies, comprising 43 percent of the world population, having 30 percent of the world GDP and 17 percent share in the world trade.
- The acronym BRIC was first used in 2001 by Goldman Sachs in their Global Economics Paper.
- BRIC started after the meeting of the leaders of Russia, India and China in St. Petersburg on the margins of G8 Outreach Summit in 2006.
- The grouping was formalised during the first meeting of BRIC foreign ministers on the margins of UNGA in New York in 2006. The first BRIC Summit was held in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on June 16, 2009.
- It was agreed to expand BRIC into BRICS with the inclusion of South Africa at the BRIC foreign ministers’ meeting in New York in September 2010.
- The five BRICS countries are also members of G-20.
What are the objective of BRICS?
- Broader commitment to cooperate for strengthening multilateralism, the rule of law and equitable international order.
- BRICS leader’s stress “the centrality of the rules-based, transparent, non-discriminatory, open and inclusive multilateral trading”, based on the World Trade Organisation.
- BRICS managed to push for institutional reform which led to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) quota reform in 2010.
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Major outcomes of BRICS Summit, 2019
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Brasilia Declaration:
- BRICS reaffirmed commitment to helping overcome the significant challenges currently facing multilateralism, as well as upholding the central role of the U.N. in international affairs and respecting international law.
- BRICS criticised protectionism, blaming it for the global slowdown.
- India @ BRICS summit:
- ‘Fit India Movement.’: India called for communication and exchange between BRICS nations to increase in areas of fitness and health
- Disaster resilient infrastructure: India requested BRICS nations and New Development Bank to join coalition for disaster resilient infrastructure.
- India-Brazil:
- Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has accepted Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation to be the chief guest at India's Republic Day celebrations in 2020.
- Brazil granted visa-free travel to Indian citizens.
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India-China:
- President Xi thanked PM for India's substantial participation in the just concluded China Import Export Expo in Shanghai.
- The leaders reviewed preparations for celebrating the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries next year.
- India-Russia
- India and Russia decided to hold 1st Bilateral Regional Forum at the level of Russian Provinces and Indian States next year to dismantle the barriers of trade at regional level.
- The USD 25 billion target of bilateral trade by 2025 has already been achieved. India has been invited for investment in the Arctic region.
- Both countries reviewed the progress made in the field of Infrastructure particularly railways in context of raising the speed of the Nagpur-Secunderabad sector railway line.
- Russia invited Indian PM to visit Russia in May for the Victory Day celebrations.
Significance of BRICS for India
- As the developing countries face an aggressive club of developed countries, raising challenges on issues from WTO to climate change, New Delhi believes BRICS has to protect the rights of the developing countries.
- Escaping Middle Income Trap: While China, India, and Brazil still have very large rural populations, they have made great strides in reducing poverty. Rapid progress in the emerging economies has contributed to growth in middle classes.
- The BRICS cooperation has two pillars — consultations on issues of mutual interest through meetings of leaders and ministers, and cooperation through meetings of senior officials in areas including trade, finance, health, education, technology, agriculture, and IT.
- Platform for proactive engagement with China & Russia: A BRICS helps in resolving some outstanding issues between China, Russia and India like the Doklam crisis.
- India’s foothold in Latin America: In view of India’s growing demand for energy, Latin America’s richness in extractive resources offers a big avaenue. The India-Brazil association in emerging multilateral groupings such as the BRICS and IBSA can be leveraged in this regard.
- Multilateralism, India has articulated a vision for strengthening and reforming the multilateral system itself.
- Anti-terrorism efforts: India has taken the lead in galvanising BRICS has also worked within the grouping to take a strong stand against terrorism and bring about focused consultations on specific aspects relating to terrorism.
- Non-alignment: Many in India see the BRICS forum as a continuation of the past attachment to non-alignment and third worldism.
- Will BRI undermine the BRICS grouping? Two of China’s main BRICS partners—Russia and India—harbor reservations about BRI, while for the other two members (Brazil and South Africa), it is not of such geo-political significance. India can use BRICS platform for critical review of BRI.
Significance of BRICS in the world
- Building a multipolar world has been one of the central themes of India’s foreign policy. BRICS has been the main forum for the pursuit of that objective.
- As a partnership that represents over 40% of the world’s population and accounts for 22% of global GDP, BRICS will continue to be an influential voice as long as its convergences prevail over its divergences.
- South South Cooperation: BRICS is a club of Global South leaders and has potential to expand to other Asian, African and Latin American countries.
- The New Development Bank (NDB) of BRICS: Compared to Western-dominated funding mechanisms like the World Bank, which on average take two years to approve loans, NDB is doing so in just six months and that too by disbursing in local currencies. The idea of development bank (NDB) and Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA) has strengthen BRICS as a grouping.
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During the sixth BRICS summit in Fortaleza in 2014, a decision was taken to establish the New Development Bank (NDB) which aims to mobilise resources for development project in BRICS, emerging economies, and developing countries.
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- Global governance: BRICS has been pushing for deep reforms in global governance.
