Food is one of society’s key sensitivities to climate. A year of not enough or too much rainfall, a hot spell or cold snap at the wrong time, or extremes, like flooding and storms, can have a significant effect on local crop yields and livestock production. Climate change is adversely affecting the production of key crops such as wheat and rice, with some countries faring far worse than others. This is as per research, published in the journal PLOS ONE.

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The impacts of climate change on global food production are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa, and Australia, generally positive in Latin America, and mixed in Asia and Northern and Central America. The study found that about half of all food-insecure countries are experiencing decreases in crop production — and so are some affluent industrialised countries in Western Europe.

Crops:

• The world’s top 10 crops — barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat — supply a combined 83 per cent of all calories produced on cropland. Yields have long been projected to decrease in future climate conditions.
• Studies observed that climate change causes a significant yield variation in the world’s top 10 crops, ranging from a decrease of 13.4 per cent for oil palm to an increase of 3.5 per cent for soybean, and resulting in an average reduction of about one per cent of consumable food calories from these top 10 crops.
• Crops like soybean and gram are likely to benefit from higher level of CO2 in atmosphere, which helps in CO2 fertilisation
• A recent study of global vegetable and legume production concluded that if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory, yields could fall by 35 percent by 2100 due to water scarcity and increased salinity and ozone.
• Another new study found that U.S. production of corn (a.k.a. maize), much of which is used to feed livestock and make biofuel, could be cut in half by a 4°C increase in global temperatures—which could happen by 2100 if we don’t reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.

Other food products:

• Climate change will not only affect crops—it will also impact meat production, fisheries and other fundamental aspects of our food supply.
• Heat waves, which are expected to become more frequent, make livestock less fertile and more vulnerable to disease. Dairy cows are especially sensitive to heat, so milk production could decline.
• 540 million people around the world rely on fish for their protein and income—but seafood will be impacted by climate change, too.
• Warmer waters can alter the timing of fish migration and reproduction, and could speed up fish metabolism, resulting in their bodies taking up more mercury.
• Aquaculture of fresh water species is also affected by sea level rise as saltwater can move upstream in rivers. For example, in the Mekong Delta and Irawaddy region of Vietnam and Myanmar, the booming catfish aquaculture could be affected by saltwater intrusion.

Rising Diseases:

• Climate change will also enable weeds, pests and fungi to expand their range and numbers. In addition, earlier springs and milder winters will allow more of these pests and weeds to survive for a longer time.
• For example, new virulent mutant strains of wheat rust, a fungal infection that had not been seen for over 50 years, have spread from Africa to Asia, the Middle East and Europe, devastating crops.

Economic losses:

• The world population is expected to grow to almost 10 billion by 2050. With 3.4 billion more mouths to feed, and the growing desire of the middle class for meat and dairy in developing countries, global demand for food could increase by between 59 and 98 percent.
• Immediate impact on supply, causing price shocks and volatility that spread across sectors and borders.
• A severe summer drought in 2012 reduced shipping traffic on the Mississippi River, a major route for transporting crops from the Midwest. The decrease in barge traffic resulted in significant food and economic losses. Flooding which followed in the spring caused additional delays in food transport.

Groundwater:

• Groundwater depletion is a slow-building pressure on our food system.
• About 10 percent of the crops grown in the world’s major food production regions are irrigated with groundwater that is non-renewable.
• Aquifers are being drained faster than they’re refilling—a problem which will only get worse as the world continues to heat up.
• This is happening in major food producing regions such as the U.S. Great Plains and California’s Central Valley, and in Pakistan, India, northeastern China, and parts of Iran and Iraq.

Impacts on India’s agriculture profile due to climate change:

• India is fortunate to have the monsoon, but it is also uniquely vulnerable to rising temperatures.
• India is ranked 14th on the Global Climate Risk Index 2019.
• With rain-fed agriculture practised in over 67% of our total crop area, weather variability can lead to heavy costs, especially for coarse grains (which are mostly grown in rain-fed areas).
• According to one estimate, they may face a 24-58% decline in household income and 12-33% rise in household poverty through exacerbated droughts.
• India has over 120 million hectares suffering from some form of degradation.
• Rise in average temperatures would significantly impact our kharif crops.
• Any significant decline in summer rains would devastate Indian agriculture. Climate change related phenomena have consequences, especially for marginal farmers.
• They potentially face a huge decline in household income and rise in household poverty through exacerbated droughts.

Way forward:

• Enhancing the resilience of agriculture to cope with the climate change and the climate variability.
• Increasing area under permaculture could result in a total reduction of gigatons ofCO2, from both sequestration and reduced emissions.
• Applying Farm yard Manure, compost or by practising organic farming to improve the soil organic matter which can help in improvement of soil health.
• Develop climate-smart agriculture practices.
• Adoption of Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF) and Organic farming.
• Building on the current crop insurance program, weather-based models and technology need to be used to determine losses and compensate farmers within weeks (Kenya does it in a few days).
• Farmers, especially smallholder farmers, need advance warning of emergent weather conditions at local level.
• Farmers can adapt to climate changes by shifting planting dates and choosing varieties with different growth duration.
• Interventions related to soil health, water harvesting, improved drainage in flood prone area, artificial ground water recharge and water saving irrigation methods.
• An Early warning system should be put in place to monitor changes in pest and disease outbreaks.
• Promoting Drought / temperature tolerant varieties and water saving paddy cultivation methods (System of Rice Intensification (SRI)).
• Investment in R&D is needed to spur innovations in sustainable climate-friendly and climate-proof productivity, and the private sector can help on this.