India projected to become the most populous country in the world by 2027 (currently at 1.37 billion). In 2050, India’s population is projected to be 1.69 billion, which will be higher than that of China. Undoubtedly, India has a population problem, but any strategy to change fertility rates should be carefully thought out. India’s population concern is largely restricted to Bihar, UP, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and MP.

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Implications of coercive laws of population control:

• Demographers like Srinivas Goli, a population studies professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, point out, citing the examples of Iran and China.
• Any large-scale “unnatural intervention”, even if purely incentive-based, can dramatically change the future age profile of a population.
• In Iran, in a short span between the late-1980s and early 2000s, the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime plummeted from seven to less than three.
• While population growth rate fell steeply, the share of Iran’s population in the working age band also fell.
• According to a study on the two-child norm (Nirmala Buch, Economic and Political Weekly, 2005) which was adopted by several Indian states like Rajasthan, Haryana and Bihar, the move led to a spike to sex-selective and unsafe abortions.
• Since the state-level laws linked the ability to contest Panchayat or local body elections with family size, the study found that men divorced their wives to run for elections and families put children up for adoption to avoid disqualification.

But, the problems faced due to burgeoning growth of population:

• It is indeed a fact that population of India is growing and will continue to grow for the next couple of decades. This is because, as compared to the past, there are a higher proportion of people in the marriageable age group who will produce children, and people are now living longer.
• In India, the global demand for water in 2050 is projected to be more than 50 per cent of what it was in 2000.
• The demand for food will double in the year 2050 and even if India manages to feed its expanding population, its growth may not be ecologically sustainable.
• Women empowerment as people will not favour for sons because of cap of 2 child policy
• Though China’s one-child policy has been criticized as against human dignity and rights, it has improved and controlled the nation’s population by a possible 400 million people as per the report of East India Forum.
• If Population control won’t happen, there will be no resources left, and the growing population’s demand will increase to the next level, resulting in increasing death rates increasing in the country.

The Right Math behind population growth:

• Simply put, for every 1,000 people, demographers suggest that at least 550 must be of working age, in order to educate the young (below 15) and take care of the old (above 60).
• The government’s Sample Registration System in 22 states shows that TFR for India declined to 2.2 in 2017 after being stable at 2.3 between 2013 and 2016.
• Further, the country’s annual population growth rate fell from 2.5% in 1971-81—a time when ‘population explosion’ was bandied around commonly, and when India infamously experimented with forced sterilisation—to 1.3% in 2011-16.
• Any intervention which doesn’t pay attention to this delicate age composition balance is “ignorant and foolish”
• Success stories from within India (Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh) and from Indonesia and Bangladesh (predominantly Muslim countries) also show the central importance of investing in education and healthcare access to advance population stabilization.
• India will also find it hard to announce a nationally mandated two-child policy since it is a signatory to the Cairo declaration in 1994, which gives couples the “right to decide freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children”.

Conclusion:

Thus, the need of the hour is better education and awareness rather than an iron hand policy to control the population. Government should improve the implementation of poverty alleviation measures which can also help control population.