- BRICS has political benefits. It helps to soften worst-case scenarios stemming from bilateral bad blood. For example, the military face-off between India and China over the Doklam plateau was resolved partly owing to the BRICS summit in Xiamen.
- All BRICS countries oppose Western economic sanctions, restrictions on international trade and migration of skilled personnel that would deprive them of export markets and revenues.
- A revised globalisation chaperoned by BRICS, which includes democracies like India, South Africa and Brazil, is relatively credible.
- Africa, BRICS Plus: The BRICS outreach to Africa began at the last summit hosted by South Africa, in 2013; it has picked up momentum now.
- Sino-Indian cooperation in Africa: Both India and China are engaged in oil exploration in Sudan and Syria.
Concerns:
The critical question is whether BRICS’s exertions will have appreciable impact on G-7, the grouping of the developed countries, which is in disarray, and particularly on the U.S. administration.
Economic crisis in BRICS
- Two of the largest economies in the grouping, China and India, are grappling with the issue of falling exports.
- In the middle of a raging trade war with the US, China has seen a rapid drop in exports.
- India is struggling similarly to propel merchandise exports.
- Moscow, too, witnessed a fall of 4.8 per cent in exports in the first nine months of the calendar year.
- With stalling growth, Brazil is contemplating the release of a comprehensive economic package to revive the private sector.
- The IMF has cut South Africa’s 2019 economic growth forecast by 0.5?percentage points, from 1.2?per cent forecast in April to 0.7?per cent
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- India has to maintain the balancing act between Russia-China on the one side and the US on the other.
- BRICS is still far from achieving its initial goals: reform of global financial governance, democratisation of the United Nations, and expansion of the Security Council — partially because two of its members (China and Russia) do not want the other three members (India, South Africa and Brazil) to obtain parity in the global pecking order.
- Weak institutions and poor governance – each of the BRICS countries faces a unique set of challenges.
- China’s dominance : China’s massive economic weight in the forum has meant the internal balance in the BRICS has changed in favour of Beijing.
- Unclear nature of the group: BRICS is a non-regional grouping that has began as a bloc of emerging economies joining hands for economic purposes but is unable to commit to very many common goals like terrorism.
- Anti-US stature: Moscow saw the BRICS as a way of creating political leverage against the United States and the West, Beijing saw it as an instrument to expand China’s own global economic influence. Delhi is now struggling to come to terms with China-led globalisation.
- India’s play with the BRICS while deepening the strategic partnership with QUAD: But India’s “multi-alignment” has become harder as there are renewed tensions between global powers.
- The new strategic warmth between Moscow and Beijing, and the willingness of both Russia and China to cut deals with the US (on their own terms), makes the BRICS less about ideological posturing, more about repositioning India in changing great power equations.
- Brazilian President Bolsonaro, a hard core nationalist is not likely to be as involved with BRICS as his predecessors were.
- Politically, these countries are not all on the same page : While India and Russia share historically close ties, India-China relations experience swing like a pendulum. Brazil is closer to the USA.
- China’s plan for a “BRICS-Plus” or “Friends of BRICS” grouping: Chinese are planning to include Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Mexico to an expanded version of BRICS. The suggestion of including Pakistan is something India has not liked.
- Russia has moved closer to China and away from India; this could affect the group’s stand on issues like Afghanistan, on which BRICS members had previously been on the same page.
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Russia’s estrangement from the U.S. and Europe post-2014 and the Ukraine crisis in particular have increased its dependence on its east and south, mainly in the direction of the $300 billion Russia-China oil pipeline that China is funding. Russia’s shift on dealing with the Taliban is a strong signal of which way it is headed.
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- Relevance of BRICS could diminish: If BRICS do not discuss economic cooperation between themselves, which can include a potential BRICS trade and investment agreement, the relevance of BRICS will gradually diminish. The BRICS will not be able to discuss trade that much after India’s decision to say no to RCEP.
- Poor performance of NDB: It has not been able to lend for any mega project. Lack of transparency and good governance, coupled with the up-and-down relations among member States as being among the other problems with the bank.
Way forward:
- The members of the BRICS grouping should speak with a stronger voice and not be divided among themselves on the critical issue of achieving the long-pending UN Security Council reform
- India should stand up to China where necessary and cooperating with it where possible.
- India should salvage the essence of the long-standing partnership with Russia but also recognise that Moscow has its own imperatives.
- Promote more business with Brazil: Brazil-India trade stands at just US$ 7 billion as compared to US$ 100 billion with China.
- India while deepening the strategic ties with Washington should also acknowledge BRICS’s sharp internal divisions and the enduring compulsions to find compromises with a rising China.
- The current crop of BRICS leaders too are seen as strong personalities. India views this as a potential for cooperation, as the leaders have more in common than their predecessors.
- India and other BRICS nations should speed up on the path to economic recovery.BRICS nations need to focus on trade and investment as the Intra-BRICS trade is only 15% of the world trade.
- Africa needs big loans from the New Development Bank (NDB) for their infrastructure projects, they should be expedited.
G-20 has a set parameter and doesn’t encompass the aggregate of the hopes and aspirations of the developing world. India should, therefore, use the BRICS forum to project its global profile.